Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Counting of consumption differs among different countries. Chinese definition of consumption (social retail sales) leave out many categories that are included in the definition of consumption of Japan and US;</li>
<li>If we trim the consumption of Japan and US by adopting China's definition, China actually <strong>over-consumes</strong>, both by GDP and by individual categories;</li>
<li>If we expand and align China, Japan and US to consist the same categories, the conclusion of China <strong>underconsumption</strong> becomes true. The categories belong to an older and wealthy society. </li>
</ul>


Counting of consumption differs among different countries. Chinese definition of consumption (social retail sales) leave out many categories that are included in the definition of consumption of Japan and US;
If we trim the consumption of Japan and US by adopting China's definition, China actually over-consumes, both by GDP and by individual categories;
If we expand and align China, Japan and US to consist the same categories, the conclusion of China underconsumption becomes true. The categories belong to an older and wealthy society. 


How to Stimulate China's Consumption? Part I

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>During the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival, both flight and railway traffic seems sluggish, indicating a cooled-down enthusiasm for long-distance trips due to budget constraints.</li>
<li>Data points to booming short-distance travel with self-driving as the major means, helped by lower price;</li>
<li>Benefiting from hotel booking and catering, Meituan is the biggest beneficiary of such consumption downgrade.</li>
</ul>


During the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival, both flight and railway traffic seems sluggish, indicating a cooled-down enthusiasm for long-distance trips due to budget constraints.
Data points to booming short-distance travel with self-driving as the major means, helped by lower price;
Benefiting from hotel booking and catering, Meituan is the biggest beneficiary of such consumption downgrade.


Meituan Is the Biggest Beneficiary of China's Domestic Travel Recovery

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Q124 showed solid top-line growth, impressive improvement in core margins</li>
<li>We are not too concerned about moderating domestic hotel, air pricing</li>
<li>After consensus EPS raised, TCOM a BUY below US$50 per ADS, in our view</li>
</ul>


Q124 showed solid top-line growth, impressive improvement in core margins
We are not too concerned about moderating domestic hotel, air pricing
After consensus EPS raised, TCOM a BUY below US$50 per ADS, in our view


Trip.com Q124 Review: Solid Top-Line Growth | Progress on Margins | BUY Below US$50

<ul>
<li>Chinese outbound travel demand continued its gradual recovery in April </li>
<li>Moderating domestic demand? It's not new, and outbound matters more </li>
<li>On a pullback to below US$50, we would again BUY Trip.com's ADRs</li>
</ul>


Chinese outbound travel demand continued its gradual recovery in April 
Moderating domestic demand? It's not new, and outbound matters more 
On a pullback to below US$50, we would again BUY Trip.com's ADRs


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Grinds Forward | Domestic Weakness Not New | (May 2024)

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>PDD US/SHEIN/AMZN US: Temu opens up platform to brand merchants (+/-/-)</li>
<li>TCOM US/3690 HK/ATAT US  :  Visa-free policy for 12 countries including France extended until December 31, 2025.(+/+/+)</li>
<li>700 HK: After the release of new limited skins for &lt;League of Legends: Wild Rift&gt;, there has been a noticeable rebound in grossing rankings.(+)</li>
</ul>


PDD US/SHEIN/AMZN US: Temu opens up platform to brand merchants (+/-/-)
TCOM US/3690 HK/ATAT US  :  Visa-free policy for 12 countries including France extended until December 31, 2025.(+/+/+)
700 HK: After the release of new limited skins for &lt;League of Legends: Wild Rift&gt;, there has been a noticeable rebound in grossing rankings.(+)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:PDD US/SHEIN/AMZN US/TCOM US/3690 HK/ ATAT US/700 HK

China

Xinhu Zhongbao Co., Ltd. provides development and sale of residential properties.  The Company operates in import and export trading, hotel management, and construction materials manufacturing.

Chengdu Hi-tech Development Co., Ltd. develops and sells real estate properties.  The Company also designs and produces kitchen cabinets, produces pharmaceuticals, and develops taxation software.

Chengdu Hi Tech Development Co Ltd. (000628 CH)

Greentown China Holdings Ltd. develops real estate.  The Company builds residential villas, low-rise apartment buildings, and high-rise apartment buildings for middle and high-income people.

Shanghai Chinafortune Co Ltd manufactures and markets electrical products and instruments, including electric meters, printed circuit boards, and electric motors. The Company, through its subsidiaries, also operates in network engineering, taxi services, import/export trading, and property management.

Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co., Ltd. operates in land development, property management, and infrastructure facilities construction within the Lujiazui Finance and Trade Zone.  The Company also undertakes building and renovation projects.

Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone (600663 CH)

Gemdale Corporation develops residential buildings and operates in property rental and management. The Company also invests in commercial trading businesses.

China Overseas Property Holdings Limited operates as a property management firm. The Company manages residential communities, commercial properties and government properties in Hong Kong and Macau.

