IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a> is the world's largest mobility technology platform by annual active users and by average daily transactions for the twelve months ended 31 March 2021, according to CIC. DiDi has endured a torrid time since its listing on 30 June to raise net proceeds of $4,331.6 million at $14.00 per ADS. </p><p>The shares are trading 40% below its IPO price as days after its listing, DiDi’s apps were taken down from app stores in China by the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC). DiDi ran afoul of CAC when it pressed ahead with its listing, despite CAC asking it to put the listing on hold while it conducted a cybersecurity review of its collection and use of personal information. Subsequently, the official Xinhua news agency on 10 October claimed that the CAC probe was aimed at “<em>effectively preventing potential national security risks relating to procurement, data processing and overseas listings.</em>”</p><p>DIDi has been ensnared by regulatory probes into its pricing mechanisms and the way it treats its drivers. DiDi also been subject to rumours in the press that the Chinese government is weighing asserting state control by taking a stake in the company. Press reports have also suggested that DiDi is planning to delist from the US which was later confirmed by DiDi to be false.</p><p>Since the regulatory clampdown, DiDi has not released its 2Q21 results or provided any financial guidance. However, due to the regulatory restrictions, DiDi is losing market share and pricing power to competitors in China. On 6 September, Cao Cao Mobility, a peer, raised RMB3.8 billion ($588 million) from Chinese state-owned funds to accelerate its expansion. DiDi’s average daily user count declined 30% to 10.9 million in August from 15.6 million in June, according to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aurora-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27264:1" rel="noopener">Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG US)</a>.</p><p>DiDi continues to polarise opinions with some investors suggesting that the stock can double from current levels while others are wary due to unpredictable regulatory risks. Due to the number of unknowns, we examine DiDi's outlook through scenarios analysis. A key difference between the bull and bear case is the timing for the reinstatement of DiDi’s apps on the app stores which will once again enable DiDi to grow market share and regain pricing power. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Our bull-case SoTP valuation points to a 22% upside while our bear-case SoTP valuation points to a -19% downside to the last close price of $8.56 per ADS. Consequently, the shares seem fairly valued and may appeal to investors with a higher risk appetite.  </p></div>

DiDi Global (DIDI US) is the world's largest mobility technology platform by annual active users and by average daily transactions for the twelve months ended 31 March 2021, according to CIC. DiDi has endured a torrid time since its listing on 30 June to raise net proceeds of $4,331.6 million at $14.00 per ADS. The shares are trading 40% below its IPO price as days after its listing, DiDi’s apps were taken down from app stores in China by the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC). DiDi ran afoul of CAC when it pressed ahead with its listing, despite CAC asking it to put the listing on hold while it conducted a cybersecurity review of its collection and use of personal information. Subsequently, the official Xinhua news agency on 10 October claimed that the CAC probe was aimed at “effectively preventing potential national security risks relating to procurement, data processing and overseas listings.”DIDi has been ensnared by regulatory probes into its pricing mechanisms and the way it treats its drivers. DiDi also been subject to rumours in the press that the Chinese government is weighing asserting state control by taking a stake in the company. Press reports have also suggested that DiDi is planning to delist from the US which was later confirmed by DiDi to be false.Since the regulatory clampdown, DiDi has not released its 2Q21 results or provided any financial guidance. However, due to the regulatory restrictions, DiDi is losing market share and pricing power to competitors in China. On 6 September, Cao Cao Mobility, a peer, raised RMB3.8 billion ($588 million) from Chinese state-owned funds to accelerate its expansion. DiDi’s average daily user count declined 30% to 10.9 million in August from 15.6 million in June, according to Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG US).DiDi continues to polarise opinions with some investors suggesting that the stock can double from current levels while others are wary due to unpredictable regulatory risks. Due to the number of unknowns, we examine DiDi's outlook through scenarios analysis. A key difference between the bull and bear case is the timing for the reinstatement of DiDi’s apps on the app stores which will once again enable DiDi to grow market share and regain pricing power. Our bull-case SoTP valuation points to a 22% upside while our bear-case SoTP valuation points to a -19% downside to the last close price of $8.56 per ADS. Consequently, the shares seem fairly valued and may appeal to investors with a higher risk appetite.  

