Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>CPNG/BABA/PDD : Coupang sacrifices profitability for growth in 3Q23 (-/+/+)</li>
<li>LI/XPEV/NIO/TLSA1211.HK: Tesla raises prices for Model 3 + Model Y on November 9th (+)</li>
<li>ZLAB: ZLAB's Q3 revenue slightly lower than our estimates, R&amp;D compressed profits</li>
</ul>


CPNG/BABA/PDD : Coupang sacrifices profitability for growth in 3Q23 (-/+/+)
LI/XPEV/NIO/TLSA1211.HK: Tesla raises prices for Model 3 + Model Y on November 9th (+)
ZLAB: ZLAB's Q3 revenue slightly lower than our estimates, R&amp;D compressed profits


[Blue Lotus Daily]: LI/XPEV/NIO/TSLA/ATAT/HTHT/ZLAB/ACMR/CPNG/BABA/PDD/BEKE

<ul>
<li>China hotel supply shortage haven’t fully recovered from Covid, the total hotel volume is still 11% lower than pre-Covid level in 2023, we expect a full recovery in 2024.</li>
<li>Due to the continue of hotel supply shortage, we think hotel groups in China can still enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months.</li>
<li>We think Atour has better fundamentals than Huazhu/Jinjiang/BTG, in terms of 1) hotel room scale leverage; 2) RevPAR quality; 3) upper midscale class positioning and less burden in legacy brands.</li>
</ul>


China hotel supply shortage haven’t fully recovered from Covid, the total hotel volume is still 11% lower than pre-Covid level in 2023, we expect a full recovery in 2024.
Due to the continue of hotel supply shortage, we think hotel groups in China can still enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months.
We think Atour has better fundamentals than Huazhu/Jinjiang/BTG, in terms of 1) hotel room scale leverage; 2) RevPAR quality; 3) upper midscale class positioning and less burden in legacy brands.


[Blue Lotus Lodging Sector Update]: Dividend from Supply Shortage Can Continue into 2024

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>September outbound tourism metrics plummeted, in some cases to levels seen in Q223</li>
<li>Domestic air travel demand also fell vs August; normal seasonal patterns are dominating</li>
<li>As recovery fizzles, travel shares languish, and we see few reasons for optimism, near-term</li>
</ul>


September outbound tourism metrics plummeted, in some cases to levels seen in Q223
Domestic air travel demand also fell vs August; normal seasonal patterns are dominating
As recovery fizzles, travel shares languish, and we see few reasons for optimism, near-term


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Tourism Recovery Derailed By Normal Seasonality | (October 2023)

<ul>
<li>Outbound daily traffic during the long holiday down -15% vs 2019, and short of expectations</li>
<li>Total domestic trips up 4% vs 2019, but average daily trips -9% &amp; average daily spending -4%</li>
<li>Ten months in, the pace of China's 2023 tourism recovery remains disappointingly sluggish</li>
</ul>


Outbound daily traffic during the long holiday down -15% vs 2019, and short of expectations
Total domestic trips up 4% vs 2019, but average daily trips -9% &amp; average daily spending -4%
Ten months in, the pace of China's 2023 tourism recovery remains disappointingly sluggish


Quick Take on 'Golden Week' Headline Tourism Traffic: Limited Improvement, & Shy of Expectations

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

<ul>
<li>TSLA/JD：JD.com will launch Tesla car ordering service ( + )</li>
<li>JD：JD.com launches "Enjoy now, pay later" service, with high barriers and limited impact (/)</li>
<li>ATAT/TCOM: Highway traffic during national holiday will reach historicalhigh（ +）</li>
</ul>


TSLA/JD：JD.com will launch Tesla car ordering service ( + )
JD：JD.com launches "Enjoy now, pay later" service, with high barriers and limited impact (/)
ATAT/TCOM: Highway traffic during national holiday will reach historicalhigh（ +）


China TMT Update(Oct.8)-TSLA/JD/ATAT/TCOM/3690.HK-JD.com Launches "Enjoy Now, Pay Later" Service

China

Xinhu Zhongbao Co., Ltd. provides development and sale of residential properties.  The Company operates in import and export trading, hotel management, and construction materials manufacturing.

Chengdu Hi-tech Development Co., Ltd. develops and sells real estate properties.  The Company also designs and produces kitchen cabinets, produces pharmaceuticals, and develops taxation software.

Chengdu Hi Tech Development Co Ltd. (000628 CH)

Greentown China Holdings Ltd. develops real estate.  The Company builds residential villas, low-rise apartment buildings, and high-rise apartment buildings for middle and high-income people.

Shanghai Chinafortune Co Ltd manufactures and markets electrical products and instruments, including electric meters, printed circuit boards, and electric motors. The Company, through its subsidiaries, also operates in network engineering, taxi services, import/export trading, and property management.

Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co., Ltd. operates in land development, property management, and infrastructure facilities construction within the Lujiazui Finance and Trade Zone.  The Company also undertakes building and renovation projects.

Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone (600663 CH)

Gemdale Corporation develops residential buildings and operates in property rental and management. The Company also invests in commercial trading businesses.

China Overseas Property Holdings Limited operates as a property management firm. The Company manages residential communities, commercial properties and government properties in Hong Kong and Macau.

