Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8950:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Finance (BAF)</a> reported a strong Q1FY24 earnings, led by an all-time-high quarterly AUM growth of INR 22718cr. With this, BAF has upgraded its FY24 AUM growth guidance to 29-31%.</li>
<li>AUM growth was aided by the highest ever new loans in a quarter. New loans booked at 9.94mm in Q1FY24 were up 34% YoY and 31%+ QoQ.</li>
<li>Opex-To-NII has come down to 34.0% vs 35%+ earlier, led by operational leverage and deceleration in investments. This has helped the ROE to jump to 24.0% vs 23.1% YoY.</li>
</ul>



Bajaj Finance (BAF) reported a strong Q1FY24 earnings, led by an all-time-high quarterly AUM growth of INR 22718cr. With this, BAF has upgraded its FY24 AUM growth guidance to 29-31%.
AUM growth was aided by the highest ever new loans in a quarter. New loans booked at 9.94mm in Q1FY24 were up 34% YoY and 31%+ QoQ.
Opex-To-NII has come down to 34.0% vs 35%+ earlier, led by operational leverage and deceleration in investments. This has helped the ROE to jump to 24.0% vs 23.1% YoY.


Bajaj Finance: Strong Q1FY24 Earnings - Guidance Upgraded

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Using the current index methodology throws up 5 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in September. Turnover will be BIG.</li>
<li>Using the proposed index methodology throws up 11 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in September. Turnover will be HUGE.</li>
<li>The market consultation being put on hold could indicate pushback from index users or the possibility of F&amp;O contracts being introduced on some of the non-F&amp;O index constituents.</li>
</ul>


Using the current index methodology throws up 5 changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September. Turnover will be BIG.
Using the proposed index methodology throws up 11 changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September. Turnover will be HUGE.
The market consultation being put on hold could indicate pushback from index users or the possibility of F&amp;O contracts being introduced on some of the non-F&amp;O index constituents.


NIFTY/NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Loads of Changes if Proposed Methodology Is Implemented

<ul>
<li>It was a busy week with index rebalance implementations and announcements of index changes.</li>
<li>The coming week has the KOSPI200 and KOSDAQ150 rebalancing on Thursday and a bunch of onshore China indices rebalancing on Friday.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to China ETFs during the week while the largest inflows went to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)</a> ETF.</li>
</ul>


It was a busy week with index rebalance implementations and announcements of index changes.
The coming week has the KOSPI200 and KOSDAQ150 rebalancing on Thursday and a bunch of onshore China indices rebalancing on Friday.
There were big inflows to China ETFs during the week while the largest inflows went to the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) ETF.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300/500, Chinext, China Semi Chips, Nifty Next50, SET50, REMX

<ul>
<li>NSE Indices have started a market consultation on dropping stocks that are not a part of the Futures &amp; Options segment from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>This will be done in two phases with a weight reduction for non-F&amp;O stocks in June and deletion from the index in September.</li>
<li>That will result in 11 inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in September and bring in a lot of flow to the stocks.</li>
</ul>


NSE Indices have started a market consultation on dropping stocks that are not a part of the Futures &amp; Options segment from the Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX). 
This will be done in two phases with a weight reduction for non-F&amp;O stocks in June and deletion from the index in September.
That will result in 11 inclusions to the Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September and bring in a lot of flow to the stocks.


NIFTY NEXT 50 Index Market Consultation: Non-F&O Stocks Could Be Dropped

Asia Consumer Research, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Asia Consumer Research

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Bajaj Holdings and Investment / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-holdings-and-investment-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11930:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Holdings and Investment (BJHI IN)</a> is expected to be included in the MSCI India Index at the November SAIR (Read more about the index inclusion here: <a href="https://skr.ma/xhbPx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://skr.ma/xhbPx</a>)</li>
<li>Bajaj Holdings, a holding and investment company, with significant stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-finserv-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5669:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Finserv </a>has historically traded at a steep discount to the market value of investments. </li>
<li>Its Holdco discount has narrowed to around 53%  and has the potential to narrow further with greater ownership and visibility post the likely index inclusion.</li>
</ul>



Bajaj Holdings and Investment (BJHI IN) is expected to be included in the MSCI India Index at the November SAIR (Read more about the index inclusion here: https://skr.ma/xhbPx)
Bajaj Holdings, a holding and investment company, with significant stakes in Bajaj Auto Ltd and Bajaj Finserv has historically traded at a steep discount to the market value of investments. 
Its Holdco discount has narrowed to around 53%  and has the potential to narrow further with greater ownership and visibility post the likely index inclusion.


Bajaj Holdings (BJHI IN): Potential Index Inclusion Can Narrow Hold Co. Discount Further

India

Rural Electrification Corporation Limited engages in the financing and promotion of transmission, distribution and generation projects in India. The Company provides funding to clients to assist them in formulating and implementing various types of power project-related schemes.

