Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The global banking system is constructed around the accrual of interest. Credit cards, loans, and other financial products rely on interest rates and lending as one of their central features. In the Islamic world, however, where the very concept of interest is forbidden under Sharia – Islamic law – consumers looking to reconcile their banking needs with their faith are increasingly turning toward Islamic banking systems.

The global banking system is constructed around the accrual of interest. Credit cards, loans, and other financial products rely on interest rates and lending as one of their central features. In the Islamic world, however, where the very concept of interest is forbidden under Sharia – Islamic law – consumers looking to reconcile their banking needs with their faith are increasingly turning toward Islamic banking systems.

Consumer Finance in an Interest-Free World – An Overview of Islamic Banking

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

Over the past five years or so, since the RMB moved into over-valuation territory, there has been a consistent and inverse relationship between the RMB and US bond yields. RMB strength has been associated with rising US bond yields while RMB weakness has been associated with falling bond yields. The rationale should be apparent but as RMB weakness is associated with the potential for Chinese exporters to lower their USD prices (and incidentally reduce Asian corporate earnings outside of China)…

 Over the past five years or so, since the RMB moved into over-valuation territory, there has been a consistent and inverse relationship between the RMB and US bond yields. RMB strength has been associated with rising US bond yields while RMB weakness has been associated with falling bond yields. The rationale should be apparent but as RMB weakness is associated with the potential for Chinese exporters to lower their USD prices (and incidentally reduce Asian corporate earnings outside of China)…

Money Matters: US Bond Yields & USD/RMB - A Paradigm Shift?

Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Most investors probably agree that it would be foolhardy to ignore China's strategic policy-driven investment, behind which sits a wealth of resources.  Yet surprising US election results and worries about mounting debt among domestic Chinese corporations and local governments have diverted focus away from one of the largest drivers of Chinese investment.  To kick off our analysis of China's "One Belt One Road" initiative, we outline briefly in qualitative terms why the "One Belt One Road" initiative meets many Chinese strategic policy criteria and is thus likely to remain a complementary external pillar to China's ongoing domestic policy agenda.In subsequent pieces, we will focus on financial flows into OBOR, and identify areas wherein investors might seek exposure to the benefits of rising OBOR investment.

Most investors probably agree that it would be foolhardy to ignore China's strategic policy-driven investment, behind which sits a wealth of resources.  Yet surprising US election results and worries about mounting debt among domestic Chinese corporations and local governments have diverted focus away from one of the largest drivers of Chinese investment.  To kick off our analysis of China's "One Belt One Road" initiative, we outline briefly in qualitative terms why the "One Belt One Road" initiative meets many Chinese strategic policy criteria and is thus likely to remain a complementary external pillar to China's ongoing domestic policy agenda.In subsequent pieces, we will focus on financial flows into OBOR, and identify areas wherein investors might seek exposure to the benefits of rising OBOR investment.

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

One gets the feeling all sorts of intriguing news is due to pop up in the next week into US elections, with today’s notes of interest being Egypt’s devaluation and the Brexit court commentary (we are point 7 in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-path-to-no-brexit" target="_blank">my proposed timeline</a>). I would say there is a good chance of Nigeria following suit in devaluation next week, much needed as oil prices roll over as production outages subside (still bullish for next year, but it looks ugly here unless something changes sharpish).The Egyptian devaluation was not unexpected, but the market was probably in the 11/$ range and so they have surprised to the upside. This will put significant social pressure on society and we could potentially see unrest as Sisi’s support continues to diminish.Lower oil prices have allowed Egypt to kick this can further down the road than I expected, but were a doubled edged sword as it also reduced the ability of Egypt’s Gulf allies to support it. One notably recent development is the sharp increase in trade with China and the $2.6bn currency swap line opened up ahead of this devaluation: Egypt has started to spread its alliances wider than before, which is very positive, but has caused some frictions with existing relationships.From a market perspective this is very positive as the support already lined up should stabilise the currency around current levels for the next year or so, offering significant carry and assets at a discount to fair value.

One gets the feeling all sorts of intriguing news is due to pop up in the next week into US elections, with today’s notes of interest being Egypt’s devaluation and the Brexit court commentary (we are point 7 in my proposed timeline). I would say there is a good chance of Nigeria following suit in devaluation next week, much needed as oil prices roll over as production outages subside (still bullish for next year, but it looks ugly here unless something changes sharpish).The Egyptian devaluation was not unexpected, but the market was probably in the 11/$ range and so they have surprised to the upside. This will put significant social pressure on society and we could potentially see unrest as Sisi’s support continues to diminish.Lower oil prices have allowed Egypt to kick this can further down the road than I expected, but were a doubled edged sword as it also reduced the ability of Egypt’s Gulf allies to support it. One notably recent development is the sharp increase in trade with China and the $2.6bn currency swap line opened up ahead of this devaluation: Egypt has started to spread its alliances wider than before, which is very positive, but has caused some frictions with existing relationships.From a market perspective this is very positive as the support already lined up should stabilise the currency around current levels for the next year or so, offering significant carry and assets at a discount to fair value.

