New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>New pax assumptions: AIA now expects FY23 passenger (pax) levels consistent with our expectations</li><li>Conservative guidance track record: AIA has a track record of under-promising and over-delivering when setting earnings guidance</li><li>Capex guidance retained: Management has retained its FY23 capex guidance of NZ$600m–NZ$700m</li></ul>

New pax assumptions: AIA now expects FY23 passenger (pax) levels consistent with our expectationsConservative guidance track record: AIA has a track record of under-promising and over-delivering when setting earnings guidanceCapex guidance retained: Management has retained its FY23 capex guidance of NZ$600m–NZ$700m

<ul><li>Auckland Airport (AIA) has upgraded its FY23 NPAT guidance range from NZ$50m-NZ$100m to NZ$100m-NZ$130m</li><li>Our FY23 NPAT estimate is already at NZ$134m and Visible Alpha consensus at ~NZ$112m</li><li>There is no change to the FY23 capex guidance of NZ$600m-NZ$700m.</li></ul>

Auckland Airport (AIA) has upgraded its FY23 NPAT guidance range from NZ$50m-NZ$100m to NZ$100m-NZ$130mOur FY23 NPAT estimate is already at NZ$134m and Visible Alpha consensus at ~NZ$112mThere is no change to the FY23 capex guidance of NZ$600m-NZ$700m.

Auckland Airport: Guidance Upgrade; Consensus Already There

<ul><li>Wellington Airport’s (WIAL) PSE4 aero pricing for FY20-FY24 has been given a tick of approval from the Commerce Commission (ComCom) in its final report decision (published today).</li><li>The ComCom appears to have shown an element of leniency in its analysis and final decision.</li><li>WIAL targeted a PSE4 return of 5.88%, above the ComCom’s midpoint WACC estimate of 5.67%</li></ul>

Wellington Airport’s (WIAL) PSE4 aero pricing for FY20-FY24 has been given a tick of approval from the Commerce Commission (ComCom) in its final report decision (published today).The ComCom appears to have shown an element of leniency in its analysis and final decision.WIAL targeted a PSE4 return of 5.88%, above the ComCom’s midpoint WACC estimate of 5.67%

Auckland Airport: ComCom Tick for Wellington’s Aero Pricing

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Freightways (FRE): We are attracted to FRE due to (1) the strength of new customer, (2) further pricing for effort opportunities, and (3) the disciplined expansion into the Australian express freight market</li><li>Mainfreight (MFT): MFT is a high quality business with a proven track record for growth</li><li>Port of Tauranga (POT): POT offers attractive defensive characteristics in the current environment</li></ul>

Freightways (FRE): We are attracted to FRE due to (1) the strength of new customer, (2) further pricing for effort opportunities, and (3) the disciplined expansion into the Australian express freight marketMainfreight (MFT): MFT is a high quality business with a proven track record for growthPort of Tauranga (POT): POT offers attractive defensive characteristics in the current environment

<ul><li>The aviation recovery path is slower than previously anticipated; it's being held back by system capacity constraints due to labour and aircraft availability</li><li>AIA is entering a significant capex bulge that dwarfs previous periods of elevated capital development</li><li>The duty free re-tender process is being deferred until the end of FY24</li></ul>

The aviation recovery path is slower than previously anticipated; it's being held back by system capacity constraints due to labour and aircraft availabilityAIA is entering a significant capex bulge that dwarfs previous periods of elevated capital developmentThe duty free re-tender process is being deferred until the end of FY24

Auckland Airport: FY22 — Landing on UNDERPERFORM

New Zealand

Auckland International Airport Limited owns and operates the Auckland International Airport.  The Airport includes a single runway, an international terminal and two domestic terminals.  The Airport also has commercial facilities which includes airfreight operations, car rental services, commercial banking center and office buildings.

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Auckland International Airport (AIA AU)

Auckland Airport: Much Ado About Nothing

Auckland Airport (AIA) has upgraded its FY23 earnings guidance, though the new range is still below our expectations; Management guidance has...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport: Guidance Upgrade; Consensus Already There

Auckland Airport (AIA) has upgraded its FY23 NPAT guidance range from NZ$50m-NZ$100m to NZ$100m-NZ$130m; We viewed the previous guidance was given...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport: ComCom Tick for Wellington’s Aero Pricing

Wellington Airport’s (WIAL) PSE4 aero pricing for FY20-FY24 has been given a tick of approval from the Commerce Commission (ComCom) in its final...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends: Mixed Bag

The post-pandemic world is a mixed bag for the transport sector: aviation is enjoying an expected and much needed resurgence; global airfreight...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport: FY22 — Landing on UNDERPERFORM

Auckland Airport's close to break-even FY22 result is largely irrelevant when considering the bigger picture, FY23 too

Forsyth Barr

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