Event-Driven

iClick Interactive Asia Group / Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iclick-interactive-asia-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27314:1" rel="noopener">iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK US)</a> is a leading enterprise and marketing cloud platform in China. It is a platinum provider to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> in social advertising and provides one-stop solutions in user acquisition and engagement.</p><p>On 18 September, iClick announced a second non-binding privatisation proposal from Infinity Equity Management. The bid of $7.50 in cash per ADS represents a premium of 32.7% to the undisturbed price of $5.65 (on 23 September prior to the first proposal from PAG and Oasis). </p><p>As a reminder, on 24 September, iClick announced a non-binding privatisation proposal from PAG and Oasis Management of $6.75 in cash per ADS. Infinity’s offer represents an 11.1% bump to the offer from PAG and Oasis.  </p><p>As iClick is incorporated in the Cayman Islands, for the privatisation to succeed, shareholders representing two-thirds of shares present and voting need to approve the deal. Infinity has not disclosed a shareholding. iClick’s three largest shareholders are Wing Hong Sammy Hsieh (co-founder and Chairman), Jian Tang (co-founder and CEO) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baozun-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24184:1" rel="noopener">Baozun Inc. (BZUN US)</a>. Mr Hsieh and Mr Tang together represent around 62% of voting interests. </p><p>Borrowing a page from PAG and Oasis’ playbook, Infinity’s letter to the board mentions an intention to acquire all the shares other than those “<em>other than management owned shares and those existing shareholders of the Company who elect to roll over</em>.” The wording suggests that Infinity is vying with PAG and Oasis to get the upper hand in discussions with the co-founders and Baozun. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/iclick-s-privatisation-bid-from-pag-and-oasis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:58109" rel="noopener">IClick’s Privatisation Bid from PAG and Oasis</a>, we stated that the PAG and Oasis offer is unattractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples. We also noted that the PAG and Oasis offer is designed to take advantage of the sell-off in Chinese tech names by enriching insiders at the expense of minorities.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>While we did not expect a competing bid, Infinity’s offer while providing a bump to PAG and Oasis' offer still leaves minorities short-changed. Nevertheless, the emergence of two bidders suggests that there is a decent chance of another bidding round. At the last close of $6.50 per ADS, the gross spread to the Infinity offer price is 15.4%.  </p></div>

iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK US) is a leading enterprise and marketing cloud platform in China. It is a platinum provider to Tencent (700 HK) in social advertising and provides one-stop solutions in user acquisition and engagement.On 18 September, iClick announced a second non-binding privatisation proposal from Infinity Equity Management. The bid of $7.50 in cash per ADS represents a premium of 32.7% to the undisturbed price of $5.65 (on 23 September prior to the first proposal from PAG and Oasis). As a reminder, on 24 September, iClick announced a non-binding privatisation proposal from PAG and Oasis Management of $6.75 in cash per ADS. Infinity’s offer represents an 11.1% bump to the offer from PAG and Oasis.  As iClick is incorporated in the Cayman Islands, for the privatisation to succeed, shareholders representing two-thirds of shares present and voting need to approve the deal. Infinity has not disclosed a shareholding. iClick’s three largest shareholders are Wing Hong Sammy Hsieh (co-founder and Chairman), Jian Tang (co-founder and CEO) and Baozun Inc. (BZUN US). Mr Hsieh and Mr Tang together represent around 62% of voting interests. Borrowing a page from PAG and Oasis’ playbook, Infinity’s letter to the board mentions an intention to acquire all the shares other than those “other than management owned shares and those existing shareholders of the Company who elect to roll over.” The wording suggests that Infinity is vying with PAG and Oasis to get the upper hand in discussions with the co-founders and Baozun. In IClick’s Privatisation Bid from PAG and Oasis, we stated that the PAG and Oasis offer is unattractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples. We also noted that the PAG and Oasis offer is designed to take advantage of the sell-off in Chinese tech names by enriching insiders at the expense of minorities.While we did not expect a competing bid, Infinity’s offer while providing a bump to PAG and Oasis' offer still leaves minorities short-changed. Nevertheless, the emergence of two bidders suggests that there is a decent chance of another bidding round. At the last close of $6.50 per ADS, the gross spread to the Infinity offer price is 15.4%.  

