Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Novatek had reported a flattish sales outlook in 1Q22, and all of revenue, GM and OPM were expected to NT$35.8~36.8bn, 48~51% and 34~37% respectively, while revenue was at -1.92~+0.82% QoQ. </li>
<li>We think the high inventory days of supply chain is giving a good chance to expand into China foundry for production, especially SMIC.</li>
<li>We think Novatek would maintain its solid dividend policy for EPS NT$63.87 in 2021, and it’s pay-out ratio is 80% in the past.</li>
</ul>


Novatek had reported a flattish sales outlook in 1Q22, and all of revenue, GM and OPM were expected to NT$35.8~36.8bn, 48~51% and 34~37% respectively, while revenue was at -1.92~+0.82% QoQ. 
We think the high inventory days of supply chain is giving a good chance to expand into China foundry for production, especially SMIC.
We think Novatek would maintain its solid dividend policy for EPS NT$63.87 in 2021, and it’s pay-out ratio is 80% in the past.


Novatek (3034.TT): A Good Year Ahead, and Likely to Expand to SMIC for Wafer Foundry

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.</li>
<li>As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.
As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.
Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.


Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Capital Securities Corp

Capital Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Capital Securities Corp

Capital Securities provides clients with investment services covering diversified financial products. We have outstanding business performance amid intense competition in the domestic securities market. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<p>Product price declines affect earnings but valuation appears fair; reiterate TRADING BUY . 3Q21 earnings remained relatively high compared to recent years:. As AUO’s valuation appears fair due to significant share price corrections previously, we maintain TRADING BUY.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Product price declines affect earnings but valuation appears fair; reiterate TRADING BUY . 3Q21 earnings remained relatively high compared to recent years:. As AUO’s valuation appears fair due to significant share price corrections previously, we maintain TRADING BUY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<p>Arrival of low season; high uncertainty over supply; maintain TRADING BUY . TV panel price started weakening in 1H of AUG21 and further declined MoM during AUG~OCT21. Additionally, monitor/NB panel prices started to fall in 2H of OCT21, sabotaging panel makers’ 4Q21 sales outlooks.. Nevertheless, considering the following: (a) panel market’s supply condition may face uncertainty over China’s reinforced policy of “dual control on energy consumption/intensity”; (b) AUO’s valuation appears fair due to significant correction of its share price previously, we maintain TRADING BUY on AUO. </p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Arrival of low season; high uncertainty over supply; maintain TRADING BUY . TV panel price started weakening in 1H of AUG21 and further declined MoM during AUG~OCT21. Additionally, monitor/NB panel prices started to fall in 2H of OCT21, sabotaging panel makers’ 4Q21 sales outlooks.. Nevertheless, considering the following: (a) panel market’s supply condition may face uncertainty over China’s reinforced policy of “dual control on energy consumption/intensity”; (b) AUO’s valuation appears fair due to significant correction of its share price previously, we maintain TRADING BUY on AUO. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
<strong>Our</strong> <strong>Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%</strong>.</li>
<li>
<strong>Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, </strong>15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.</li>
<li><strong>Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, </strong></li>
<li>
<strong>As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: </strong>Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.</li>
</ul>



Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.

Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.
Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, 

As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.


Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Taiwan

Jentech Precision Industrial Company Ltd. provides tooling, precision metal stamping, custom insert molding, injection molding, and assembly solutions for medical, consumer electronics, semiconductor, automotive, appliance, and micro electronic markets to a wide variety of industries.

Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board Corporation manufactures and markets printed circuit boards (PCBs) and integrated circuit (IC) substrates.

Innolux Corporation manufactures TFT-LCD, LCD models and LCD monitors. The company also provides research, development, manufacturing and retails business.

LOTES Co., Ltd specialize in design and manufacture of connectors, CPU Socket, Coolers and Antenna for Notebook Computer, Personal Computer, Mobile electronic device and Ditial Video.

Synnex Technology International Corporation markets personal computers, computer peripherals, multi-media products, network products, computer application software, electronic parts, and telecommunication products.

Synnex Technology International (2347 TT)

Chroma Ate Inc. manufactures and markets electronic and automation measuring instruments.  The Company's main products are test and measurement instruments, auto test equipment, power electronics, uninterrupted power supply (UPS), telecommunication power systems, industrial computers, and special materials.

