Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELETEs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>At present, I do not see any changes for the SENSEX index. For the BSE 100 and BSE 200 indices I see six and five changes respectively.</li>
<li>Some of these changes are different from those expected in my last insight. However, the changes expected in <em>this</em> insight will be my final expectations for the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELETEs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.
At present, I do not see any changes for the SENSEX index. For the BSE 100 and BSE 200 indices I see six and five changes respectively.
Some of these changes are different from those expected in my last insight. However, the changes expected in this insight will be my final expectations for the December 2023 Rebalance.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 23: Bandhan Bank Could Underperform State Bank

India BFSI - Long-Short - Equity Research Analyst

Raj S, CA, CFA

Artoval Advisors

Art’o’val stands for Art of Valuation. Artoval Advisors LLP is a professionally run advisory firm catering to various financial advisory services including Valuation, Investment Research, Training, Accounting, CFO Services and other ancillary services.

We are passionate about what we do and strongly believe in working with our clients as their extended teams. With Artoval Advisors as their trusted partner, our clients find it easy to achieve efficiency in service delivery without compromising on quality.

True Art of Valuation

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In its recent result, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> did not report the kind of improvement in asset quality in its core Microfinance segment that we were hoping to see.</li>
<li>Fresh slippages into overdue accounts did not slow down as anticipated; NPA levels remained elevated; Loan growth is below the target run-rate.</li>
<li>We anticipate the recovery to be drawn out, and hence suggest keeping patience. But  we maintain our long-term valuation of Bandhan Bank unchanged at 2.1x FY25e P/BV, implying +56% upside.</li>
</ul>


In its recent result, Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) did not report the kind of improvement in asset quality in its core Microfinance segment that we were hoping to see.
Fresh slippages into overdue accounts did not slow down as anticipated; NPA levels remained elevated; Loan growth is below the target run-rate.
We anticipate the recovery to be drawn out, and hence suggest keeping patience. But  we maintain our long-term valuation of Bandhan Bank unchanged at 2.1x FY25e P/BV, implying +56% upside.


Bandhan Bank: Not Yet, Not Yet! (2Q24 Update)

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>We visit the 'City of Joy,' Kolkata, to understand the state of the industry, focusing on microfinance and the status of lenders concentrated in the region.</li>
<li>Multiple factors argue for a cyclical bottom for lenders operating in West Bengal and Assam. </li>
<li>We have been positive on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN), </a>but it is a play on cyclicality rather than a complete turnaround &amp; transformation of its habits.</li>
</ul>


We visit the 'City of Joy,' Kolkata, to understand the state of the industry, focusing on microfinance and the status of lenders concentrated in the region.
Multiple factors argue for a cyclical bottom for lenders operating in West Bengal and Assam. 
We have been positive on Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN), but it is a play on cyclicality rather than a complete turnaround &amp; transformation of its habits.


Postcard from Kolkata | Can Old Habits Die Easy?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>This is at a time a shocker and at a time, not. Because of rising regulatory requirements for NBFCs, this was to be expected at some point.</li>
<li>The deal pays Limited shareholders a slight premium vs previous close, but enables them to exit without a holdco discount. </li>
<li>Early days yet regulatorily speaking, but accretive, and it makes a lot of sense. It will be appreciated. </li>
</ul>


This is at a time a shocker and at a time, not. Because of rising regulatory requirements for NBFCs, this was to be expected at some point.
The deal pays Limited shareholders a slight premium vs previous close, but enables them to exit without a holdco discount. 
Early days yet regulatorily speaking, but accretive, and it makes a lot of sense. It will be appreciated. 


Shocker! HDFC Bank To Merge With HDFC Limited

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> has seen its NPL ratio decline dramatically over the past several years, which is at complete odds with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> </li>
<li>Net profit is nearly 50% lower for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> moved from a loss to the best profit on record </li>
<li>The loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> has come down from over 200% to 100%, but remains high; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> is gently widening to 77%</li>
</ul>



Canara Bank (CBK IN) has seen its NPL ratio decline dramatically over the past several years, which is at complete odds with Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) 
Net profit is nearly 50% lower for Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) while Canara Bank (CBK IN) moved from a loss to the best profit on record 
The loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) has come down from over 200% to 100%, but remains high; Canara Bank (CBK IN) is gently widening to 77%


India Banks - Divergent Trends at Canara and Bandhan Fundamentally Support NIFTY Bank Rebalancing

India

Punjab & Sind Bank is a commercial bank. The Bank offers its customers a wide range of banking products and services.

PNB Housing Finance Ltd. (PNBHFL) provides lending services. The Company offers housing loans to individuals and corporate bodies for construction, purchase, repair, and upgradation of houses, as well as loans for commercial space, loan against property, and loan for purchase of residential plots. PNBHFL serves customers in India.

Federal Bank Limited operates branches and regional offices throughout India. The Bank offers a wide range of financial services, including merchant banking, international banking and foreign exchange, leasing facilities, money markets and agricultural advances. The Bank also provides lending for hi-tech agricultural and government sponsored schemes.

Bank of Maharashtra Ltd. provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury & NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities. Bank of Maharashtra also sponsors regional rural banks jointly with the Central Government and State Government.

Karur Vysya Bank Ltd. provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and institutional customers. The Bank offers mutual funds, insurance, personal loan, fixed deposits, internet banking, gold and silver, lockers, credit cards, and agricultural finance. Karur Vysya Bank serves customers throughout India.

RBL Bank Limited operates as a commercial bank. The Company offers banking products and services such as savings accounts, fixed deposits, personal and business loans, debit and credit cards, insurance, investment management, and mobile banking. RBL Bank serves customers throughout India.

