Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

USD/KRW gunning to test 1,153 triple lows. USD/SGD met 1.3450 for a wave 5 low and USD long with risk of a re test. AUD and INR favored USD macro bull plays. USD shorts focused in PHP (bear wedge), IDR (macro triangulation key break down from major support). USD/MYR and USD/TWD working into USD long territory.USD/JPY's rising wedge break support and re test of resistance axis is a key inflection for risk in Asia and the globe.DXY upturn off of lower wedge support with bigger price support near 96.00. MACD triple base low places a fairly good floor for now (USD base support) and a must hold level. MACD break of macro support would usher in a more bearish USD cycle and will act as a key inflection point. DXY price wedge favors the upside as long as 96 support is maintained.

USD/KRW gunning to test 1,153 triple lows. USD/SGD met 1.3450 for a wave 5 low and USD long with risk of a re test. AUD and INR favored USD macro bull plays. USD shorts focused in PHP (bear wedge), IDR (macro triangulation key break down from major support). USD/MYR and USD/TWD working into USD long territory.USD/JPY's rising wedge break support and re test of resistance axis is a key inflection for risk in Asia and the globe.DXY upturn off of lower wedge support with bigger price support near 96.00. MACD triple base low places a fairly good floor for now (USD base support) and a must hold level. MACD break of macro support would usher in a more bearish USD cycle and will act as a key inflection point. DXY price wedge favors the upside as long as 96 support is maintained.

USD Moving into a Cycle Low in Asia Aligning with an Equity Rally Stall

Equity markets are clearly overbought tactically with a more bullish macro underpin going into Q1 2020. Here we take a look at some higher conviction patterns that would tilt to a risk off sequence (equity pullback). We have touted putting on short protection in weaker equity sectors/stocks. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jpy" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22826:1">JPY (USDJPY CURNCY) , A</a>UD/JPY, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/w-t-offshore-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12370:1">W&amp;T Offshore (WTI US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY), T</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-states-treasury" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22878:1">reasury (10 Yr Generic) (T GOVT)</a> are all aligning for a mild to mid degree tactical pullback in equities within a higher degree macro bull cycle.These wedge patterns exhibit a minimum 70% probability of breaking to the downside (gold to the upside) and in the case of the USD/JPY odds increase on the back of bear divergence we have outlined in recent weeks near the 109.50 barrier. 107.50 is the pivot level to test and break, holding would see a final push to the 110 topside barrier.

Equity markets are clearly overbought tactically with a more bullish macro underpin going into Q1 2020. Here we take a look at some higher conviction patterns that would tilt to a risk off sequence (equity pullback). We have touted putting on short protection in weaker equity sectors/stocks. The JPY (USDJPY CURNCY) , AUD/JPY, W&amp;T Offshore (WTI US) , Gold (GOLD COMDTY), Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (T GOVT) are all aligning for a mild to mid degree tactical pullback in equities within a higher degree macro bull cycle.These wedge patterns exhibit a minimum 70% probability of breaking to the downside (gold to the upside) and in the case of the USD/JPY odds increase on the back of bear divergence we have outlined in recent weeks near the 109.50 barrier. 107.50 is the pivot level to test and break, holding would see a final push to the 110 topside barrier.

Risk Triggers that Would Lead an Equity Pullback

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

AUD/NZD is still languishing around record lows.  Pessimism over the AUD increased as the Australian economy stalled in the second half of last year, the Royal Commission into the financial sector unsettled confidence, the housing market downturn accelerated, political uncertainty peaked into the national election in May, and the RBA scurried to cut rates twice at back-to-back monthly meetings in June and July.  Now the regulatory, political and economic trends are moving in favour of the AUD and against NZD.  RBNZ is toughing capital requirements on NZ banks. The Australian housing market is stabilising, NZ’s is slowing.  The Australian political cycle is as positive as it has been for a decade, and tax cuts have been delivered.  Australian trade performance is much stronger, and its fiscal position has caught up to and over-taken NZ’s.  NZ is expected to cut rates in August and is largely pacing Australian rates lower.

AUD/NZD is still languishing around record lows.  Pessimism over the AUD increased as the Australian economy stalled in the second half of last year, the Royal Commission into the financial sector unsettled confidence, the housing market downturn accelerated, political uncertainty peaked into the national election in May, and the RBA scurried to cut rates twice at back-to-back monthly meetings in June and July.  Now the regulatory, political and economic trends are moving in favour of the AUD and against NZD.  RBNZ is toughing capital requirements on NZ banks. The Australian housing market is stabilising, NZ’s is slowing.  The Australian political cycle is as positive as it has been for a decade, and tax cuts have been delivered.  Australian trade performance is much stronger, and its fiscal position has caught up to and over-taken NZ’s.  NZ is expected to cut rates in August and is largely pacing Australian rates lower. 

