Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.</li>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.</li>
<li>With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.
Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.
With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).


Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a>'s scheme meeting is scheduled for 3 November. The IE considers the A$5.23 per share offer fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The key condition is approval from shareholders - headcount test and approval by at least 75% of the votes cast on the scheme resolution. Cooke has received FIRB approval.</li>
<li>We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 21 November implementation date, the gross and annualised spread is 1.2% and 8.8%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Tassal (TGR AU)'s scheme meeting is scheduled for 3 November. The IE considers the A$5.23 per share offer fair and reasonable.
The key condition is approval from shareholders - headcount test and approval by at least 75% of the votes cast on the scheme resolution. Cooke has received FIRB approval.
We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 21 November implementation date, the gross and annualised spread is 1.2% and 8.8%, respectively.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a> entered a scheme implementation deed with Cooke at A$5.23 per share, a 48.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$3.52.</li>
<li>The offer price is an all-time share price high. The scheme is not subject to due diligence or a financing condition. Cooke also noted that it had received FIRB approval.</li>
<li>This is a done deal. At last close and for year-end payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 1.8% and 4.6%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Tassal (TGR AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Cooke at A$5.23 per share, a 48.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$3.52.
The offer price is an all-time share price high. The scheme is not subject to due diligence or a financing condition. Cooke also noted that it had received FIRB approval.
This is a done deal. At last close and for year-end payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 1.8% and 4.6%, respectively.


<ul>
<li>On 19 July, Cooke, the spurned suitor, increased its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a> to 10.49%. The average price to build the 10.49% stake is A$4.14 per share. </li>
<li>Cooke also hired Phil Wiese, the former CEO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huon-aquaculture-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12348:1" rel="noopener">Huon Aquaculture (HUO AU)</a>, as a MD in Canada. Mr Wiese is well qualified to run Tassal should Cooke acquire it. </li>
<li>With shareholders happy to sell to Cooke despite the Board’s assertions that the previous bid undervalued Tassal, a new offer will force the Board to engage.</li>
</ul>


On 19 July, Cooke, the spurned suitor, increased its stake in Tassal (TGR AU) to 10.49%. The average price to build the 10.49% stake is A$4.14 per share. 
Cooke also hired Phil Wiese, the former CEO of Huon Aquaculture (HUO AU), as a MD in Canada. Mr Wiese is well qualified to run Tassal should Cooke acquire it. 
With shareholders happy to sell to Cooke despite the Board’s assertions that the previous bid undervalued Tassal, a new offer will force the Board to engage.


Tassal: Cooke Increases Its Stake to 10.49%

Norway

Bakkafrost P/F operates a fish farm. The Company offers a wide range of salmon products supplied by its own processing facilities. Bakkafrost provides fresh salmon to the fresh fish market, smokehouses and processors of ready meals, and frozen salmon portions vacuum packed in catering boxes or in retailboxes.

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Bakkafrost P/F (BAKKA NO)

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

Tassal Scheme Meeting on 3 November

This looks like a done deal. At the last close price and for the 21 November implementation date, the annualised spread is 8.8%.

Arun George

Tassal Recommends Cooke’s A$5.23 Offer

This is a done deal. At last close and for year-end payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 1.8% and 4.6%, respectively.

Arun George

Tassal: Cooke Increases Its Stake to 10.49%

Cooke has increased its stake in Tassal to 10.49%. With shareholders happy to sell despite the Board’s assertions that Cooke's bid undervalued...

Arun George

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