Country Garden Services Holdings Company Limited provides real estate development services. The Company develops residential apartments, multi-functional complex buildings, government and public facilities, industrial parks, highway service stations, and schools. Country Garden Services Holdings serves clients in China.

Poly Property Services Co., Ltd. provides property services. The Company offers property management, property projects pre-consultation, post-delivery evaluation and analysis, professional equipment and facilities maintenance, housekeeping, and other services. Poly Property Services provides services in China.

Hainan Haide Industry Co., Ltd. develops residential properties and operates a hotel.

Asset World Corp Public Company Limited focuses on real estate development and investment services. The Company offers property management. Asset World Corp serves customers in Thailand.

WHA Corp PCL is a built-to-suit distribution center and factory developer in Thailand.

Land and Houses Public Company Limited develops real estate projects including single-detached homes, townhouses, and condominiums. The Company builds single and attached homes, primarily on land that it develops and improves. Land and Houses also operates its own architectural, engineering, design and construction teams for customer's specific designs and orders.

Japan Prime Realty Investment Corporation is a real estate investment trust (REIT) which mainly invests in office buildings and commercial-use facilities nationwide.

Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. is a fully integrated and self-managed real estate investment trust ("REIT").  The Company specializes in the acquisition, ownership and management of necessity-based community, and neighborhood shopping centers in the western and eastern regions of the United States anchored by national and regional supermarkets and drugstores.

Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. (ROIC US)

Industrial & Infrastructure Fund Investment Corporation is a a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company invests in real estate properties such as facilities for industry and infrastructure institution.

Industrial & Infrastructure Fund Investment (3249 JP)

Industrial & Infrastructure Fund Investment

Nippon Accommodations Fund Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT), which invests in income producing properties.  The Company invests in residential buildings.

SPH REIT is a Singapore-based REIT established principally to invest, directly or indirectly, in a portfolio of income-producing real estate which is used primarily for retail purposes in Asia-Pacific, as well as real estate-related assets.

Equity Commonwealth is a real estate investment trust, or REIT. The Company primarily owns office buildings located in Central Business District and suburban areas of major metropolitan markets in the United States, and has a large concentration of properties leased to the U.S. Government and medical related tenants. Equity CommonWealth also owns industrial lands in Hawaii.

Getty Realty Corporation owns and leases properties in the Northeastern and Middle Atlantic states. These properties, consisting of service stations, convenience stores and petroleum marketing terminals are leased to Getty Petroleum Marketing Inc. Getty Realty Holding is also a marketer of heating oil in Pennsylvania and Maryland.

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and manages midscale hotel chain through offline and online channels, including mobile application and weixin-wechat mini program. Atour Lifestyle Holdings serves customers in China.

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Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US)

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LI/XPEV/NIO/TSLA/ATAT/HTHT/ZLAB/ACMR/CPNG/BABA/PDD/BEKE

Coupang prioritizes growth over profitability, Tesla increases prices for Model 3 and Model Y, ZLAB's Q3 revenue falls short of estimates.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Lodging Sector Update]: Dividend from Supply Shortage Can Continue into 2024

China hotels can continue to enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months, thanks to supply shortage in reopening. Atour (ATAT) looks...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Tourism Recovery Derailed By Normal Seasonality | (October 2023)

Outbound tourism activity in September declined vs August, in some cases down to levels seen in Q2. Domestic activity also disappointed, and we see...

Tracking Traffic

Quick Take on 'Golden Week' Headline Tourism Traffic: Limited Improvement, & Shy of Expectations

Preliminary tourism activity data from the long Golden Week holiday period appear to show a frustratingly sluggish recovery in Chinese travel demand.

Tracking Traffic

China TMT Update(Oct.8)-TSLA/JD/ATAT/TCOM/3690.HK-JD.com Launches "Enjoy Now, Pay Later" Service

JD.com will launch Tesla car ordering service; JD.com launches "Enjoy now, pay later" service, with high barriers and limited impact; Highway...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LI/XPEV/NIO/TSLA/ATAT/HTHT/ZLAB/ACMR/CPNG/BABA/PDD/BEKE

​Coupang prioritizes growth over profitability, Tesla increases prices for Model 3 and Model Y, ZLAB's Q3 revenue falls short of estimates.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Lodging Sector Update]: Dividend from Supply Shortage Can Continue into 2024

China hotels can continue to enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months, thanks to supply shortage in reopening. Atour (ATAT) looks...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Tourism Recovery Derailed By Normal Seasonality | (October 2023)

Outbound tourism activity in September declined vs August, in some cases down to levels seen in Q2. Domestic activity also disappointed, and we see...

Tracking Traffic

Quick Take on 'Golden Week' Headline Tourism Traffic: Limited Improvement, & Shy of Expectations

Preliminary tourism activity data from the long Golden Week holiday period appear to show a frustratingly sluggish recovery in Chinese travel demand.

Tracking Traffic

China TMT Update(Oct.8)-TSLA/JD/ATAT/TCOM/3690.HK-JD.com Launches "Enjoy Now, Pay Later" Service

JD.com will launch Tesla car ordering service; JD.com launches "Enjoy now, pay later" service, with high barriers and limited impact; Highway...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Coupang prioritizes growth over profitability, Tesla increases prices for Model 3 and Model Y, ZLAB's Q3 revenue falls short of estimates.