Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is tremendous growth in Australian insolvencies, which is not simple a base effect</li>
<li>Construction insolvencies are up 75% YoY through mid June, the worst of any sector</li>
<li>NAB shows +17x exposures risk-weighted at 75%, PD +84% in qualifying revolving retail</li>
</ul>


There is tremendous growth in Australian insolvencies, which is not simple a base effect
Construction insolvencies are up 75% YoY through mid June, the worst of any sector
NAB shows +17x exposures risk-weighted at 75%, PD +84% in qualifying revolving retail


Australia Banks - Construction Insolvencies +75%, A Look at NAB Risk Weights, PD

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 30th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Rea, ANZ, Xero, Westpac, Natl Aust Bank, Liontown.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 30th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Rea, ANZ, Xero, Westpac, Natl Aust Bank, Liontown.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 30th): Rea, ANZ, Xero, Westpac, NAB, Liontown

<ul>
<li>New RBA rate hike puts increased pressure on banks, furthering rift between banks</li>
<li>ACCC deadline to approve ANZ's takeover of Suncorp Bank is moved to 28 July 2023</li>
<li>Significant change in Australian banking metrics from July 2022 takeover proposal</li>
</ul>


New RBA rate hike puts increased pressure on banks, furthering rift between banks
ACCC deadline to approve ANZ's takeover of Suncorp Bank is moved to 28 July 2023
Significant change in Australian banking metrics from July 2022 takeover proposal


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>One of main criteria for ACCC to allow ANZ's takeover of Suncorp centers around competition, will it worsen as a result</li>
<li>There are 8 banks in Australia with over 100 branches, if the takeover is allowed, this puts the 127 Suncorp branches into the 668 branch stable of ANZ</li>
<li>There is plenty of expert and public testimony that such a merger would see less competition especially in SME and agribusiness loans, and possibly limit physical access to banking</li>
</ul>


One of main criteria for ACCC to allow ANZ's takeover of Suncorp centers around competition, will it worsen as a result
There are 8 banks in Australia with over 100 branches, if the takeover is allowed, this puts the 127 Suncorp branches into the 668 branch stable of ANZ
There is plenty of expert and public testimony that such a merger would see less competition especially in SME and agribusiness loans, and possibly limit physical access to banking


Suncorp - Decision on ANZ Takeover In Weeks, Competition Can Worsen If Allowed

<ul>
<li>News out this morning that HDFC Bank and HDFC merger became effective 1 July </li>
<li>This occurred after the Boards approved the merger scheme on 30 June</li>
<li>Funding cost benefits, operating cost synergies, product cross-sale: major benefits</li>
</ul>


News out this morning that HDFC Bank and HDFC merger became effective 1 July 
This occurred after the Boards approved the merger scheme on 30 June
Funding cost benefits, operating cost synergies, product cross-sale: major benefits


HDFC - Amalgamated, We List Its Own Key Synergies, Which Appear Tremendous

Australia

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers accounts checking, savings  deposits, money market, mortgage, and term loans services, as well as card facilities and Internet  banking services. Australia and New Zealand Banking Group serves customers in New Zealand and Australia.

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Australia & New Zealand Bankin (AN3 AU)

Australia Banks - Construction Insolvencies +75%, A Look at NAB Risk Weights, PD

Australia insolvencies are surging, especially in construction, manufacturing, hotels & restaurants. Risk is higher credit costs and bad loans for...

Daniel Tabbush

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 30th): Rea, ANZ, Xero, Westpac, NAB, Liontown

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Rea, ANZ, Xero, Westpac, Natl Aust Bank, Liontown.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ANZ's Suncorp Takeover - In Jeopardy

Suncorp statement of ACCC decision to come 28 July makes this insight relevant. The Suncorp market capitalization seems to be fully factoring in a...

Daniel Tabbush

Suncorp - Decision on ANZ Takeover In Weeks, Competition Can Worsen If Allowed

ACCC will decide on ANZ's takeover of Suncorp by 28 July and we remain concerned that at least the condition related to competition will not be met.

Daniel Tabbush

HDFC - Amalgamated, We List Its Own Key Synergies, Which Appear Tremendous

We provide a simple list here of the merger benefits as laid out by HDFC, now that merger is done, today. The initial Insight I want to Boomerang...

Daniel Tabbush

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