Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<p>The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.</p>

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a> is Australia’s largest airport and the only listed airport on ASX. Sydney Airport has granted a consortium (Sydney Aviation Alliance) non-exclusive due diligence access based on a further revised indicative proposal of A$8.75 cash per share. The revised indicative offer is A$8.75 per share is a 52% premium to the unaffected price of A$5.75 (1 July). The revised indicative offer is also a marginal 3.6% bump to the first revised offer of A$8.45 per share received from the consortium on 16 August.</p><p>Pushing for a better price is part of the M&amp;A game. The Board were said to be seeking a price around A$9.00 per share, according to press reports. However, the Board faced increasing shareholder pushback to engage with the consortium and facilitate due diligence. The consortium viewed A$9.00 per share as excessive but shareholder feedback suggested that the price of A$8.75 per share would get the Board onside. UniSuper, the largest independent shareholder, will rollover its shares instead of receiving cash under the scheme and will be required to vote as a separate class on the scheme. </p><p>The Board intends to recommend the revised offer subject to a binding scheme implementation agreement and no superior offer. The due diligence which is expected to take four weeks should be relatively straightforward due to the consortium’s expertise in airport infrastructure. The deal requires regulatory approval from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) and the Foreign Investment Review Board. The ACCC will commence a review of the proposed transaction “<em>in due course</em>” and the review should take about three months to complete. The shareholder vote for approval is likely to be held in 1Q22. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Overall, we think that the further revised indicative offer is attractive and marginally above the pre-COVID-19 rights adjusted share price high reached in December 2019. The offer will prove attractive to shareholders who are looking for valuation certainty in an environment where the pace of the recovery in international air travel remains unclear. At the last close price of A$8.23, the shares are trading at a 6.3% gross spread to the indicative offer.</p></div>

Sydney Airport (SYD AU) is Australia’s largest airport and the only listed airport on ASX. Sydney Airport has granted a consortium (Sydney Aviation Alliance) non-exclusive due diligence access based on a further revised indicative proposal of A$8.75 cash per share. The revised indicative offer is A$8.75 per share is a 52% premium to the unaffected price of A$5.75 (1 July). The revised indicative offer is also a marginal 3.6% bump to the first revised offer of A$8.45 per share received from the consortium on 16 August.Pushing for a better price is part of the M&amp;A game. The Board were said to be seeking a price around A$9.00 per share, according to press reports. However, the Board faced increasing shareholder pushback to engage with the consortium and facilitate due diligence. The consortium viewed A$9.00 per share as excessive but shareholder feedback suggested that the price of A$8.75 per share would get the Board onside. UniSuper, the largest independent shareholder, will rollover its shares instead of receiving cash under the scheme and will be required to vote as a separate class on the scheme. The Board intends to recommend the revised offer subject to a binding scheme implementation agreement and no superior offer. The due diligence which is expected to take four weeks should be relatively straightforward due to the consortium’s expertise in airport infrastructure. The deal requires regulatory approval from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) and the Foreign Investment Review Board. The ACCC will commence a review of the proposed transaction “in due course” and the review should take about three months to complete. The shareholder vote for approval is likely to be held in 1Q22. Overall, we think that the further revised indicative offer is attractive and marginally above the pre-COVID-19 rights adjusted share price high reached in December 2019. The offer will prove attractive to shareholders who are looking for valuation certainty in an environment where the pace of the recovery in international air travel remains unclear. At the last close price of A$8.23, the shares are trading at a 6.3% gross spread to the indicative offer.

