Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Nestle India: Nestle’s 1QCY23 earnings surprised positively, led by strong revenue performance. However, the margin saw a marginal miss</li><li>Domestic revenue grew 21% YoY while exports grew by 25%</li><li>The growth was led by a healthy balance of pricing, volume and mix (around mid-single-digit volume growth)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nestle India: Nestle’s 1QCY23 earnings surprised positively, led by strong revenue performance. However, the margin saw a marginal missDomestic revenue grew 21% YoY while exports grew by 25%The growth was led by a healthy balance of pricing, volume and mix (around mid-single-digit volume growth)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Nestle India, Bajaj Auto, AU Small Finance Bank, Persistent Systems

<ul><li>Nestle India: Nestle’s 1QCY23 earnings surprised positively, led by strong revenue performance</li><li>However, the margin saw a marginal miss. Domestic revenue grew 21% YoY while exports grew by 25%</li><li>The growth was led by a healthy balance of pricing, volume and mix (around mid-single-digit volume growth)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nestle India: Nestle’s 1QCY23 earnings surprised positively, led by strong revenue performanceHowever, the margin saw a marginal miss. Domestic revenue grew 21% YoY while exports grew by 25%The growth was led by a healthy balance of pricing, volume and mix (around mid-single-digit volume growth)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily - Nestle India, Bajaj Auto, AU Small Finance Bank, Persistent Systems

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

AU Small Finance Bank Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Advances grew by 26/5% YoY/QoQ led by growth in home loans (+61/16% YoY/QoQ), Credit cards (+3.6x YoY), and business banking (+72/14% YoY/QoQ).</li><li>NII grew by 30/5% YoY/QoQ, driven by strong advances growth, and margins contracted by ~20/10bpsYoY/QoQ owing to higher CoF.</li><li>Opex growth remained elevated as the bank continues to invest in building the franchise.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Advances grew by 26/5% YoY/QoQ led by growth in home loans (+61/16% YoY/QoQ), Credit cards (+3.6x YoY), and business banking (+72/14% YoY/QoQ).NII grew by 30/5% YoY/QoQ, driven by strong advances growth, and margins contracted by ~20/10bpsYoY/QoQ owing to higher CoF.Opex growth remained elevated as the bank continues to invest in building the franchise.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AUBANK IN - Strong Levers for Fee Income Growth to Partially Offset Margin Pressures!

<ul><li>Given the RBI's recent pause in the policy rate cycle, we believe that the banking system, although largely resilient to the fallout from global banks, is faced with a combination of demand deceleration (lower growth), higher funding costs (lagged deposit re-pricing) and softer incremental spreads</li><li>As banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is not priced into valuations, especially of mid-sized, high-growth franchises</li><li>While we hold our below-consensus growth forecasts, we are now equally conservative on incremental spreads across our coverage universe.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Given the RBI's recent pause in the policy rate cycle, we believe that the banking system, although largely resilient to the fallout from global banks, is faced with a combination of demand deceleration (lower growth), higher funding costs (lagged deposit re-pricing) and softer incremental spreadsAs banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is not priced into valuations, especially of mid-sized, high-growth franchisesWhile we hold our below-consensus growth forecasts, we are now equally conservative on incremental spreads across our coverage universe.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Leveraged Financials: ‘Pause and Effect’ - interesting trade-offs ahead

India

AU Small Finance Bank Limited operates as a commercial bank. The Bank offers financial products and services such as savings and current accounts, term deposits, debit cards, insurance, government banking, retail loans, and microfinance lending. AU Small Finance Bank serves customers in India.

AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN)

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AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN)

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Nestle India, Bajaj Auto, AU Small Finance Bank, Persistent Systems

Nestle India: Nestle’s 1QCY23 earnings surprised positively, led by strong revenue performance. However, the margin saw a marginal miss

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily - Nestle India, Bajaj Auto, AU Small Finance Bank, Persistent Systems

Nestle India: Nestle’s 1QCY23 earnings surprised positively, led by strong revenue performance. However, the margin saw a marginal miss. Domestic...

HDFC Securities

AUBANK IN - Strong Levers for Fee Income Growth to Partially Offset Margin Pressures!

Advances grew by 26/5% YoY/QoQ led by growth in home loans (+61/16% YoY/QoQ), Credit cards (+3.6x YoY), and business banking (+72/14% YoY/QoQ).

Axis Direct

Leveraged Financials: ‘Pause and Effect’ - interesting trade-offs ahead

As banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is not priced into valuations

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)