Aditya Birla Capital Limited (ABCL) provides financial services. The Company offers life and health insurance, private equity, corporate lending, structured finance, asset and wealth management, currency and commodity brokerage, online personal finance management, housing finance, pension funds, and other financial services. ABCL serves customers in India.

L&T Finance Holdings Limited is a financial holding company. The Company offers a diverse range of financial products and services across the corporate, retail, and infrastructure finance sectors, as well as fund products and investment services.

Power Finance Corporation funds power projects in India.  The Company serves state power utilities, central power sector utilities, power departments, private power sector utilities, joint sector power utilities, power equipment manufacturers, and municipal power utilities.

Piramal Enterprises Limited provides diversified commercial services. The Company offers pharmaceutical production and distribution, real estate, healthcare insights and analysis, and financial services. Piramal Enterprises serves customers globally.

IDFC Limited offers infrastructure project financing services.  The Company primarily finances energy, telecommunications, and transportation projects.

IFCI Limited provides medium and long-term credits to industrial concerns in India.

Aavas Financiers Limited provides consumer finance services. The Company offers home, land purchase, construction, home improvement, balance transfer, and business loans. Aavas Financiers serves customers in India.

Shriram Finance Limited provides consumer finance services. The Company offers automobile, commercial vehicle, business, and gold loan services. Shriram Finance serves customers in India.

Tourism Finance Corporation of India Limited specializes in tourism related business. The Group works in association with the Government of India, in order to create and develop projects to help with accommodations and hospitality services, car rental services, ferries for water transport, highway facilities and training institutes for hotel personnel.

Mitsubishi HC Capital Inc. provides customer finance services. The Company leases machinery and equipment, aircraft and ships, office buildings, and more. Mitsubishi HC Capital serves clients across worldwide.

Meritz Financial Group Inc is a holding company of Meritz Securities, Meritz Asset Management, Meritz Financial Information Service and et cetera. The Company manages and controls its financial subsidiaries.

Industrivarden AB is an investment company.  The Company's holdings consists of a portfolio of listed Nordic industrial companies.

L E Lundbergforetagen AB is a real estate and investment company.  The Company owns,  develops, rents out, and manages commercial and residential properties located in central Sweden.  Lundbergs is also a long term investor in mostly publicly traded Swedish companies.  The Company takes an active ownership role in the companies.  Moreover Lundbergs is engaged in securities trading.

Equitable Holdings, Inc. is an independent U.S.-based financial services company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides advice, protection, retirement strategies, and investment-management and research.

Chailease Holding Co Ltd provides financing services such as leasing, installment sale, import/export factoring and direct financing.

Banca Mediolanum S.p.A. provides banking services. The Bank, through its component companies, provides banking, financial, insurance, retirement, and real estate products and services. Banca Mediolanum operates in Italy.

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert S.A. is a holding company with interests in energy, media, and utility companies.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces petroleum, manufactures chemicals, operates gasoline filling stations, owns and operates television and radio stations, supplies water, generates and transports electricity, transports natural gas, and offers waste management services.

Sofina SA is a holding company that invests in energy, finance, insurance, real estate, distribution, services companies and telecommunications.  The Companies are of the European Union nations, the United States, Canada and the Far East.

Element Fleet Management Corp. operates as a fleet management company. The Company offers car and light duty vehicles, material handling equipment, medium, and heavy duty trucks. Element Fleet Management serves customers in the United States and Canada.

Bajaj Holdings and Investment Ltd. is an investment company. The Company investments include strategic investments and investments in government securities, bonds, debentures and mutual funds.

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Bajaj Holdings and Investment (BJHI IN)

Bajaj Finance: Strong Q1FY24 Earnings - Guidance Upgraded

BAF reported a strong Q1FY24 with record AUM growth and customer acquisition, leading it to upgrade its FY24 guidance. At current valuation, BAF...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

NIFTY/NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Loads of Changes if Proposed Methodology Is Implemented

There could be 5 changes with the current methodology or 11 with the proposed methodology. Turnover will be big in both cases. There is a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300/500, Chinext, China Semi Chips, Nifty Next50, SET50, REMX

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY NEXT 50 Index Market Consultation: Non-F&O Stocks Could Be Dropped

A market consultation could lead to the deletion of non-F&O stocks from the NIFTY NEXT50 index in September. That means 11 new index members and...

Brian Freitas

Bajaj Holdings (BJHI IN): Potential Index Inclusion Can Narrow Hold Co. Discount Further

Holdco discount, currently at 53% of NAV, has the potential to narrow further with greater ownership and visibility post the likely index inclusion

Devi Subhakesan

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