Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Exposure in Indian Financials has reached peak levels among Asia Ex-Japan managers.  A key overweight, 77% of Asia Ex-Japan managers are now positioned above benchmark.</li>
<li>HDFC Bank Limited is the most widely held stock, with Housing Development Finance Corp, ICICI Bank Limited and Kotak Mahindra well held stocks and net overweights in Asia Ex-Japan portfolios</li>
<li>HDFC Bank Limited is a key holding for many investors, with the bulk of allocations above 2% and high conviction positions well above that</li>
</ul>


Exposure in Indian Financials has reached peak levels among Asia Ex-Japan managers.  A key overweight, 77% of Asia Ex-Japan managers are now positioned above benchmark.
HDFC Bank Limited is the most widely held stock, with Housing Development Finance Corp, ICICI Bank Limited and Kotak Mahindra well held stocks and net overweights in Asia Ex-Japan portfolios
HDFC Bank Limited is a key holding for many investors, with the bulk of allocations above 2% and high conviction positions well above that


Indian Financials: Momentum Returns to Key Overweight

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited provides investment services. The Company provides corporate and investment banking, securities, wealth management, retail brokerage, initial public offerings, and advisory services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Bajaj Finserv (Finserv) is a financial conglomerate with a holding in the financing business (Bajaj Finance), life insurance (Bajaj Life Insurance) and general insurance (Bajaj General Insurance) business</li><li>Consistent, faster business growth and profitability remains in focus</li><li>Target Price and Valuation: Rolling valuation to FY24E and increasing discount to 15%, we value Finserv at ~39x FY24E EPS and assign target price at Rs 20000/ share.</li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Bajaj Finserv (Finserv) is a financial conglomerate with a holding in the financing business (Bajaj Finance), life insurance (Bajaj Life Insurance) and general insurance (Bajaj General Insurance) businessConsistent, faster business growth and profitability remains in focusTarget Price and Valuation: Rolling valuation to FY24E and increasing discount to 15%, we value Finserv at ~39x FY24E EPS and assign target price at Rs 20000/ share.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bajaj Finserv Ltd: Revival in Finance Segment; Outlook Stays Optimistic

<p>About the stock: Bajaj Finserv (Finserv) is a financial conglomerate with a holding in the financing business (Bajaj Finance), life insurance (Bajaj Life Insurance) and general insurance (Bajaj General Insurance) business.</p><ul><li>Consistent, faster business growth and profitability remains in focus</li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

About the stock: Bajaj Finserv (Finserv) is a financial conglomerate with a holding in the financing business (Bajaj Finance), life insurance (Bajaj Life Insurance) and general insurance (Bajaj General Insurance) business.Consistent, faster business growth and profitability remains in focusContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bajaj Finserv: Elevated Provisioning, Higher Claims Impact PAT

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (NTL TB)</a>/TIDLOR is the leading auto-for-cash loan provider in Thailand with a 16% market share as measured by the outstanding vehicle title loans in 2019, according to Oliver Wyman. TIDLOR is an affiliate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-ayudhya-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:136:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Ayudhya (BAY TB)</a> (Krungsri), which is a strategic member of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a>. </p><p>At the IPO price range of THB34.00-36.50, TIDLOR will raise total gross proceeds of THB30.9-33.1 billion ($1.0-1.1 billion). The offer comprises a primary/secondary spilt of 23:77. A total of 32 domestic and foreign cornerstone investors will subscribe for a total of 626.0 million shares or 69.0% of the offer shares. The foreign cornerstone investors include FIL Investment Management, JP Morgan Asset Management, Lion Global Investors and Neuberger Berman. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ngern-tid-lor-ipo-initiation-finance-on-four-wheels" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50448" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor IPO Initiation: Finance on Four Wheels</a>, we noted that the timing of the IPO is not ideal as a new COVID-19 outbreak has swept through Thailand. Nevertheless, for investors willing to ride the current market uncertainty, we believe that TIDLOR is well placed to capture the long-term opportunity of Thailand’s vehicle title loan market. Our valuation analysis suggests that TIDLOR is fairly valued at the proposed IPO price range.     </p></div>

