Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The SET initially traded within a narrow range as investors awaited the outcome of the MPC meeting and remained hopeful about progress in US-China trade negotiations.</li><li>However, in the afternoon session, the index advanced sharply, supported by strong buying in DELTA, ADVANC, BH, energy, and banking stocks, reinforcing a continued upward trend.</li><li>Foreign investors also returned as net buyers.</li></ul>

The SET initially traded within a narrow range as investors awaited the outcome of the MPC meeting and remained hopeful about progress in US-China trade negotiations.However, in the afternoon session, the index advanced sharply, supported by strong buying in DELTA, ADVANC, BH, energy, and banking stocks, reinforcing a continued upward trend.Foreign investors also returned as net buyers.

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in June 2025.</li>
<li>Currently, we expect four ADDs and four DELs. There are roughly two more months left in the reference period.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in June 2025.
Currently, we expect four ADDs and four DELs. There are roughly two more months left in the reference period.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: Four Changes Likely; Capping to Be Introduced

<ul><li>There are ongoing risks surrounding the policy-level target to lower electricity prices, aligning with our view that the Ft rate remains on a downward trend (Ft is still within our forecast range, and we maintain our 2025E earnings estimates for SPP power producers).</li><li>Meanwhile, we believe that a revision of electricity prices through contract amendments (adder- FiT, AP-CP rate) is unlikely and would hurt power operators’ confidence, potentially undermining Thailand’s power security and the targeted increase in green power.</li><li>On the other hand, measures to adjust the pool gas portfolio and reduce “fat” appear more feasible and are expected to help lower the electricity tariff. </li></ul>

There are ongoing risks surrounding the policy-level target to lower electricity prices, aligning with our view that the Ft rate remains on a downward trend (Ft is still within our forecast range, and we maintain our 2025E earnings estimates for SPP power producers).Meanwhile, we believe that a revision of electricity prices through contract amendments (adder- FiT, AP-CP rate) is unlikely and would hurt power operators’ confidence, potentially undermining Thailand’s power security and the targeted increase in green power.On the other hand, measures to adjust the pool gas portfolio and reduce “fat” appear more feasible and are expected to help lower the electricity tariff. 

Industry Update: Energy (Power) APRIL 2, 2025

<ul><li>The ERC's scenario (3), which maintains electricity tariffs and Ft charges for the May-August period, appears to be a positive momentum factor for SPP operators (providing positive sentiment for stock prices yesterday).</li><li>However, it contradicts the government's target policy of reducing electricity costs (awaiting Cabinet approval on electricity tariffs).</li><li>We maintain our view that Ft charges are on a downward trend (aligning with SPP operators transitioning their power purchase agreements with industrial users to gas-linked contracts). </li></ul>

The ERC's scenario (3), which maintains electricity tariffs and Ft charges for the May-August period, appears to be a positive momentum factor for SPP operators (providing positive sentiment for stock prices yesterday).However, it contradicts the government's target policy of reducing electricity costs (awaiting Cabinet approval on electricity tariffs).We maintain our view that Ft charges are on a downward trend (aligning with SPP operators transitioning their power purchase agreements with industrial users to gas-linked contracts). 

Industry Update: Energy (Power) - MARCH 12, 2025

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> later this month following the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>Then there could be 3 or 4 more changes to the index at the June rebalance. The review period has just commenced so price moves will move the list around.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy around 1.85% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> while buying in the other stocks will be between 1-1.2% of float.</li>
</ul>



VGI PCL (VGI TB) could be added to the SET50 INDEX later this month following the Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB) / Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) merger.
Then there could be 3 or 4 more changes to the index at the June rebalance. The review period has just commenced so price moves will move the list around.
Passive trackers will need to buy around 1.85% of float in VGI PCL (VGI TB) while buying in the other stocks will be between 1-1.2% of float.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: VGI Could Be an Ad Hoc Add; Then 3/4 More in June

Thailand

B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited operates as a renewable energy company. The Company focuses on the development, financing, construction, and operation of green field power plants. B.Grimm Power also renders electricity distribution, operations, and maintenance services. B.Grimm Power serves clients in Asia.

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B Grimm Power (BGRIM TB)

Technical Analysis - APRIL 30, 2025

The SET initially traded within a narrow range as investors awaited the outcome of the MPC meeting and remained hopeful about progress in US-China...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: Four Changes Likely; Capping to Be Introduced

There could be 4x ADV to buy in Thanachart (TCAP TB) and we see this as a high-conviction ADD. Some of the other ADDs/DELs are closer to the border...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Industry Update: Energy (Power) APRIL 2, 2025

There are ongoing risks surrounding the policy-level target to lower electricity prices, aligning with our view that the Ft rate remains on a...

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update: Energy (Power) - MARCH 12, 2025

Tariff and Ft charge for May-August generating short-term positive sentiment for SPP players; risks related to government reducing electricity...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: VGI Could Be an Ad Hoc Add; Then 3/4 More in June

VGI could be added to the index later this month following the GULF/INTUCH merger. Then there could be 3/4 more changes in June. The forecast adds...

Brian Freitas

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