Country Garden Services Holdings Company Limited provides real estate development services. The Company develops residential apartments, multi-functional complex buildings, government and public facilities, industrial parks, highway service stations, and schools. Country Garden Services Holdings serves clients in China.

Poly Property Services Co., Ltd. provides property services. The Company offers property management, property projects pre-consultation, post-delivery evaluation and analysis, professional equipment and facilities maintenance, housekeeping, and other services. Poly Property Services provides services in China.

Hainan Haide Industry Co., Ltd. develops residential properties and operates a hotel.

Asset World Corp Public Company Limited focuses on real estate development and investment services. The Company offers property management. Asset World Corp serves customers in Thailand.

WHA Corp PCL is a built-to-suit distribution center and factory developer in Thailand.

Land and Houses Public Company Limited develops real estate projects including single-detached homes, townhouses, and condominiums. The Company builds single and attached homes, primarily on land that it develops and improves. Land and Houses also operates its own architectural, engineering, design and construction teams for customer's specific designs and orders.

Japan Prime Realty Investment Corporation is a real estate investment trust (REIT) which mainly invests in office buildings and commercial-use facilities nationwide.

Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. is a fully integrated and self-managed real estate investment trust ("REIT").  The Company specializes in the acquisition, ownership and management of necessity-based community, and neighborhood shopping centers in the western and eastern regions of the United States anchored by national and regional supermarkets and drugstores.

Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. (ROIC US)

Industrial & Infrastructure Fund Investment Corporation is a a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company invests in real estate properties such as facilities for industry and infrastructure institution.

Industrial & Infrastructure Fund Investment (3249 JP)

Industrial & Infrastructure Fund Investment

Nippon Accommodations Fund Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT), which invests in income producing properties.  The Company invests in residential buildings.

SPH REIT is a Singapore-based REIT established principally to invest, directly or indirectly, in a portfolio of income-producing real estate which is used primarily for retail purposes in Asia-Pacific, as well as real estate-related assets.

Equity Commonwealth is a real estate investment trust, or REIT. The Company primarily owns office buildings located in Central Business District and suburban areas of major metropolitan markets in the United States, and has a large concentration of properties leased to the U.S. Government and medical related tenants. Equity CommonWealth also owns industrial lands in Hawaii.

Getty Realty Corporation owns and leases properties in the Northeastern and Middle Atlantic states. These properties, consisting of service stations, convenience stores and petroleum marketing terminals are leased to Getty Petroleum Marketing Inc. Getty Realty Holding is also a marketer of heating oil in Pennsylvania and Maryland.

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and manages midscale hotel chain through offline and online channels, including mobile application and weixin-wechat mini program. Atour Lifestyle Holdings serves customers in China.

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Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US)

How to Stimulate China's Consumption? Part I

The myth of China underconsumption depends on how you count it. China under-consumes in certain consumption categories associated with an older and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Meituan Is the Biggest Beneficiary of China's Domestic Travel Recovery

Consumer enthusiasm for long-distance trips during the Dragon Boat Festival has cooled. Short-distance tours are popular, benefiting low-cost...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com Q124 Review: Solid Top-Line Growth | Progress on Margins | BUY Below US$50

Trip.com's Q124 earnings results showed solid top-ine growth and strong core margin improvement. We believe the company's ADSs are attractive below...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Grinds Forward | Domestic Weakness Not New | (May 2024)

Outbound Chinese travel demand continued its recovery in April. Chinese travel-linked shares have pulled back over concerns about hotel and air...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:PDD US/SHEIN/AMZN US/TCOM US/3690 HK/ ATAT US/700 HK

Temu allows brand merchants on platform, visa-free policy extended for 12 countries, limited skins boost grossing rankings for League of Legends:...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

How to Stimulate China's Consumption? Part I

The myth of China underconsumption depends on how you count it. China under-consumes in certain consumption categories associated with an older and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Meituan Is the Biggest Beneficiary of China's Domestic Travel Recovery

​Consumer enthusiasm for long-distance trips during the Dragon Boat Festival has cooled. Short-distance tours are popular, benefiting low-cost...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com Q124 Review: Solid Top-Line Growth | Progress on Margins | BUY Below US$50

Trip.com's Q124 earnings results showed solid top-ine growth and strong core margin improvement. We believe the company's ADSs are attractive below...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Grinds Forward | Domestic Weakness Not New | (May 2024)

Outbound Chinese travel demand continued its recovery in April. Chinese travel-linked shares have pulled back over concerns about hotel and air...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:PDD US/SHEIN/AMZN US/TCOM US/3690 HK/ ATAT US/700 HK

​Temu allows brand merchants on platform, visa-free policy extended for 12 countries, limited skins boost grossing rankings for League of Legends:...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Consumer enthusiasm for long-distance trips during the Dragon Boat Festival has cooled. Short-distance tours are popular, benefiting low-cost...

Temu allows brand merchants on platform, visa-free policy extended for 12 countries, limited skins boost grossing rankings for League of Legends:...