Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Atour Lifestyle Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Atour reported 3Q23 revenue 6.4%/17.1% higher than our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI 5.5%/9.1% higher than our estimate/consensus.</li>
<li>We expect Atour 4Q23/2023 RevPAR recovered to 107%/114% of 2019 level, and revenue to increase 104%/96% YoY respectively. </li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY rating, and raised TP by US$1 to US$37.5, reflecting the rapid growth of retail product sales. </li>
</ul>


Atour reported 3Q23 revenue 6.4%/17.1% higher than our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI 5.5%/9.1% higher than our estimate/consensus.
We expect Atour 4Q23/2023 RevPAR recovered to 107%/114% of 2019 level, and revenue to increase 104%/96% YoY respectively. 
We maintain the stock as BUY rating, and raised TP by US$1 to US$37.5, reflecting the rapid growth of retail product sales. 


[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37.5) Target Price Change]: Brand Value Brings Premium Sales

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ATAT: Atour Group launches new version of Atour 4.0, higher price with better return(+)</li>
<li>XPEV/NIO/LI:  Huawei Chery Luxeed announce specs and pricing, impacting mostly high end sedans (-)</li>
<li>981.HK/ 1347.HK/ ACMR: China lithography supplier planning A-share listing (+)</li>
</ul>


ATAT: Atour Group launches new version of Atour 4.0, higher price with better return(+)
XPEV/NIO/LI:  Huawei Chery Luxeed announce specs and pricing, impacting mostly high end sedans (-)
981.HK/ 1347.HK/ ACMR: China lithography supplier planning A-share listing (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily] Xiaomi 1810.HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/1211.HK/ATAT/BEKE/LKNCY/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR

<ul>
<li>CPNG/BABA/PDD : Coupang sacrifices profitability for growth in 3Q23 (-/+/+)</li>
<li>LI/XPEV/NIO/TLSA1211.HK: Tesla raises prices for Model 3 + Model Y on November 9th (+)</li>
<li>ZLAB: ZLAB's Q3 revenue slightly lower than our estimates, R&amp;D compressed profits</li>
</ul>


CPNG/BABA/PDD : Coupang sacrifices profitability for growth in 3Q23 (-/+/+)
LI/XPEV/NIO/TLSA1211.HK: Tesla raises prices for Model 3 + Model Y on November 9th (+)
ZLAB: ZLAB's Q3 revenue slightly lower than our estimates, R&amp;D compressed profits


[Blue Lotus Daily]: LI/XPEV/NIO/TSLA/ATAT/HTHT/ZLAB/ACMR/CPNG/BABA/PDD/BEKE

<ul>
<li>China hotel supply shortage haven’t fully recovered from Covid, the total hotel volume is still 11% lower than pre-Covid level in 2023, we expect a full recovery in 2024.</li>
<li>Due to the continue of hotel supply shortage, we think hotel groups in China can still enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months.</li>
<li>We think Atour has better fundamentals than Huazhu/Jinjiang/BTG, in terms of 1) hotel room scale leverage; 2) RevPAR quality; 3) upper midscale class positioning and less burden in legacy brands.</li>
</ul>


China hotel supply shortage haven’t fully recovered from Covid, the total hotel volume is still 11% lower than pre-Covid level in 2023, we expect a full recovery in 2024.
Due to the continue of hotel supply shortage, we think hotel groups in China can still enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months.
We think Atour has better fundamentals than Huazhu/Jinjiang/BTG, in terms of 1) hotel room scale leverage; 2) RevPAR quality; 3) upper midscale class positioning and less burden in legacy brands.


[Blue Lotus Lodging Sector Update]: Dividend from Supply Shortage Can Continue into 2024

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>September outbound tourism metrics plummeted, in some cases to levels seen in Q223</li>
<li>Domestic air travel demand also fell vs August; normal seasonal patterns are dominating</li>
<li>As recovery fizzles, travel shares languish, and we see few reasons for optimism, near-term</li>
</ul>


September outbound tourism metrics plummeted, in some cases to levels seen in Q223
Domestic air travel demand also fell vs August; normal seasonal patterns are dominating
As recovery fizzles, travel shares languish, and we see few reasons for optimism, near-term


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Tourism Recovery Derailed By Normal Seasonality | (October 2023)

China

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and manages midscale hotel chain through offline and online channels, including mobile application and weixin-wechat mini program. Atour Lifestyle Holdings serves customers in China.

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Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US)

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37.5) Target Price Change]: Brand Value Brings Premium Sales

Atour's 3Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI exceeded estimates, and we predict strong recovery in RevPAR and revenue for 4Q23 and 2023. We maintain a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily] Xiaomi 1810.HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/1211.HK/ATAT/BEKE/LKNCY/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR

Atour Group releases Atour 4.0 with improved features. Huawei Chery Luxeed's specs and pricing announcement affects high-end sedans negatively....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LI/XPEV/NIO/TSLA/ATAT/HTHT/ZLAB/ACMR/CPNG/BABA/PDD/BEKE

Coupang prioritizes growth over profitability, Tesla increases prices for Model 3 and Model Y, ZLAB's Q3 revenue falls short of estimates.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Lodging Sector Update]: Dividend from Supply Shortage Can Continue into 2024

China hotels can continue to enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months, thanks to supply shortage in reopening. Atour (ATAT) looks...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Tourism Recovery Derailed By Normal Seasonality | (October 2023)

Outbound tourism activity in September declined vs August, in some cases down to levels seen in Q2. Domestic activity also disappointed, and we see...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37.5) Target Price Change]: Brand Value Brings Premium Sales

Atour's 3Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI exceeded estimates, and we predict strong recovery in RevPAR and revenue for 4Q23 and 2023. We maintain a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily] Xiaomi 1810.HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/1211.HK/ATAT/BEKE/LKNCY/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR

​Atour Group releases Atour 4.0 with improved features. Huawei Chery Luxeed's specs and pricing announcement affects high-end sedans negatively....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LI/XPEV/NIO/TSLA/ATAT/HTHT/ZLAB/ACMR/CPNG/BABA/PDD/BEKE

​Coupang prioritizes growth over profitability, Tesla increases prices for Model 3 and Model Y, ZLAB's Q3 revenue falls short of estimates.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Lodging Sector Update]: Dividend from Supply Shortage Can Continue into 2024

China hotels can continue to enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months, thanks to supply shortage in reopening. Atour (ATAT) looks...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Tourism Recovery Derailed By Normal Seasonality | (October 2023)

Outbound tourism activity in September declined vs August, in some cases down to levels seen in Q2. Domestic activity also disappointed, and we see...

Tracking Traffic

Atour Group releases Atour 4.0 with improved features. Huawei Chery Luxeed's specs and pricing announcement affects high-end sedans negatively....

Coupang prioritizes growth over profitability, Tesla increases prices for Model 3 and Model Y, ZLAB's Q3 revenue falls short of estimates.