Egypt Devalues - Now the Hard Work Starts

Deciphering real estate markets globally., Rems Advisors

TAN Kok Keong

Deciphering real estate markets globally.

Rems Advisors

A key issue facing many Government across the globe is how to keep home affordable while maintaining an environment attractive for foreign investments.  This issue runs deep whether you are in developed countries like United Kingdom, Australia, Singapore or emerging markets like Myanmar, Cambodia, Vietnam, etc.The huge disparity in prices of luxury homes vs what middle to lower income groups can afford has been largely caused by the relative strong purchasing powers of foreign participants in…

A key issue facing many Government across the globe is how to keep home affordable while maintaining an environment attractive for foreign investments.  This issue runs deep whether you are in developed countries like United Kingdom, Australia, Singapore or emerging markets like Myanmar, Cambodia, Vietnam, etc.The huge disparity in prices of luxury homes vs what middle to lower income groups can afford has been largely caused by the relative strong purchasing powers of foreign participants in…

Philippines

Metro Pacific Investments Corporation is an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides water, sanitation and sewerage services, and also operates in real estate, infrastructure projects, toll roads, electricity distribution, hospital operations and light rail.

STI Education Systems Holdings, Inc. provides a range of educational services in the Philippines. The company operates college campuses that offer associate/baccalaureate degree and technical/vocational programs in information and communications technology, arts and sciences, business and management, education, engineering, hospitality and tourism management, and healthcare. Its education centers also provide technical/vocational diploma, certificate, and short-term courses for computer programming, computer technology, software applications, office administration, and others. In addition, the company iACADEMY, which specializes in course offerings in animation and multimedia, as well as graphic arts; De Los Santos STI College, a health science and nursing school; and West Negros University that focuses on the widening of the course offerings in the tertiary level, as well as serves as an entry to the basic education and graduate school level. The company was founded in 1928 and is headquartered in Rizal, the Philippines.

Vantage Equities, Inc. operates as an investment and financial holding company in the Philippines. The company operates through Investment Holdings, Remittance Services, Internet Online-Related Products and Services, and Mutual Fund Management segments. The Investment Holdings segment deals in the acquisition and sale of financial instruments. The Remittance Services segment provides infrastructure and services as the direct agent for money transfer of overseas Filipino workers; facilitates the fulfillment of e-commerce transactions; and serves as a payment platform for business to business or business to customer initiatives. The Internet Online-Related Products and Services segment offers Internet online-related products relating to database search engine, such as, conceptualizing, designing, illustrating, processing, and editing Websites; engages in pre-production and post-production work on Websites in the Internet; and sells and markets products in the form of advertising of finished products in the domestic or export markets. The Mutual Fund Management segment deals in the management of mutual funds. The company was formerly known as iVantage Corporation and changed its name to Vantage Equities, Inc. in April 2008. Vantage Equities, Inc. was incorporated in 1992 and is based in Pasig City, the Philippines.

Anglo Philippine Holdings Corporation, an investments holding firm, focuses on natural resources, property development, and infrastructure activities in the Philippines. The company explores, develops, and produces mineral and aggregates resources, such as petroleum, as well as nickel laterite, copper, and gold. The company was formerly known as Anglo Philippine Oil Corporation and changed its name to Anglo Philippine Holdings Corporation in 1996. Anglo Philippine Holdings Corporation was incorporated in 1958 and is based in Mandaluyong, the Philippines. Anglo Philippine Holdings Corporation is a subsidiary of Alakor Corporation.

Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company offers commercial and investment banking services. The Bank's business activities include borrowing and lending, trade finance, remittances, treasury, investment banking and savings.

COL Financial Group, Inc. provides online stock trading services.

Philippine Stock Exchange Inc. is a self-regulatory organization that provides a fair, efficient, transparent and orderly market for the buying and selling of securities.

Philtrust Bank provides various commercial banking products and services in the Philippines. The company offers checking accounts, savings accounts, time deposits, money market placements, business loans, transfer of funds and collections, remittances, securities investments, and safety deposit boxes. It also provides commercial letters of credit, collections and remittances, foreign exchange services, traveler�s checks, and foreign currency deposit unit transactions. In addition, the company offers trust services, such as trust placement, investment management, estate administration/trustee of bond issues, savings and pension plan administration, and insurance trust services, as well as acts as escrow agent, and stock registrar and transfer agent. It operates a network of approximately 57 branches and 57 automated teller machines. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Manila, the Philippines.

