Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18</li>
<li>Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. </li>
<li>So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18
Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. 
So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

<ul>
<li>Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.</li>
<li>A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology</li>
</ul>


Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.
A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.
Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology


MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In Econote No. 110 ( Nov.Dec 2022) we broached the topic of investing in the Defence sectors of various West and Asian economies.</li>
<li>The reasons for this were very simple: First, the war in the Ukraine resulted to a sharp rise in defence spending in western countries and, second, this rise would not cease with the end of the war but presented a pivot to higher defence spending, not only in western countries, but also in areas such as Asia.</li>
<li>Hence the outlook for Defence stocks was, and is very bright, as witnessed by their persistent outperformance of the S&amp;P 500 and still reasonable valuations.</li>
</ul>


In Econote No. 110 ( Nov.Dec 2022) we broached the topic of investing in the Defence sectors of various West and Asian economies.
The reasons for this were very simple: First, the war in the Ukraine resulted to a sharp rise in defence spending in western countries and, second, this rise would not cease with the end of the war but presented a pivot to higher defence spending, not only in western countries, but also in areas such as Asia.
Hence the outlook for Defence stocks was, and is very bright, as witnessed by their persistent outperformance of the S&amp;P 500 and still reasonable valuations.


Ecognosis Advisory Ltd - ECONOTE No. 111 Investing in the Defence Sector

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Ultra Electronics Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The £2.55 billion takeover of Ultra by Advent looks set to be waved on by the UK government after the Business Secretary said he was minded to accept the deal.</li>
<li>Cobham was itself taken over and broken up by Advent over the course of 2019 and 2020, amidst some controversy. As in that case, Advent will bag its prey. </li>
<li>The 3500p offer price represents 15.4x EV/Fwd EBITDA (same as at the time of deal announcement). <strong>Gross spread</strong> is <strong>1.49%</strong>, estimated annual return is 8.8% (assuming settlement by 30 August).</li>
</ul>


The £2.55 billion takeover of Ultra by Advent looks set to be waved on by the UK government after the Business Secretary said he was minded to accept the deal.
Cobham was itself taken over and broken up by Advent over the course of 2019 and 2020, amidst some controversy. As in that case, Advent will bag its prey. 
The 3500p offer price represents 15.4x EV/Fwd EBITDA (same as at the time of deal announcement). Gross spread is 1.49%, estimated annual return is 8.8% (assuming settlement by 30 August).


Cobham/​​Ultra Electronics: UK Government Approval

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Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

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United Kingdom

BAE Systems plc develops, delivers, and supports advanced defense and aerospace systems.  The Group manufactures military aircraft, surface ships, submarines, radar, avionics, communications, electronics, and guided weapon systems.  BAE Systems services clients located throughout the world.

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BAE Systems PLC (BA/ LN)

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

MSCI ACWI, EURO $STOXX 50, $TOPIX Remain Bullish. $ACWI holding above short-term support at $102 (last week's breakout level), though we remain...

Vermilion Research

Ecognosis Advisory Ltd - ECONOTE No. 111 Investing in the Defence Sector

In Econote No. 110 ( Nov.Dec 2022) we broached the topic of investing in the Defence sectors of various West and Asian economies.

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Cobham/Ultra Electronics: UK Government Approval

The acquisition remains conditional upon the Secretary of State's formal approval, pending the outcome of the public consultation, but it can be...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #49

The verdict is out in the Apple (AAPL) vs Epic (private) case, with the court ruling that Apple cannot stop app developers from directing users to...

Granite Bay Capital

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Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

MSCI ACWI, EURO $STOXX 50, $TOPIX Remain Bullish. $ACWI holding above short-term support at $102 (last week's breakout level), though we remain...

Vermilion Research

Ecognosis Advisory Ltd - ECONOTE No. 111 Investing in the Defence Sector

In Econote No. 110 ( Nov.Dec 2022) we broached the topic of investing in the Defence sectors of various West and Asian economies.

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Cobham/​​Ultra Electronics: UK Government Approval

The acquisition remains conditional upon the Secretary of State's formal approval, pending the outcome of the public consultation, but it can be...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #49

The verdict is out in the Apple (AAPL) vs Epic (private) case, with the court ruling that Apple cannot stop app developers from directing users to...

Granite Bay Capital

Cobham/Ultra Electronics: UK Government Approval