China, Emerging Markets

Ryan Soh 苏祥发

Equity Bottom-Up

In this Part 1 of a two-part series, I size up Baidu by market cap and market share, and get dragged into sizing up Alibaba as well. Baidu's market cap is $86bn, roughly 1/8th of Google's, and 1/5th of Alibaba or Tencent. Baidu is losing market share, if we define it as advertising revenue. Most of Alibaba's revenue comes from advertising, so this makes them direct competitors - and Alibaba's winning.Alibaba is a monster. It's operating difficulties abroad should be balanced against dominance at home.

In this Part 1 of a two-part series, I size up Baidu by market cap and market share, and get dragged into sizing up Alibaba as well. Baidu's market cap is $86bn, roughly 1/8th of Google's, and 1/5th of Alibaba or Tencent. Baidu is losing market share, if we define it as advertising revenue. Most of Alibaba's revenue comes from advertising, so this makes them direct competitors - and Alibaba's winning.Alibaba is a monster. It's operating difficulties abroad should be balanced against dominance at home.

Sizing up Baidu (And Alibaba), Part 1 of 2

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>AI is the next big computing wave. </h2>After transitioning from mainframes to PCs to servers to Cloud-based data centres, computing is about to make another transition: Artificial intelligence (AI) is the next computing wave. As demand for chips from the PC and smartphone industry subsides, demand for high-end processors to power AI-based platforms such as voice interfaces, robots, augmented reality, driverless cars, smart homes and advanced cybersecurity systems will rise. This new semiconductor industry is led by Microsoft, Google, Apple and Huawei. They increasingly tell their merchant suppliers what chips to make or do it better themselves, building custom, algorithmic chips and creating their own AI supercomputers in the Cloud.And Intel has got the message.So how should investors respond?

AI is the next big computing wave. After transitioning from mainframes to PCs to servers to Cloud-based data centres, computing is about to make another transition: Artificial intelligence (AI) is the next computing wave. As demand for chips from the PC and smartphone industry subsides, demand for high-end processors to power AI-based platforms such as voice interfaces, robots, augmented reality, driverless cars, smart homes and advanced cybersecurity systems will rise. This new semiconductor industry is led by Microsoft, Google, Apple and Huawei. They increasingly tell their merchant suppliers what chips to make or do it better themselves, building custom, algorithmic chips and creating their own AI supercomputers in the Cloud.And Intel has got the message.So how should investors respond?

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>We’ve seen a number of advertising sector profit warnings from Dentsu to WPP amid signs that key clients across the FMCG sector are questioning the payback from digital advertising.</li>
<li>Indeed, Google has begun offering refunds to advertisers for fraudulent traffic driven by ‘click bots’, but stricter EU data privacy rules and the rise of ad blocking software are additional threats.</li>
<li>The ad sector risks being disintermediated as increasingly cost conscious brands facing rising EM competition create…</li>
</ul>


We’ve seen a number of advertising sector profit warnings from Dentsu to WPP amid signs that key clients across the FMCG sector are questioning the payback from digital advertising.
Indeed, Google has begun offering refunds to advertisers for fraudulent traffic driven by ‘click bots’, but stricter EU data privacy rules and the rise of ad blocking software are additional threats.
The ad sector risks being disintermediated as increasingly cost conscious brands facing rising EM competition create…


Advertising Industry Gets Disrupted, as Central Bankers Fly Blind…

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Summary of finding the beneficiaries</h2>After our recent discussions with two cloud data center experts, we conclude a rising requirement on faster and more NVME (Non-Volatile Memory Express) SSD flash storages, networking I/O cards, and AI used GPU/FPGA/TPU cards (please see Table 3 in our earlier report "<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fiat-chrysler-is-leaving-waymo-to-join-bmw-intel-autonomous-platform-negative-positive-to" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12899">Fiat Chrysler Is Leaving Waymo to Join BMW-Intel Autonomous Platform; Negative/Positive To?</a> " dated 17 August 2017) are driving a big demand on PCI Express lanes or PCI Express switch if using …

Summary of finding the beneficiariesAfter our recent discussions with two cloud data center experts, we conclude a rising requirement on faster and more NVME (Non-Volatile Memory Express) SSD flash storages, networking I/O cards, and AI used GPU/FPGA/TPU cards (please see Table 3 in our earlier report "Fiat Chrysler Is Leaving Waymo to Join BMW-Intel Autonomous Platform; Negative/Positive To? " dated 17 August 2017) are driving a big demand on PCI Express lanes or PCI Express switch if using …

Andrew on Tech: Finding the Four Beneficiaries from Rising PCI Express Lanes for Data Center

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

We updated our price target and forecasts for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1">Tencent (700 HK)</a> recently ahead of the 2Q result. Our price target moved from HK$260 to HK$371. The increase was due in part to the forecast changes (around $30 of the increase) but the major driver was a reduction in the discount rate we use for our DCF valuation (to 10% from 12%). To some extent we are falling into line with the share price (now HK$327), but our view on Tencent and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/787" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1">Alibaba (BABA US)</a> is evolving and we think they can justify a lower…

We updated our price target and forecasts for Tencent (700 HK) recently ahead of the 2Q result. Our price target moved from HK$260 to HK$371. The increase was due in part to the forecast changes (around $30 of the increase) but the major driver was a reduction in the discount rate we use for our DCF valuation (to 10% from 12%). To some extent we are falling into line with the share price (now HK$327), but our view on Tencent and Alibaba (BABA US) is evolving and we think they can justify a lower…

Tencent Continues to Surge past Expectations. Its Earnings Flexibility Makes It a Core Holding.

China

Baidu, Inc. operates an Internet search engine. The Company offers algorithmic search, enterprise search, news, MP3, and image searches, voice assistance, online storage, and navigation services. Baidu serves clients globally.

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Baidu (BIDU US)

Sizing up Baidu (And Alibaba), Part 1 of 2

In this Part 1 of a two-part series, I size up Baidu by market cap and market share, and get dragged into sizing up Alibaba as well. Baidu's market...

Ryan Soh 苏祥发

Semiconductors in the Age of AI

AI is the next big computing wave. After transitioning from mainframes to PCs to servers to Cloud-based data centres, computing is about to make...

CM Research

Advertising Industry Gets Disrupted, as Central Bankers Fly Blind…

We’ve seen a number of advertising sector profit warnings from Dentsu to WPP amid signs that key clients across the FMCG sector are questioning...

Sean Maher

Andrew on Tech: Finding the Four Beneficiaries from Rising PCI Express Lanes for Data Center

Summary of finding the beneficiariesAfter our recent discussions with two cloud data center experts, we conclude a rising requirement on faster and...

Andrew Lu

Tencent Continues to Surge past Expectations. Its Earnings Flexibility Makes It a Core Holding.

We updated our price target and forecasts for Tencent (700 HK) recently ahead of the 2Q result. Our price target moved from HK$260 to HK$371. The...

New Street Research

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