Gold Circuit Electronics Ltd. manufactures and markets double-sided and multi-layer printed circuit boards.

Elite Material Co., Ltd manufactures and markets prepared laminated cover claddings for double-sided and multi-layer printed circuit boards.

Tripod Technology Corp. designs, manufactures, and markets double and multi layers printed circuit boards (PCBs). The Company also produces industrial automatic machinery as well as POS (Point of Sale) electronic cashiers.

WPG Holdings Ltd. distributes electronic components such as central processing units, memory integrated chips (ICs), application specific standard product (ASSP) ICs, logic and linear ICs, and discrete ICs. The Company distributes for Intel, Texas Instrument, Philips, Hynix, Vishay and other IC manufacturers.

Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co., Ltd. researches, manufactures and markets photoelectric parts. The key products are OLPF, IR Cut Filter, IR Filter Housing Assembly, Thermal Diffusion Panel and Cover Glass.

Huagong Tech Co., Ltd. manufactures laser equipment, laser false-proof products, sensitive electronic components, optical telecommunication products, and biopharmaceuticals.  The Company also develops computer software and provides computer system integration services.

Vishay Intertechnology, Inc. manufactures a broad line of passive and discreet active electronic components, particularly resistors, capacitors, inductors, diodes, and transistors.  The Company's products are utilized in computers, telephones, televisions, automobiles, household appliance, medical equipment, satellites, and military and aerospace equipment.

Shenzhen Sunlord Electronics Co.,Ltd. manufactures and markets chip passive components including chip inductor, chip ferrite bead, chip varistor, NTC thermistor and chip common mode choke coil.

Shenzhen Sunlord Electronics Co, Ltd. (002138 CH)

AAC Technologies Holdings Inc designs, develops and manufactures a broad range of miniaturized components that include speakers, receivers and microphones in the acoustic segment and others such as haptics vibrators, RF and antennas, and optical lenses. AAC's products are found in mobile devices such as smartphones, tablets, wearables, ultrabooks, notebooks and electronic book-readers.

LG Display Co., Ltd. develops and manufactures digital display products.  The Company's products include thin film transistor-liquid crystal displays (TFT-LCD) for notebook and desktop computer monitors, TVs, mobile phones, and medical equipment.  LG Display provides its products mainly to overseas markets.

IRICO Display Devices Co., Ltd. manufactures, and markets color television picture tubes.  The Company also provides technical services.

Universal Scientific Industrial (Shanghai) Company Limited develops, procures, manufactures, provides logistics and maintenance services. The Company's main product types include communications, computer and storage, consumer electronics, industrial, and other related types.

Universal Scientific Industrial (Shanghai) (601231 CH)

Universal Scientific Industrial (Shanghai)

Azbil Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets total automation equipment used in industrial and commercial buildings. The Company's products include sensors, switches, recording meters, security systems, air conditioners, pressure transmitters, and flow meters.

Sanmina Corporation provides electronics contract manufacturing services to customers located around the world. The Company offers its customers expertise in new product introduction, manufacturing, and design and fabrication of complex interconnect products. Sanmina Corporation specializes in circuit fabrication, system assembly, integration, and high-end enclosures and cabling.

AU Optronics Corp. manufactures and markets thin film transistor-liquid crystal displays (TFT-LCDs) and plasma display panels (PDPs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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AU Optronics (2409 TT)

Novatek (3034.TT): A Good Year Ahead, and Likely to Expand to SMIC for Wafer Foundry

In 1Q22, Novatek reported revenue, GM and OPM expected to NT$35.8~36.8bn, 48~51% and 34~37% respectively, which revenue was at -1.92~+0.82% QoQ. We...

Patrick Liao

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research

AUO (2409 TT, TRADING BUY, NTD20.55)

Product price declines affect earnings but valuation appears fair; reiterate TRADING BUY . 3Q21 earnings remained relatively high compared to...

Capital Securities

AUO (2409 TT, TRADING BUY, NTD19.00)

Arrival of low season; high uncertainty over supply; maintain TRADING BUY . TV panel price started weakening in 1H of AUG21 and further declined...

Capital Securities

Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

As we move through into Q1 2022, we expect to see volatility around highly priced & leveraged names. This screen is a key starting point towards...

David Lepper

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