Ngern Tid Lor (NTL TB)/TIDLOR is the leading auto-for-cash loan provider in Thailand with a 16% market share as measured by the outstanding vehicle title loans in 2019, according to Oliver Wyman. TIDLOR is an affiliate of Bank Of Ayudhya (BAY TB) (Krungsri), which is a strategic member of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP). At the IPO price range of THB34.00-36.50, TIDLOR will raise total gross proceeds of THB30.9-33.1 billion ($1.0-1.1 billion). The offer comprises a primary/secondary spilt of 23:77. A total of 32 domestic and foreign cornerstone investors will subscribe for a total of 626.0 million shares or 69.0% of the offer shares. The foreign cornerstone investors include FIL Investment Management, JP Morgan Asset Management, Lion Global Investors and Neuberger Berman. In Ngern Tid Lor IPO Initiation: Finance on Four Wheels, we noted that the timing of the IPO is not ideal as a new COVID-19 outbreak has swept through Thailand. Nevertheless, for investors willing to ride the current market uncertainty, we believe that TIDLOR is well placed to capture the long-term opportunity of Thailand’s vehicle title loan market. Our valuation analysis suggests that TIDLOR is fairly valued at the proposed IPO price range.     

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<p><strong><em>*Pre-release Says Nothing About Capital And Credit: </em></strong>Bajaj Finance (BAF.IN) [Bajaj] released a FY 4Q21 balance sheet update, ahead of its scheduled earnings update. Key highlights were limited to: AUM growth; new customer acquisition; and deposit growth; and  </p><p><strong><em>*Credit Challenges Far From Over With: </em></strong>The day of reckoning is coming for Bajaj as net new NPLs amounted to INR 23.0 bn during FY 3Q21 – increasing at 520% on an annualized basis. By our calculation, reserves need to increase INR 177 bn or nearly 8x - representing nearly three years of PBT and over 50% of shareholder’s equity.</p>

*Pre-release Says Nothing About Capital And Credit: Bajaj Finance (BAF.IN) [Bajaj] released a FY 4Q21 balance sheet update, ahead of its scheduled earnings update. Key highlights were limited to: AUM growth; new customer acquisition; and deposit growth; and  *Credit Challenges Far From Over With: The day of reckoning is coming for Bajaj as net new NPLs amounted to INR 23.0 bn during FY 3Q21 – increasing at 520% on an annualized basis. By our calculation, reserves need to increase INR 177 bn or nearly 8x - representing nearly three years of PBT and over 50% of shareholder’s equity.

India

Bajaj Finserv Ltd. is currently engaged in life insurance; general insurance and consumer finance businesses and has plans to expand its business by offering a wide array of financial products and services in India. The Company is also active in wind-energy generation.

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Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN)

Indian Financials: Momentum Returns to Key Overweight

Exposure in Indian Financials has reached peak levels among Asia Ex-Japan managers. A key overweight, 77% of Asia Ex-Japan managers are now...

Steven Holden

Bajaj Finserv Ltd: Revival in Finance Segment; Outlook Stays Optimistic

Bajaj Finserv (Finserv) is a financial conglomerate with a holding in the financing business (Bajaj Finance), life insurance (Bajaj Life Insurance)...

ICICI Securities Limited

Bajaj Finserv: Elevated Provisioning, Higher Claims Impact PAT

Bajaj Finserv (Finserv) is a financial conglomerate with a holding in the financing business (Bajaj Finance), life insurance (Bajaj Life Insurance)...

ICICI Securities Limited

Ngern Tid Lor IPO: Valuation Insights

At the IPO price range of THB34.00-36.50, TIDLOR will raise total gross proceeds of $1.0-1.1 billion. Our valuation analysis suggests that TIDLOR...

Arun George

Bajaj Finance – Who’s Kidding Whom?

BAJAJ FINANCE: Bajaj gave a FY 4Q21 update on AUM; customer acquisition; and deposit growth. No disclosure on how it will deal with India's worst...

Thomas J. Monaco

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