IClick’s Improved Privatisation Bid from a Second Suitor

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iclick-interactive-asia-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27314:1" rel="noopener">iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK US)</a> is a leading enterprise and marketing cloud platform in China. It is a platinum provider to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> in social advertising and provides one-stop solutions in user acquisition and engagement. iClick was listed on Nasdaq in December 2017 at $8.00 per ADS and raised net proceeds of $23.3 million.  </p><p>On 24 September, iClick announced a non-binding privatisation proposal from PAG and Oasis Management. The bid of $6.75 in cash per ADS represents a premium of 19.5% to the undisturbed price (on 23 September). </p><p>As iClick is incorporated in the Cayman Islands, for the privatisation to succeed, shareholders representing two-thirds of shares present and voting need to approve the deal. PAG and Oasis have not disclosed a shareholding. iClick’s three largest shareholders are Wing Hong Sammy Hsieh (co-founder and Chairman), Jian Tang (co-founder and CEO) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baozun-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24184:1" rel="noopener">Baozun Inc. (BZUN US)</a>. Mr Hsieh and Mr Tang together represent around 62% of voting interests. </p><p>PAG and Oasis’ letter to the board mentions an intention to acquire all the shares other than those “<em>shares held by the members of management and other strategic shareholders of the Company that may be rolled over in connection with the proposed transaction.</em>” The wording suggests that PAG and Oasis are in advanced stages of discussions with the co-founders and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baozun" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29712:1" rel="noopener">Baozun (9991 HK)</a>. </p><p>iClick’s shares reached an all-time high of $18.30 per ADS on 18 February 2021 on the back of the announcement that Baozun acquired 4% of outstanding shares and 10% voting interest at $13.262 per ADS. In part due to China’s regulatory clampdown on tech names, the shares have since headed downwards to reach a YTD low of $4.16 per ADS on 20 August. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The offer is unattractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples, in our view. The offer is designed to take advantage of the sell-off in Chinese tech names by enriching insiders at the expense of minorities. The timing of the offer announcement points to PAG and Oasis’ confidence in gaining the co-founders and/or Bazoun’s support as rollover shareholders. We think that there is a decent chance that privatisation succeeds. At the last close of $5.91 per ADS, the gross spread to the offer price is 14.2%.  </p></div>

iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK US) is a leading enterprise and marketing cloud platform in China. It is a platinum provider to Tencent (700 HK) in social advertising and provides one-stop solutions in user acquisition and engagement. iClick was listed on Nasdaq in December 2017 at $8.00 per ADS and raised net proceeds of $23.3 million.  On 24 September, iClick announced a non-binding privatisation proposal from PAG and Oasis Management. The bid of $6.75 in cash per ADS represents a premium of 19.5% to the undisturbed price (on 23 September). As iClick is incorporated in the Cayman Islands, for the privatisation to succeed, shareholders representing two-thirds of shares present and voting need to approve the deal. PAG and Oasis have not disclosed a shareholding. iClick’s three largest shareholders are Wing Hong Sammy Hsieh (co-founder and Chairman), Jian Tang (co-founder and CEO) and Baozun Inc. (BZUN US). Mr Hsieh and Mr Tang together represent around 62% of voting interests. PAG and Oasis’ letter to the board mentions an intention to acquire all the shares other than those “shares held by the members of management and other strategic shareholders of the Company that may be rolled over in connection with the proposed transaction.” The wording suggests that PAG and Oasis are in advanced stages of discussions with the co-founders and Baozun (9991 HK). iClick’s shares reached an all-time high of $18.30 per ADS on 18 February 2021 on the back of the announcement that Baozun acquired 4% of outstanding shares and 10% voting interest at $13.262 per ADS. In part due to China’s regulatory clampdown on tech names, the shares have since headed downwards to reach a YTD low of $4.16 per ADS on 20 August. The offer is unattractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples, in our view. The offer is designed to take advantage of the sell-off in Chinese tech names by enriching insiders at the expense of minorities. The timing of the offer announcement points to PAG and Oasis’ confidence in gaining the co-founders and/or Bazoun’s support as rollover shareholders. We think that there is a decent chance that privatisation succeeds. At the last close of $5.91 per ADS, the gross spread to the offer price is 14.2%.  