Sydney Airport’s Further Revised Offer Gets the Board’s Approval

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a> is Australia’s largest airport and the only listed airport on ASX. Sydney Airport has rejected a revised conditional, non-binding indicative offer of A$8.45 per share from a consortium (Sydney Aviation Alliance). The revised indicative offer of A$8.45 per share is a 45% premium to the unaffected price of A$5.81 (2 July). The revised indicative offer is also a marginal 2.4% bump to the original offer of A$8.25 per share received from the consortium on 5 July. </p><p>The Board rejected the revised offer as it continues to undervalue Sydney Airport and is opportunistic considering the COVID-19 pandemic. The Board argues that Sydney Airport has a 74-year lease on one of Australia’s most important valuable pieces of infrastructure. </p><p>Pushing for a better price is part of the M&amp;A game. The consortium responded to the Board’s rejection by warning that they are prepared to walk away but at the same time failing to declare that the A$8.45 per share revised offer was its final offer. The Board is open to engaging with the consortium if they lift the offer and is said to be seeking a price around A$9.00 per share, according to press reports. </p><p>The issue is complicated by the different methodologies used by the Board and the consortium to determine the rights adjusted share price to account for the dilutive raise in August 2020. The Board also argues that any proposal should be benchmarked against the pre-COVID share price high of A$9.20 per share reached on 6 December 2019. We think that the revised indicative offer is in line with the pre-COVID-19 rights adjusted share price high reached in December 2019. </p><p>The Board is facing increasing shareholder pushback to at least engage with the consortium and facilitate due diligence. UniSuper, the largest shareholder, has branded the rejection of the revised offer as “<em>disappointing</em>” and wants the Board to engage with the consortium.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Overall, the gamesmanship suggests both sides are now invested in securing a deal and the 6.5% valuation differential (A$9.00 Board’s value vs A$8.45 bid) suggest the two sides are not far apart on price. At the last close price of A$7.70, the shares are trading at a 9.7% gross spread to the revised indicative offer. The interim results will be announced on 20 August before market open.</p></div>

Sydney Airport (SYD AU) is Australia’s largest airport and the only listed airport on ASX. Sydney Airport has rejected a revised conditional, non-binding indicative offer of A$8.45 per share from a consortium (Sydney Aviation Alliance). The revised indicative offer of A$8.45 per share is a 45% premium to the unaffected price of A$5.81 (2 July). The revised indicative offer is also a marginal 2.4% bump to the original offer of A$8.25 per share received from the consortium on 5 July. The Board rejected the revised offer as it continues to undervalue Sydney Airport and is opportunistic considering the COVID-19 pandemic. The Board argues that Sydney Airport has a 74-year lease on one of Australia’s most important valuable pieces of infrastructure. Pushing for a better price is part of the M&amp;A game. The consortium responded to the Board’s rejection by warning that they are prepared to walk away but at the same time failing to declare that the A$8.45 per share revised offer was its final offer. The Board is open to engaging with the consortium if they lift the offer and is said to be seeking a price around A$9.00 per share, according to press reports. The issue is complicated by the different methodologies used by the Board and the consortium to determine the rights adjusted share price to account for the dilutive raise in August 2020. The Board also argues that any proposal should be benchmarked against the pre-COVID share price high of A$9.20 per share reached on 6 December 2019. We think that the revised indicative offer is in line with the pre-COVID-19 rights adjusted share price high reached in December 2019. The Board is facing increasing shareholder pushback to at least engage with the consortium and facilitate due diligence. UniSuper, the largest shareholder, has branded the rejection of the revised offer as “disappointing” and wants the Board to engage with the consortium.Overall, the gamesmanship suggests both sides are now invested in securing a deal and the 6.5% valuation differential (A$9.00 Board’s value vs A$8.45 bid) suggest the two sides are not far apart on price. At the last close price of A$7.70, the shares are trading at a 9.7% gross spread to the revised indicative offer. The interim results will be announced on 20 August before market open.

Sydney Airport's Rejection of a Revised Offer Is Likely Not the Final Act

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a> is Australia’s largest airport and the only listed airport on ASX. Sydney Airport revealed a conditional, non-binding indicative offer from a consortium (Sydney Aviation Alliance) comprising of IFM, QSuper and Global Infrastructure Partners. The indicative offer of A$8.25 per share is a 42% premium to the unaffected price of A$5.81 (2 July). The offer price will be reduced by any dividends declared or paid prior to the scheme taking effect. The proposed transaction would be implemented via a scheme of arrangement.</p><p>The Board noted the offer was below its pre-pandemic share price and said it would review the proposal, which is contingent on granting due diligence and unanimous recommendation by the Board in the absence of a superior offer. </p><p>Crucially, the offer is conditional on UniSuper agreeing to reinvest its equity interest for an equivalent equity interest in the consortium’s holding vehicle. UniSuper is the largest shareholder who represents 15.28% of the outstanding shares. In response to the indicative offer, UniSuper said that it saw “<em>merit in Sydney Airport being converted from a publicly listed company to an unlisted company. UniSuper also has a favourable view of the consortium partners.</em>" UniSuper will make a final decision after all details have been considered.</p><p>We think that the indicative offer is opportunistic as it offers a modest premium to pre-COVID-19 share prices. However, airports in Australia have been hard hit by tough international travel restrictions, sporadic lockdowns and slow vaccination roll-out. The timing and the shape of a recovery (particularly the crucial international travel) remains highly uncertain suggesting the shares are more suited to the patient long-term investor.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Nevertheless, this non-binding indicative offer lays a marker for the intrinsic value of the shares, gives the Board an opportunity to negotiate a bump or entice other infrastructure bidders to start a bidding war. At the last close price of A$7.78, the shares are trading at a 6% gross spread to the indicative offer.</p></div>

