Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

We view Azure Power as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale. We like the company's contractual revenue streams and stable EBITDA margin, which are supported by: [1] a stable amount of solar radiation; [2] fixed tariffs based on long-term PPAs (25 years); and [3] minimal operating costs, as solar panels have no moving parts. The business risk profile is highly robust, with the impact from COVID-19 limited. However, the credit profile is somewhat weighed down by the company's high leverage and some delayed payments from distribution companies that could be facing financial stress.  Our fundamental Credit Bias is “Stable”, due to the stable and predictable revenues and EBITDA.

  We view Azure Power as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale. We like the company's contractual revenue streams and stable EBITDA margin, which are supported by: [1] a stable amount of solar radiation; [2] fixed tariffs based on long-term PPAs (25 years); and [3] minimal operating costs, as solar panels have no moving parts. The business risk profile is highly robust, with the impact from COVID-19 limited. However, the credit profile is somewhat weighed down by the company's high leverage and some delayed payments from distribution companies that could be facing financial stress.    Our fundamental Credit Bias is “Stable”, due to the stable and predictable revenues and EBITDA. 

Azure Power - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Indonesian real estate sector, including the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, regulatory and accounting developments, and the macro outlook. We also comment broadly on the H1/20 results of the Indonesian real estate players under our coverage. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Indonesian real estate sector, including the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, regulatory and accounting developments, and the macro outlook. We also comment broadly on the H1/20 results of the Indonesian real estate players under our coverage.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Indonesian Property Update (2020) - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of August includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of August includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - August 2020 - Lucror Analytics

Azure Power’s Q1/20-21 results were better than expected. Revenue beat consensus expectations slightly, while profitability was much better. That said, the payment delays are worsening and are affecting cash flows. That said, leverage and coverage ratios improved on the back of better earnings, albeit coverage ratios are still inadequate. Liquidity is adequate, with a large cash balance owing to a large share issuance to CPDQ in Q4/19-20 and large undrawn committed project debt.

  Azure Power’s Q1/20-21 results were better than expected. Revenue beat consensus expectations slightly, while profitability was much better. That said, the payment delays are worsening and are affecting cash flows. That said, leverage and coverage ratios improved on the back of better earnings, albeit coverage ratios are still inadequate. Liquidity is adequate, with a large cash balance owing to a large share issuance to CPDQ in Q4/19-20 and large undrawn committed project debt. 

Azure Power - Earnings Flash - Q1 FY 2020-21 Results - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we discuss LARA and Credit Bias developments for companies under our coverage over the past few years, including related trends for and between Asia, LatAm and Europe. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we discuss LARA and Credit Bias developments for companies under our coverage over the past few years, including related trends for and between Asia, LatAm and Europe.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - LARA And Credit Bias Study (2020 Update) - Lucror Analytics

India

Azure Power Global Limited operates as an independent solar power producer. The Company designs, constructs, maintains, and operates solar energy projects. Azure Power Global serves customers worldwide.

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Azure Power Global Ltd (AZRE US)

Azure Power - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

We view Azure Power as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale. We like the company's contractual revenue streams and stable EBITDA margin, which are...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Indonesian Property Update (2020) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Indonesian real estate sector, including the impact of the ongoing COVID-19...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - August 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of August includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas....

Lucror Analytics

Azure Power - Earnings Flash - Q1 FY 2020-21 Results - Lucror Analytics

Azure Power’s Q1/20-21 results were better than expected. Revenue beat consensus expectations slightly, while profitability was much better. That...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - LARA And Credit Bias Study (2020 Update) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we discuss LARA and Credit Bias developments for companies under our coverage over the past few years,...

Lucror Analytics

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