AU Small Finance Bank Limited operates as a commercial bank. The Bank offers financial products and services such as savings and current accounts, term deposits, debit cards, insurance, government banking, retail loans, and microfinance lending. AU Small Finance Bank serves customers in India.

AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN)

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Limited operates as a bank. The Company offers various types of financial services such as saving account, deposits, loans, and insurance solutions. Ujjivan Small Finance Bank serves customers in India.

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank  (UJJIVANS IN)

The Jammu & Kashmir Bank Limited provides banking services, including CD's, educational loans, housing loans and car loans.  The Bank also provides insurance services through a joint venture with MetLife India Insurance Company. The Group has about 475 branches throughout India.

City Union Bank Ltd. is a full service bank. The Bank offers a wide range of banking and financial services across India, including both domestic and International banking services.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation provides banking services. The Bank checking accounts, lending, credit cards, online and mobile banking, and wealth and treasury management services. Atlantic Union Bankshares serves customers in the United States.

International Bancshares Corporation, through its bank subsidiaries, provides commercial and retail banking services through offices in south and southeast Texas.  The Bank accepts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to make a variety of loans.

Fulton Financial Corporation is a multi-bank holding company. The Banks offer a full range of general retail and commercial banking services, including deposits, loans, equipment leasing and financing, and credit cards. Fulton operates in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.

The Bank of East Asia, Limited and its subsidiaries provide general banking, related financial, business corporate, and investor services.

Huishang Bank Corporation Limited is a commercial bank. The Bank provides banking services including loans, money market operations, treasury business, investment and trading services, and valet transactions.

Taichung Commercial Bank conducts commercial banking and trust business.  The Bank accepts deposits, offers loans, as well as  invests in bonds and stocks. Taichung Commercial Banks provides bills and notes discounting, draft endorsement, domestic remittance, guarantee, and securities underwriting and brokerage services.

The Bank of Kyoto, Ltd. is a regional bank in Kyoto.  The Bank provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments.  The Bank of Kyoto also provides financial services such as letter of credit, leasing, loans, and credit cards.

Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad is a banking and financial services holding company. The Company provides a range of services including commercial and consumer banking, investment banking, and insurance broking. Through its subsidiaries, Hong Leong Financial underwrites life/general insurance, provides funds management, corporate advisory, and stock and share broking services.

Ameris Bancorp is a multi-bank holding company. The Banks provide a broad range of retail and commercial banking services to its customers, including checking and savings deposits, commercial and consumer loans, trust services, discount brokerage services, and electronic funds transfer services. Ameris Bancorp operates in Georgia, Florida, and Alabama.

United Community Banks, Inc. is a multi-bank holding company with locations throughout north Georgia and western North Carolina.  The Banks are community oriented and offer retail and corporate banking services including checking, savings, and time deposit accounts, secured and unsecured loans, wire transfers, trust services, and rental of safe deposit boxes.

Bandhan Bank Limited operates as a commercial bank. The Bank provides accounts checking, savings deposits, money market, mortgage, and term loans services, as well as card facilities and Internet banking services. Bandhan Bank serves customers in India.

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Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: Bandhan Bank Could Underperform State Bank

The BSE SENSEX and BSE 100 index changes for Dec 23 could be announced in a few days. This might be good time to revisit Quiddity's final...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Bandhan Bank: Not Yet, Not Yet! (2Q24 Update)

We anticipate the turn-around story of Bandhan Bank to be more drawn out given this result. We retain our Bullish stance, continuing from our...

Raj S, CA, CFA

Postcard from Kolkata | Can Old Habits Die Easy?

The microfinance industry and lenders in West Bengal and Assam may be reaching a cyclical bottom, with Bandhan Bank Ltd as a potential play on this...

Pranav Bhavsar

Shocker! HDFC Bank To Merge With HDFC Limited

HDFC Limited and HDFC Bank announced a surprise" Scheme of Amalgamation this morning. It offers a slight premium, and lots of synergies, but most...

Travis Lundy

India Banks - Divergent Trends at Canara and Bandhan Fundamentally Support NIFTY Bank Rebalancing

The Nifty Bank rebalancing that may see Bandhan Bank replaced by Canara Bank is a rebalancing that is also supported by divergent fundamentals, on...

Daniel Tabbush

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Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 23: Bandhan Bank Could Underperform State Bank

The BSE SENSEX and BSE 100 index changes for Dec 23 could be announced in a few days. This might be good time to revisit Quiddity's final...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Bandhan Bank: Not Yet, Not Yet! (2Q24 Update)

We anticipate the turn-around story of Bandhan Bank to be more drawn out given this result. We retain our Bullish stance, continuing from our...

Raj S, CA, CFA

Postcard from Kolkata | Can Old Habits Die Easy?

The microfinance industry and lenders in West Bengal and Assam may be reaching a cyclical bottom, with Bandhan Bank Ltd as a potential play on this...

Pranav Bhavsar

Shocker! HDFC Bank To Merge With HDFC Limited

HDFC Limited and HDFC Bank announced a surprise" Scheme of Amalgamation this morning. It offers a slight premium, and lots of synergies, but most...

Travis Lundy

India Banks - Divergent Trends at Canara and Bandhan Fundamentally Support NIFTY Bank Rebalancing

The Nifty Bank rebalancing that may see Bandhan Bank replaced by Canara Bank is a rebalancing that is also supported by divergent fundamentals, on...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: Bandhan Bank Could Underperform State Bank