Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The September 2022 Rebalance results for the NIFTY 50, 100, and 500 Indices were announced after the close on 1st September 2022.</li>
<li>There will be one ADD/DEL for the NIFTY 50 Index and 6 ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 100 Index, mostly in line with our expectations.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows and potential trading ideas.</li>
</ul>


The September 2022 Rebalance results for the NIFTY 50, 100, and 500 Indices were announced after the close on 1st September 2022.
There will be one ADD/DEL for the NIFTY 50 Index and 6 ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 100 Index, mostly in line with our expectations.
In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows and potential trading ideas.


NIFTY Sep 2022 Rebal: Adani Enterprises and Adani Total Gas Are Top Positives

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>India’s long-awaited Capex cycle finally seems to be gathering momentum, after a hiatus of 10 years</li><li>While there were false starts in the last decade, we believe the recent post-COVID pick-up is looking sustainable and drivers are in place for multi-year growth</li><li>In this report, we have done a detailed bottom-up analysis of (a) 1,700+ government projects that are under implementation (explaining &gt;60% of total government Capex of FY22) and (b) Capex plans of top 400+ private sector companies to better understand the drivers and likely shape of the Capex demand curve</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India’s long-awaited Capex cycle finally seems to be gathering momentum, after a hiatus of 10 yearsWhile there were false starts in the last decade, we believe the recent post-COVID pick-up is looking sustainable and drivers are in place for multi-year growthIn this report, we have done a detailed bottom-up analysis of (a) 1,700+ government projects that are under implementation (explaining &gt;60% of total government Capex of FY22) and (b) Capex plans of top 400+ private sector companies to better understand the drivers and likely shape of the Capex demand curveContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India Equity Strategy - Capex: On a Sustainable Upswing

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our profitability and credit quality screens, in terms of credit quality metrics to end-June 2022, continued in a constructive vein, although pre-provision profitability trends were mixed</li>
<li>The key positive trend to end-June was the declining cost of risk, boosting post-provision profitability; nonetheless, the prospect of worsening delinquency could drive a reversal in NPA provision charges</li>
<li>We believe HDFC Bank can best face credit quality deterioration; optically cheap State Bank of India is exposed to higher provisioning needs, as is ICICI Bank</li>
</ul>


Our profitability and credit quality screens, in terms of credit quality metrics to end-June 2022, continued in a constructive vein, although pre-provision profitability trends were mixed
The key positive trend to end-June was the declining cost of risk, boosting post-provision profitability; nonetheless, the prospect of worsening delinquency could drive a reversal in NPA provision charges
We believe HDFC Bank can best face credit quality deterioration; optically cheap State Bank of India is exposed to higher provisioning needs, as is ICICI Bank


Indian Banks Screener: Credit Quality Turning?

<ul><li>Infosys: Infosys (INFO IN) delivered strong growth in Q1, offset by steeper impact on margins (yet relative outperformance vs peers)</li><li>INFO increased its revenue guidance for FY23E to 14-16% (vs 13-15% earlier) and EBITM guidance was maintained at 21-23%, with a tilt to the lower end</li><li>We expect INFO’s margin recovery ahead, supported by sub-contractor optimisation (~100bps lever) and utilisation increase on trainee productivity (~50bps lever)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Infosys: Infosys (INFO IN) delivered strong growth in Q1, offset by steeper impact on margins (yet relative outperformance vs peers)INFO increased its revenue guidance for FY23E to 14-16% (vs 13-15% earlier) and EBITM guidance was maintained at 21-23%, with a tilt to the lower endWe expect INFO’s margin recovery ahead, supported by sub-contractor optimisation (~100bps lever) and utilisation increase on trainee productivity (~50bps lever)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Infosys, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, Crompton Consumer

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

LG Energy Solution / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>There were no major IPO launches during the week. Thai Life will list early next week</li>
<li>There were no major placements apart from ANZ and a smallish one in Xtep. There are two major lock-up expiries coming up.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
There were no major IPO launches during the week. Thai Life will list early next week
There were no major placements apart from ANZ and a smallish one in Xtep. There are two major lock-up expiries coming up.


ECM Weekly (24th Jul 2022) - ANZ, Zomato, LG Energy, Xtep, SoCar, WCP, Thai Life, Beneunder, Ubox

India

Axis Bank Limited provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, investment management, merchant banking, treasury and NRI services, cash and credit management services, and ATM facilities.

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Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)

NIFTY Sep 2022 Rebal: Adani Enterprises and Adani Total Gas Are Top Positives

The NIFTY 50 index changes are the significant ones. NIFTY 50 ADD Adani Enterprises and NIFTY 50 DEL Shree Cement could see flows of approximately...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

India Equity Strategy - Capex: On a Sustainable Upswing

While there were false starts in the last decade, we believe the recent post-COVID pick-up is looking sustainable and drivers are in place for...

HDFC Securities

Indian Banks Screener: Credit Quality Turning?

Indian bank showed broadly positive results to 1QFY23; yet we believe that the credit quality cycle may soon turn; rising delinquency will hit SBI...

Victor Galliano

HSIE Results Daily: Infosys, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, Crompton Consumer

Infosys: Infosys (INFO IN) delivered strong growth in Q1, offset by steeper impact on margins (yet relative outperformance vs peers)

HDFC Securities

ECM Weekly (24th Jul 2022) - ANZ, Zomato, LG Energy, Xtep, SoCar, WCP, Thai Life, Beneunder, Ubox

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

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