IClick’s Privatisation Bid from PAG and Oasis

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netjoy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29729:1" rel="noopener">Netjoy (2131 HK)</a> is an ad tech company which connects advertising customers and media partners. It is the third-largest online marketing solutions provider in China as measured by gross billing generated from short video advertisements in 2019, with a market share of 3.4%, according to iResearch. At the proposed IPO price range of HK$5.56-7.08 per share, Netjoy will have a market cap of HK$4,448-5,664 million ($574-731 million). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$1,166.6 million ($151 million). </p></div><div><p>Six cornerstone investors will subscribe for $39 million of the offer shares (23.91% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the price range). The cornerstone investors are Affin Hwang Asset Management, HSBC Global Asset Management, Pacific Asset Management, Seedlings Fund, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> and SenseTime.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/netjoy-ipo-initiation-joy-divisions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46112" rel="noopener">Netjoy IPO Initiation: Joy Divisions</a>, we stated that for investors seeking Chinese adtech exposure, we think Netjoy’s fundamentals are attractive. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range.</p></div></div></div>

Netjoy (2131 HK) is an ad tech company which connects advertising customers and media partners. It is the third-largest online marketing solutions provider in China as measured by gross billing generated from short video advertisements in 2019, with a market share of 3.4%, according to iResearch. At the proposed IPO price range of HK$5.56-7.08 per share, Netjoy will have a market cap of HK$4,448-5,664 million ($574-731 million). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$1,166.6 million ($151 million). Six cornerstone investors will subscribe for $39 million of the offer shares (23.91% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the price range). The cornerstone investors are Affin Hwang Asset Management, HSBC Global Asset Management, Pacific Asset Management, Seedlings Fund, Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and SenseTime.In Netjoy IPO Initiation: Joy Divisions, we stated that for investors seeking Chinese adtech exposure, we think Netjoy’s fundamentals are attractive. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netjoy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29729:1" rel="noopener">Netjoy (2131 HK)</a> is an ad tech company which connects advertising customers and media partners. It is the third-largest online marketing solutions provider in China as measured by gross billing generated from short video advertisements in 2019, with a market share of 3.4%, according to iResearch. Netjoy has launched a Hong Kong IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,166.6 million ($150 million), at the mid-point of the IPO price range. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The IPO performance of Chinese ad tech companies has been mixed. Consequently, backing the winners is crucial to generate investment returns in the Chinese ad tech sector. For investors seeking Chinese adtech exposure, we think Netjoy’s fundamentals are attractive. We will discuss the IPO valuation in our next piece. </p></div>

Netjoy (2131 HK) is an ad tech company which connects advertising customers and media partners. It is the third-largest online marketing solutions provider in China as measured by gross billing generated from short video advertisements in 2019, with a market share of 3.4%, according to iResearch. Netjoy has launched a Hong Kong IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,166.6 million ($150 million), at the mid-point of the IPO price range. The IPO performance of Chinese ad tech companies has been mixed. Consequently, backing the winners is crucial to generate investment returns in the Chinese ad tech sector. For investors seeking Chinese adtech exposure, we think Netjoy’s fundamentals are attractive. We will discuss the IPO valuation in our next piece. 

China

Forgame Holdings Limited develops and publishes web based games. The Company produces and licenses games for both computer based and mobile phone platforms.

OneForce Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides information technology solutions including software development and maintenance services, as well as tailor-made turnkey equipment to electric power distribution companies. OneForce Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Linekong Interactive Group Co., Ltd. operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in developing and publishing online mobile games. Linekong Interactive Group conducts business in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, and other countries and regions.

FingerTango Inc. operates as a mobile games development company. The Company provides mobile games development, publishing, marketing, and other services. FingerTango markets its products throughout China.