Big Issues Holding Down AUD/NZD Have Flipped

It might be odd to suggest that the AUD will rise just at the point when the RBA has gone to max-dovishness.  But yet we are. RBA dovishness is matched by the Fed.  The global pivot to easier policy is boosting EM and commodity currencies, and the AUD has lagged its peers, suggesting upside risk.  Australian equities are outperforming, reflecting both external factors and positive news at home.  Just as the RBA, investors, and Aussies get themselves in a funk, the news has got better, quite a bit better.  The LNC was returned surprisingly and emphatically.  They plan tax cuts and are likely to respond to increasing pressure to further boost infrastructure spending.  The housing market is stabilising, boosted by regulatory credit easing and the return of the market-friendly government.  The AUD is way underdone relative to commodity prices, the external balance is at a generational high, and the government budget is in rude health.  The focus on US-China trade relations and RBA policy has hit the AUD, but may have had maximum impact.  The Xi-Trump meeting next weekend could go either way, but if talks resume and further tariff increases put on hold, we expect some modest further rise in risk appetite and upside for the AUD.

It might be odd to suggest that the AUD will rise just at the point when the RBA has gone to max-dovishness.  But yet we are. RBA dovishness is matched by the Fed.  The global pivot to easier policy is boosting EM and commodity currencies, and the AUD has lagged its peers, suggesting upside risk.  Australian equities are outperforming, reflecting both external factors and positive news at home.  Just as the RBA, investors, and Aussies get themselves in a funk, the news has got better, quite a bit better.  The LNC was returned surprisingly and emphatically.  They plan tax cuts and are likely to respond to increasing pressure to further boost infrastructure spending.  The housing market is stabilising, boosted by regulatory credit easing and the return of the market-friendly government.  The AUD is way underdone relative to commodity prices, the external balance is at a generational high, and the government budget is in rude health.  The focus on US-China trade relations and RBA policy has hit the AUD, but may have had maximum impact.  The Xi-Trump meeting next weekend could go either way, but if talks resume and further tariff increases put on hold, we expect some modest further rise in risk appetite and upside for the AUD.

RBA Has Been Trying to Hold the AUD Beach Ball Under Water; Its Time May Be Up

CNY falls sharply illustrating that China bears most of the fallout from the trade war.  The US economy also suffers, mostly from the risk that China boycotts US brands, but Trump may have a significant advantage.  Bilateral US tariff policy may be an effective policy to counter China’s policy of subsidizing and regulatory support of its industry.  Trump can see a political gain from the trade war and is unlikely to easily back down.  The escalation in the dispute is likely to more permanently dampen optimism that the global economy will soon rebound from its slowdown.  Downward pressure on CNY is dragging down Asian currencies, although in the long run, production may shift to other Asian nations and support their currencies.  The AUD is dragged down both as an Asian currency and a commodity currency.  The EUR stabilizes, even though the EU economy is threatened, for the same reason JPY gains – little room for yields to fall, current account surplus, a reduction in carry trades.  Safe-haven currencies gain against a weakened USD; including bitcoin.

CNY falls sharply illustrating that China bears most of the fallout from the trade war.  The US economy also suffers, mostly from the risk that China boycotts US brands, but Trump may have a significant advantage.  Bilateral US tariff policy may be an effective policy to counter China’s policy of subsidizing and regulatory support of its industry.  Trump can see a political gain from the trade war and is unlikely to easily back down.  The escalation in the dispute is likely to more permanently dampen optimism that the global economy will soon rebound from its slowdown.  Downward pressure on CNY is dragging down Asian currencies, although in the long run, production may shift to other Asian nations and support their currencies.  The AUD is dragged down both as an Asian currency and a commodity currency.  The EUR stabilizes, even though the EU economy is threatened, for the same reason JPY gains – little room for yields to fall, current account surplus, a reduction in carry trades.  Safe-haven currencies gain against a weakened USD; including bitcoin.

Trump Presses His Advantage Against China; CNY Drags Down Asian Currencies

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

USD Moving into a Cycle Low in Asia Aligning with an Equity Rally Stall

USD/KRW gunning to test 1,153 triple lows. USD/SGD met 1.3450 for a wave 5 low and USD long with risk of a re test. AUD and INR favored USD macro...

Thomas Schroeder

Risk Triggers that Would Lead an Equity Pullback

Equity markets are clearly overbought tactically with a more bullish macro underpin going into Q1 2020. Here we take a look at some higher...

Thomas Schroeder

Big Issues Holding Down AUD/NZD Have Flipped

AUD/NZD is still languishing around record lows. Pessimism over the AUD increased as the Australian economy stalled in the second half of last...

Greg Gibbs

RBA Has Been Trying to Hold the AUD Beach Ball Under Water; Its Time May Be Up

It might be odd to suggest that the AUD will rise just at the point when the RBA has gone to max-dovishness. But yet we are. RBA dovishness is...

Greg Gibbs

Trump Presses His Advantage Against China; CNY Drags Down Asian Currencies

CNY falls sharply illustrating that China bears most of the fallout from the trade war. The US economy also suffers, mostly from the risk that...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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