Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chinese outbound and domestic air traffic activity improved sharply Y/Y in the January-February LNY travel period, but activity remains far below pre-Covid levels</li>
<li>Given constrained outbound air capacity, we're surprised to see relatively low (65-66%) passenger load factors reported by the leading Chinese airlines during LNY</li>
<li>If planes don't begin to fill up with Chinese tourists soon, we believe some investors may become disappointed in the pace of China's travel recovery </li>
</ul>


Chinese outbound and domestic air traffic activity improved sharply Y/Y in the January-February LNY travel period, but activity remains far below pre-Covid levels
Given constrained outbound air capacity, we're surprised to see relatively low (65-66%) passenger load factors reported by the leading Chinese airlines during LNY
If planes don't begin to fill up with Chinese tourists soon, we believe some investors may become disappointed in the pace of China's travel recovery 


TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: LNY Traffic Points to Slow Recovery in 2023

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BEKE US: Government cut property transaction related taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% of transaction costs per unit(+)</li>
<li>1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: EV deliveries in the 45th week of 2024, Xiaomi rebounds, Tesla is strong, NIO and Xpeng are weak （///////////）</li>
<li>ATAT US: Atour Pillow's Double 11 Sales Exceed Expectations, Reaching RMB520mn（+）</li>
</ul>


BEKE US: Government cut property transaction related taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% of transaction costs per unit(+)
1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: EV deliveries in the 45th week of 2024, Xiaomi rebounds, Tesla is strong, NIO and Xpeng are weak （///////////）
ATAT US: Atour Pillow's Double 11 Sales Exceed Expectations, Reaching RMB520mn（+）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/ATAT US/BIDU US

<ul>
<li>While Trump's sweeping wins in presidential, senate and house, and supreme court earlier gave him unprecedented mandate to reform the US economy, his agenda is unrealistic to begin with; </li>
<li>ADS/Electrification, GAI/renewable/employment, (3) inflation/trade/ immigration are just three that the Trump Administration will likely backpedal.  Execution of Trump's economic agenda requires perfect coordination which is tough to pull off</li>
<li>For a short term trade, we recommend PDD and BYD. We also like Xiaomi. Consumption stocks can benefit from stimulus package from the Chinese government.</li>
</ul>


While Trump's sweeping wins in presidential, senate and house, and supreme court earlier gave him unprecedented mandate to reform the US economy, his agenda is unrealistic to begin with; 
ADS/Electrification, GAI/renewable/employment, (3) inflation/trade/ immigration are just three that the Trump Administration will likely backpedal.  Execution of Trump's economic agenda requires perfect coordination which is tough to pull off
For a short term trade, we recommend PDD and BYD. We also like Xiaomi. Consumption stocks can benefit from stimulus package from the Chinese government.


What Trump Can and Cannot Accomplish in His 2nd Term

<ul>
<li>1211 HK/XPEV US:Shanghai Further Offers Car Trade-in Subsidies . (+)</li>
<li>ATAT US: China hotel industry remains lukewarm in 3Q24 (-)</li>
<li>ATAT US:Hotel bookings in Shanghai during the CIIE increase by 80% year-on-year (+)</li>
</ul>


1211 HK/XPEV US:Shanghai Further Offers Car Trade-in Subsidies . (+)
ATAT US: China hotel industry remains lukewarm in 3Q24 (-)
ATAT US:Hotel bookings in Shanghai during the CIIE increase by 80% year-on-year (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/XPEV US/ATAT US/ZTO US/BABA US/Real Estate News Update/Consumer Sector

<ul>
<li>September's growth in activity still solid for domestic &amp; international traffic</li>
<li>Golden Week anecdotes suggests Chinese tourists remain active, but frugal</li>
<li>Trip.com has shown stellar YTD performance, but airlines offer more upside</li>
</ul>


September's growth in activity still solid for domestic &amp; international traffic
Golden Week anecdotes suggests Chinese tourists remain active, but frugal
Trip.com has shown stellar YTD performance, but airlines offer more upside


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Still-Solid Growth in September | Consider Airlines (October 2024)

China

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and manages midscale hotel chain through offline and online channels, including mobile application and weixin-wechat mini program. Atour Lifestyle Holdings serves customers in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US)

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: LNY Traffic Points to Slow Recovery in 2023

Jan-Feb air traffic shows the beginnings of a recovery in Chinese travel activity, but we're surprised to see outbound flights with load factors of...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/ATAT US/BIDU US

Government in BEKE US cuts property transaction taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% per unit; EV deliveries mixed in 45th week, Atour Pillow's Double 11 sales...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

What Trump Can and Cannot Accomplish in His 2nd Term

Trump's ambitious economic agenda faces challenges and backpedaling. We see energy electrification, GAI power demand and inflation/immigration...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/XPEV US/ATAT US/ZTO US/BABA US/Real Estate News Update/Consumer Sector

Shanghai offers car trade-in subsidies, China hotel industry lukewarm in 3Q24, but hotel bookings in Shanghai during CIIE surge by 80% year-on-year.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Still-Solid Growth in September | Consider Airlines (October 2024)

Chinese domestic and outbound air travel continued to show solid growth in September and Q3. The airlines have managed capacity restoration well...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: LNY Traffic Points to Slow Recovery in 2023

Jan-Feb air traffic shows the beginnings of a recovery in Chinese travel activity, but we're surprised to see outbound flights with load factors of...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/ATAT US/BIDU US

​Government in BEKE US cuts property transaction taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% per unit; EV deliveries mixed in 45th week, Atour Pillow's Double 11 sales...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

What Trump Can and Cannot Accomplish in His 2nd Term

​Trump's ambitious economic agenda faces challenges and backpedaling. We see energy electrification, GAI power demand and inflation/immigration...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/XPEV US/ATAT US/ZTO US/BABA US/Real Estate News Update/Consumer Sector

​Shanghai offers car trade-in subsidies, China hotel industry lukewarm in 3Q24, but hotel bookings in Shanghai during CIIE surge by 80% year-on-year.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Still-Solid Growth in September | Consider Airlines (October 2024)

Chinese domestic and outbound air travel continued to show solid growth in September and Q3. The airlines have managed capacity restoration well...

Tracking Traffic

Government in BEKE US cuts property transaction taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% per unit; EV deliveries mixed in 45th week, Atour Pillow's Double 11 sales...

Trump's ambitious economic agenda faces challenges and backpedaling. We see energy electrification, GAI power demand and inflation/immigration...

Shanghai offers car trade-in subsidies, China hotel industry lukewarm in 3Q24, but hotel bookings in Shanghai during CIIE surge by 80% year-on-year.