Cheetah Mobile Inc develops internet and mobile enhancement software and applications. The Company develop and operates and internet browser, and internet security, memory saving, power optimization, mobile games, and photo collage applications. Cheetah Mobile operates in China.

Bluedon Information Safe Technology Co Ltd provides information security products, information security integration and information security services. The Company's main products include security gateway type products, security audit type products, and application security products.

Bluedon Information Security Tech (300297 CH)

Beijing Beida Jade Bird Universal Sci-Tech Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, researches, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells network security system, wireless fire alarm system, security ICs, smart card application system, and remote meter reading system.  The Company also trades computers and related products as well as develops properties.

Sinosoft Technology Group Limited is a provider of application software products and solutions. The Company principally develops and markets export tax software and related services, carbon management solutions, e-Government solutions.

BII Railway Transportation Technology Holdings Company Limited develops transportation system software products. The Company produces traffic integration systems, subway civil communication systems, automatic ticket checking systems, and other system products. BII Railway Transportation Technology Holdings also operates financing businesses.

Oneconnect Financial Technology Co., Ltd. software as a services. The Company offers technological applications for financial institutes such as digital transformations, revenue increase, and risk management. Oneconnect Financial Technology serves customers in China.

OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT US)

Voltage Incorporation provides mobile content service for major mobile carriers. The company designs, produces and develops mobile website business. Voltage also operates mobile commerce website and other related businesses.

JCurve Solutions Ltd provides telecommunications management solutions and expense reduction services.  The Company offers an Internet enabled asset management and expenditure reporting service for clients' organizations mobile phones, management of clients' organizations fixed line voice and data infrastructure and broker services to negotiate cheaper telephone costs.

FueTrek Co., Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets LSI(Large-Scale Integration). The Company's products include sound generator LSI for cellular phone ring tone melody.

Asset Vision Co Ltd provides software solutions. The Company offers cloud-based asset and work management platform for inspection and maintenance of digital assets. Asset Vision serves customers in Australia.

Sockets Inc. develops embedded application software used in cellular phones. The Company provides mobile search engine services for music, movies, books, and games.  Sockets also builds and maintains database for contents and user profiles.

Cayenne Entertainment Technology Co.,Lt. mainly provides online games that specialize in air battle, racing and casual games. The company also operates online social networks that support web game community and virtual shopping malls.

M-Mode Berhad is an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides mobile media content and data application services. M-Mode specializes in the development and provision of a variety of mobile media content ranging from entertainment to information and news delivered via SMS, MMS, or WAP/GPRS.

G Three Holdings CORPORATION is a holding company established with Connect Technologies Corporation as a wholly owned subsidiary.  The Company mainly provides system solution, consulting services, and software products designed for cellular phones.

TOBESOFT Co., Ltd develops software platform based on Rich Internet Application (RIA).

VSolar Group Bhd, through its subsidiary, designs, develops, markets, and distributes material requirement planning software.  The Company also provides training, installation, support, and implementation services. Fast Track serves plastic and garment manufacturers.

Aurora Mobile Limited designs and develops software solutions. The Company offers a mobile big data platform that offers push notification, instant messaging, analytics, and short message service and sharing solutions. Aurora Mobile serves clients in China.

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Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG US)

DiDi Global: Time to Book a Ride?

Our bull-case SoTP valuation points to a 22% upside while our bear-case SoTP valuation points to a -19% downside. The shares seem fairly valued and...

Arun George

IClick’s Improved Privatisation Bid from a Second Suitor

iClick announced another privatisation proposal, this time from Infinity Equity at $7.50 in cash per ADS. The emergence of two bidders suggests...

Arun George

IClick’s Privatisation Bid from PAG and Oasis

The $6.75 per ADS offer is designed to take advantage of the market sell-off by enriching insiders at the expense of minorities. If the co-founders...

Arun George

Netjoy IPO: Valuation Insights

At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are $151 million. We would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price...

Arun George

Netjoy IPO Initiation: Joy Divisions

Netjoy has launched an HK IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,166.6 million ($150 million), at the mid-point. For investors seeking Chinese adtech...

Arun George

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