Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There are few banking systems in the world or in Asia-Pacific that show such a steady but significant reduction in bad loans as in India. </li>
<li>Credit costs can remain subdued for sometime with better NPL levels and this can also lead the way to better loan volume, as loan officers take on more risk.</li>
<li>Banking penetration remains incredibly low in India compared with almost all countries in the region, and this means that there can be sustained robust growth.</li>
</ul>


There are few banking systems in the world or in Asia-Pacific that show such a steady but significant reduction in bad loans as in India. 
Credit costs can remain subdued for sometime with better NPL levels and this can also lead the way to better loan volume, as loan officers take on more risk.
Banking penetration remains incredibly low in India compared with almost all countries in the region, and this means that there can be sustained robust growth.


India Banks - Far Better Credit Metrics Seem Real, With Exceptional Long-Term Loan Growth Outlook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.</li>
<li>There are a lot of implementations this week, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.</li>
</ul>


There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.
There are a lot of implementations this week, with KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.
There were big inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> is looking to raise US$135m from selling its remaining stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a>.</li>
<li>Since receiving shares from Zomato’s acquisition of 91% of Blinkit’s outstanding shares, Softbank has been busy trimming its stake in Zomato. The stake sale now will be a cleanup one.</li>
<li>Representing just 1.2 days of Zomato’s three month ADV, the deal here would be easily digested by the firm.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) is looking to raise US$135m from selling its remaining stake in Zomato (ZOMATO IN).
Since receiving shares from Zomato’s acquisition of 91% of Blinkit’s outstanding shares, Softbank has been busy trimming its stake in Zomato. The stake sale now will be a cleanup one.
Representing just 1.2 days of Zomato’s three month ADV, the deal here would be easily digested by the firm.


Zomato Placement - SVF's Overhang Will Be Lifted Post-Deal, Momentum on the Stock Remains Strong

<ul>
<li>There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).</li>
<li>Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.</li>
</ul>


There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).
Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

Fedbank Financial Services / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fedbank-financial-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40010:1" rel="noopener">Fedbank Financial Services (0702066D IN)</a> raised around US$130m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>Fedbank Financial Services (Fedbank) is a retail-focused non-banking finance company (NBFC) promoted by The Federal Bank Limited.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuation. In this note, we talk about the demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Fedbank Financial Services (0702066D IN) raised around US$130m in its India IPO.
Fedbank Financial Services (Fedbank) is a retail-focused non-banking finance company (NBFC) promoted by The Federal Bank Limited.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuation. In this note, we talk about the demand and trading dynamics.


Fedbank Financial IPO Trading - Subscription Rates Hint at a Snoozy Debut

India

Axis Bank Limited provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, investment management, merchant banking, treasury and NRI services, cash and credit management services, and ATM facilities.

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Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)

India Banks - Far Better Credit Metrics Seem Real, With Exceptional Long-Term Loan Growth Outlook

India's banks are seeing consistent and strong reduction of NPLs, which appears to be real, not cosmetic. There is vast scope for more loan...

Daniel Tabbush

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Zomato Placement - SVF's Overhang Will Be Lifted Post-Deal, Momentum on the Stock Remains Strong

Softbank Group (9984 JP) is looking to raise US$135m from selling its remaining stake in Zomato (ZOMATO IN). The stake sale now will be a cleanup one.

Clarence Chu

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index resulting in 1-way turnover of 58.2% and in a 1-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m). Adds...

Brian Freitas

Fedbank Financial IPO Trading - Subscription Rates Hint at a Snoozy Debut

Fedbank Financial Services (0702066D IN) raised around US$130m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Clarence Chu

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