UnionBank of the Philippines, together with its subsidiaries, provides various commercial banking products and services in the Philippines. It operates through Consumer Banking, Corporate and Commercial Banking, and Treasury segments. The company offers various personal banking products and services, such as savings and checking accounts, and time deposits; auto loans; debit and credit cards; trust and investment products; remittance products and services; and mobile banking services, as well as foreclosed properties and vehicles. It also provides corporate and small and medium scale enterprise products and services that consist of cash management services; various small business products and services; and treasury products. In addition, the company offers corporate and commercial banking loans; salary and mortgage loans; consumer finance products; pre-need insurance products and services; funds transfer facilities; retail and trust banking products and services; and capital markets products, as well as handles transactions in the financial markets covering foreign exchange and fixed income trading, and investments and derivatives products. Further, it provides insurance, securities, and foreign currency brokerage services; data processing services; venture capital products; financial products marketing services; and real estate administration services, as well as acts as a thrift banker. The company serves retail, middle market, corporate, and institutional customers, as well as small and medium enterprises and government institutions. As of December 31, 2014, it had 253 branches; and 243 on-site and 39 off-site automated teller machines. The company was formerly known as Union Savings and Mortgage Bank and changed its name to UnionBank of the Philippines in January 1982. UnionBank of the Philippines was founded in 1968 and is based in Pasig City, the Philippines.

China Banking Corporation is a commercial bank. The Bank provides products and services such as deposit products, loans and trade finance, treasury products, trust products, corporate finance and other investment banking services.

L&T Finance Holdings Limited is a financial holding company. The Company offers a diverse range of financial products and services across the corporate, retail, and infrastructure finance sectors, as well as fund products and investment services.

Voya Financial, Inc. is a retirement, investment and insurance company. The Company offers asset accumulation, asset protection and asset distribution products and services to individual and institutional customers in the United States.

Ackermans & van Haaren NV is an industrial holding company. The Company's holdings are in the contracting-dredging environmental, financial, and staffing services, as well as private equity investing.

Eurazeo S.A. is an investment company that invests in French mid to large-sized companies.  The Company is a long-term investor and works alongside management to provide company transformation support.  Eurazeo's investments include buiness support services,transportation services, real estate & leisure, and financial services sectors.

Onex Corporation has employed an active approach to building industry-leading businesses. The Company manages its own capital and that of its global investors. Onex makes investments in private equity and credit.

Kingdom Holding Company is a diversified investment company based in Saudi Arabia. The Company's interests include banking, real estate, telecommunications, broadcasting and media, entertainment, hospitality, computers and electronics, agriculture, restaurants, upscale fashion, retailing, supermarkets, tourism, travel, and automotive manufacturing.

Aditya Birla Capital Limited (ABCL) provides financial services. The Company offers life and health insurance, private equity, corporate lending, structured finance, asset and wealth management, currency and commodity brokerage, online personal finance management, housing finance, pension funds, and other financial services. ABCL serves customers in India.

Haci Omer Sabanci Holding A.S., also known as Sabanci Holding, is a multibusiness enterprise operating in Turkey. The Company's main operation areas are financial services, energy (electricity generation and distribution), cement, retail and industrial sectors.

Chailease Holding Co Ltd provides financing services such as leasing, installment sale, import/export factoring and direct financing.

PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. provides mortgage lending services. The Company offers credit risk transfers, loan servicing and production, investment management, and other related financial services. PennyMac Financial Services serves customers in the United States.

Ayala Corporation, through its subsidiaries, develops real estate properties. The Company also provides financial services, insurance, and information technology and telecommunications services. In addition, Ayala manufactures and sells passenger cars as well as having operations in the food and agriculture industries.

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Ayala Corporation (AC PM)

Consumer Finance in an Interest-Free World – An Overview of Islamic Banking

The global banking system is constructed around the accrual of interest. Credit cards, loans, and other financial products rely on interest rates...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Money Matters: US Bond Yields & USD/RMB - A Paradigm Shift?

Over the past five years or so, since the RMB moved into over-valuation territory, there has been a consistent and inverse relationship between...

Stewart Paterson

Silk Roads Part I: Background

Most investors probably agree that it would be foolhardy to ignore China's strategic policy-driven investment, behind which sits a wealth of...

Naomi Fink

Egypt Devalues - Now the Hard Work Starts

One gets the feeling all sorts of intriguing news is due to pop up in the next week into US elections, with today’s notes of interest being Egypt’s...

Emad Mostaque

Helping People Own a Home

A key issue facing many Government across the globe is how to keep home affordable while maintaining an environment attractive for foreign...

TAN Kok Keong

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