New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Auckland International Airport / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Regulatory risk for Auckland Airport has increased due to a Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment review of the Commerce Act and stakeholder engagement on the effectiveness of the current Information Disclosure regime for airports.</li><li>The worst-case scenario for Auckland Airport is a potential change to its dual till regulatory model, which could reduce robust returns from its commercial operations.</li><li>Despite the increased regulatory risk, material changes to the current Information Disclosure regime are considered unlikely, but Auckland Airport's current valuation multiples do not account for potential negative regulatory outcomes.</li></ul>

Regulatory risk for Auckland Airport has increased due to a Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment review of the Commerce Act and stakeholder engagement on the effectiveness of the current Information Disclosure regime for airports.The worst-case scenario for Auckland Airport is a potential change to its dual till regulatory model, which could reduce robust returns from its commercial operations.Despite the increased regulatory risk, material changes to the current Information Disclosure regime are considered unlikely, but Auckland Airport's current valuation multiples do not account for potential negative regulatory outcomes.

Auckland Airport - Regulatory Risk Reappears

<ul><li>Auckland Airport (AIA) is downgraded to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL due to Commerce Commission's review of PSE4 pricing period.</li><li>Key negatives include targeted excess profits, ignored non-priced services, and potential regulatory scrutiny.</li><li>Market consensus earnings expectations are optimistic and need moderation; AIA is not considered cheap at the current trading multiples.</li></ul>

Auckland Airport (AIA) is downgraded to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL due to Commerce Commission's review of PSE4 pricing period.Key negatives include targeted excess profits, ignored non-priced services, and potential regulatory scrutiny.Market consensus earnings expectations are optimistic and need moderation; AIA is not considered cheap at the current trading multiples.

Auckland Airport Another ComCom Speeding Ticket

<ul><li>Auckland Airport has selected Lagardère as its new single duty-free concessionaire for an eight-year contract following a global tender process.</li><li>AIA will assume more risk under the new contract, sharing passenger risk with Lagardère, with minimum annual guarantees remaining a feature.</li><li>AIA aims to return its retail income per total passenger to FY19 levels but anticipates a gap until FY27 due to refurbishment disruptions.</li></ul>

Auckland Airport has selected Lagardère as its new single duty-free concessionaire for an eight-year contract following a global tender process.AIA will assume more risk under the new contract, sharing passenger risk with Lagardère, with minimum annual guarantees remaining a feature.AIA aims to return its retail income per total passenger to FY19 levels but anticipates a gap until FY27 due to refurbishment disruptions.

Auckland Airport (AIA.NZ) - Duty Free Tender Concluded

<ul><li>Auckland Airport (AIA) has selected Lagardère as its new single duty-free concessionaire with an eight-year deal.</li><li>We expect the effective concession yield is similar to the existing concession held by its own JV entity, LagardèreAWPL.</li><li>Consequently, the outlook for AIA's retail income is unlikely to benefit from a step-up, as has been the case historically with new duty-free concessions. </li></ul>

Auckland Airport (AIA) has selected Lagardère as its new single duty-free concessionaire with an eight-year deal.We expect the effective concession yield is similar to the existing concession held by its own JV entity, LagardèreAWPL.Consequently, the outlook for AIA's retail income is unlikely to benefit from a step-up, as has been the case historically with new duty-free concessions. 

Auckland Airport - Lagardère ​​​​​​​Layover Extended

<ul><li>Auckland Airport's (AIA) 1H25 result implies a lower forward earnings growth trajectory, but the change driven more by non-cash/temporary factors than cash/permanent factors.</li><li>These include: (1) higher opex, which continues to surprise on the upside, (2) more subdued domestic passenger (pax) growth, (3) materially higher depreciation, and (4) greater acknowledgement of a weaker airport retail environment compared to pre-COVID.</li><li>The first two are largely temporary in nature, mitigated by the next aeronautical price reset from FY28. </li></ul>

Auckland Airport's (AIA) 1H25 result implies a lower forward earnings growth trajectory, but the change driven more by non-cash/temporary factors than cash/permanent factors.These include: (1) higher opex, which continues to surprise on the upside, (2) more subdued domestic passenger (pax) growth, (3) materially higher depreciation, and (4) greater acknowledgement of a weaker airport retail environment compared to pre-COVID.The first two are largely temporary in nature, mitigated by the next aeronautical price reset from FY28. 

Auckland Airport - 1H25—Earnings on Lower Flight Path

New Zealand

Auckland International Airport Limited owns and operates the Auckland International Airport.  The Airport includes a single runway, an international terminal and two domestic terminals.  The Airport also has commercial facilities which includes airfreight operations, car rental services, commercial banking center and office buildings.

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Auckland International Airport (AIA AU)

Auckland Airport - Regulatory Risk Reappears

The worst-case scenario for Auckland Airport is a potential change to its dual till regulatory model, which could reduce robust returns from its...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport Another ComCom Speeding Ticket

Auckland Airport (AIA) is downgraded to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL due to Commerce Commission's review of PSE4 pricing period. Key negatives...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport (AIA.NZ) - Duty Free Tender Concluded

Auckland Airport has selected Lagardère as its new single duty-free concessionaire for an eight-year contract following a global tender...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport - Lagardère Layover Extended

Auckland Airport (AIA) has selected Lagardère as its new single duty-free concessionaire with an eight-year deal. We expect the effective...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport - 1H25—Earnings on Lower Flight Path

Auckland Airport's (AIA) 1H25 result implies a lower forward earnings growth trajectory, but the change driven more by non-cash/temporary factors...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Auckland Airport - Regulatory Risk Reappears

The worst-case scenario for Auckland Airport is a potential change to its dual till regulatory model, which could reduce robust returns from its...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport Another ComCom Speeding Ticket

Auckland Airport (AIA) is downgraded to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL due to Commerce Commission's review of PSE4 pricing period. Key negatives...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport (AIA.NZ) - Duty Free Tender Concluded

Auckland Airport has selected Lagardère as its new single duty-free concessionaire for an eight-year contract following a global tender...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport - Lagardère ​​​​​​​Layover Extended

Auckland Airport (AIA) has selected Lagardère as its new single duty-free concessionaire with an eight-year deal. We expect the effective...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport - 1H25—Earnings on Lower Flight Path

Auckland Airport's (AIA) 1H25 result implies a lower forward earnings growth trajectory, but the change driven more by non-cash/temporary factors...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport - Lagardère Layover Extended