Sydney Airport (SYD AU) is Australia’s largest airport and the only listed airport on ASX. Sydney Airport revealed a conditional, non-binding indicative offer from a consortium (Sydney Aviation Alliance) comprising of IFM, QSuper and Global Infrastructure Partners. The indicative offer of A$8.25 per share is a 42% premium to the unaffected price of A$5.81 (2 July). The offer price will be reduced by any dividends declared or paid prior to the scheme taking effect. The proposed transaction would be implemented via a scheme of arrangement.The Board noted the offer was below its pre-pandemic share price and said it would review the proposal, which is contingent on granting due diligence and unanimous recommendation by the Board in the absence of a superior offer. Crucially, the offer is conditional on UniSuper agreeing to reinvest its equity interest for an equivalent equity interest in the consortium’s holding vehicle. UniSuper is the largest shareholder who represents 15.28% of the outstanding shares. In response to the indicative offer, UniSuper said that it saw “merit in Sydney Airport being converted from a publicly listed company to an unlisted company. UniSuper also has a favourable view of the consortium partners." UniSuper will make a final decision after all details have been considered.We think that the indicative offer is opportunistic as it offers a modest premium to pre-COVID-19 share prices. However, airports in Australia have been hard hit by tough international travel restrictions, sporadic lockdowns and slow vaccination roll-out. The timing and the shape of a recovery (particularly the crucial international travel) remains highly uncertain suggesting the shares are more suited to the patient long-term investor.Nevertheless, this non-binding indicative offer lays a marker for the intrinsic value of the shares, gives the Board an opportunity to negotiate a bump or entice other infrastructure bidders to start a bidding war. At the last close price of A$7.78, the shares are trading at a 6% gross spread to the indicative offer.

Sydney Airport Gets an Opportunistic Indicative Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.</p></div><div>We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinnacle-investment-manageme" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20624:1" rel="noopener">Wilson (PNI AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sealink-travel-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6400:1" rel="noopener">Sealink Travel (SLK AU)</a> while the potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nrw-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9271:1" rel="noopener">NRW Holdings (NWH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a> is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> is a close add and the corresponding deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.</div><div></div><div>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>, the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - Centuria Capital (CNI AU), Wilson (PNI AU) and Sealink Travel (SLK AU) while the potential deletions are Nuix Limited (NXL AU), NRW Holdings (NWH AU) and G8 Education (GEM AU).
Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU).
De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is a close add and the corresponding deletion is Westgold Resources (WGX AU).There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.For G8 Education (GEM AU), the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

New Zealand

Auckland International Airport Limited owns and operates the Auckland International Airport.  The Airport includes a single runway, an international terminal and two domestic terminals.  The Airport also has commercial facilities which includes airfreight operations, car rental services, commercial banking center and office buildings.

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Auckland International Airport (AIA AU)

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing important intermediate-term support levels of $99, $54, and $76.50...

Vermilion Research

Sydney Airport’s Further Revised Offer Gets the Board’s Approval

Sydney Airport has granted DD to a Sydney Aviation Alliance based on a revised price of A$8.75. The offer is attractive and at the last price of...

Arun George

Sydney Airport's Rejection of a Revised Offer Is Likely Not the Final Act

The Board rejects a revised offer of A$8.45, a 2.4% bump to the previous offer. At the last close price of A$7.70, the shares are trading at a...

Arun George

Sydney Airport Gets an Opportunistic Indicative Offer

The non-binding indicative offer lays a marker for the intrinsic value of the shares, gives the Board an opportunity to negotiate a bump or entice...

Arun George

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

We see 3 potential changes to the ASX200 at the Sep rebalance with CNI, PNI and SLK being included and NXL, NRW and GEM being deleted. Passive...

Brian Freitas

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