Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Atour Lifestyle Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Atour (ATAT) reported C3Q24 revenue 2.3% lower than our estimate but 4.8% higher than consensus. The net income beat our estimate/consensus by 6.6%/9.5%, thanks to disciplined cost controls.</li>
<li>Although RevPAR weakened in C3Q24 as expected, turnaround is coming already in C4Q24. We also expect moderate RevPAR growth in 2025.</li>
<li>We keep the TP at US$37/ADS and maintain a TOP BUY on Atour.</li>
</ul>


Atour (ATAT) reported C3Q24 revenue 2.3% lower than our estimate but 4.8% higher than consensus. The net income beat our estimate/consensus by 6.6%/9.5%, thanks to disciplined cost controls.
Although RevPAR weakened in C3Q24 as expected, turnaround is coming already in C4Q24. We also expect moderate RevPAR growth in 2025.
We keep the TP at US$37/ADS and maintain a TOP BUY on Atour.


[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) Review]: Small Differences Here & There but Overall Case Intact

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>The hotel sector continues to be under pressure in 4Q24E as weakness is seen during the post-National Day holidays period, and this may have explained management’s prudent guidance of hotel RevPAR in FY24E.</li><li>However, supported by accelerated store expansion, better-than-expected hotel supply chain sales and robust retail business, we are still optimistic about FY25E.</li><li>Maintain BUY and raise TP to US$ 32.01, based on 18x FY25E P/E (rolled over from 23x FY24E P/E), vs current valuation of 15x FY25E P/E.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The hotel sector continues to be under pressure in 4Q24E as weakness is seen during the post-National Day holidays period, and this may have explained management’s prudent guidance of hotel RevPAR in FY24E.However, supported by accelerated store expansion, better-than-expected hotel supply chain sales and robust retail business, we are still optimistic about FY25E.Maintain BUY and raise TP to US$ 32.01, based on 18x FY25E P/E (rolled over from 23x FY24E P/E), vs current valuation of 15x FY25E P/E.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) - Prudent RevPAR Outlook Offset by Other Initiatives

<ul>
<li>Based on Atour (ATAT)'s strong pillow sales in 11.11, we raised C4Q24/2025 revenue estimate by 6.9%/7.1%. Our number is now 7.9%/15% higher than consensus;</li>
<li>The outstanding performance of the retail business may draw more consumer attention to the brand, thus bring contribute to Atour's hotel expansion.</li>
<li>We raise the TP by US$1 to US$37/ADS and maintain the BUY rating.</li>
</ul>


Based on Atour (ATAT)'s strong pillow sales in 11.11, we raised C4Q24/2025 revenue estimate by 6.9%/7.1%. Our number is now 7.9%/15% higher than consensus;
The outstanding performance of the retail business may draw more consumer attention to the brand, thus bring contribute to Atour's hotel expansion.
We raise the TP by US$1 to US$37/ADS and maintain the BUY rating.


[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) TP Change]: Strong 11.11 Sales Recalibrate E-Commerce Potential

<ul>
<li>Atour (ATAT) reported C2Q24 revenue 2.2%/8.3% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP NI 6.8%/12.3% higher than our est./ cons, driven by stronger hotel supply chain sales and better retail efficiency.</li>
<li>We keep 2024 revenue growth estimate at 53% YoY vs. the uplift company guidance at 48%-52% YoY. Potential catalysts are stronger off-season travel,old hotel renovation scheme, and new brand launch.</li>
<li>We keep TP unchanged at US$36/ADS and maintain the BUY rating.</li>
</ul>


Atour (ATAT) reported C2Q24 revenue 2.2%/8.3% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP NI 6.8%/12.3% higher than our est./ cons, driven by stronger hotel supply chain sales and better retail efficiency.
We keep 2024 revenue growth estimate at 53% YoY vs. the uplift company guidance at 48%-52% YoY. Potential catalysts are stronger off-season travel,old hotel renovation scheme, and new brand launch.
We keep TP unchanged at US$36/ADS and maintain the BUY rating.


[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$36) Review]: Retail Business Bigger and Longer than Market Thinks

<ul><li>The hotel sector continues to be under pressure in 3Q24E and we are still cautious about a potential improvement in 4Q24E.</li><li>However, Atour’s retail sales business and better-than-expected sales of hotel supplies can still more than offset the drags from its hotel segment.</li><li>Moreover, the new dividend payout policy is a big positive surprise and could raise its FY24E yield to around 3% to 4%. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The hotel sector continues to be under pressure in 3Q24E and we are still cautious about a potential improvement in 4Q24E.However, Atour’s retail sales business and better-than-expected sales of hotel supplies can still more than offset the drags from its hotel segment.Moreover, the new dividend payout policy is a big positive surprise and could raise its FY24E yield to around 3% to 4%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) - Guidance Raised Again Plus Massive Dividends

China

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and manages midscale hotel chain through offline and online channels, including mobile application and weixin-wechat mini program. Atour Lifestyle Holdings serves customers in China.

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Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US)

[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) Review]: Small Differences Here & There but Overall Case Intact

Atour beats revenue estimates and shows strong cost controls, expecting RevPAR growth in 2025. Maintains top buy rating with TP at US$37/ADS.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) - Prudent RevPAR Outlook Offset by Other Initiatives

Maintain BUY and raise TP to US$ 32.01, based on 18x FY25E P/E (rolled over from 23x FY24E P/E), vs current valuation of 15x FY25E P/E.

CMB International

[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) TP Change]: Strong 11.11 Sales Recalibrate E-Commerce Potential

Atour's strong pillow sales on 11.11 lead to increased revenue estimates and potential for hotel expansion, prompting a raise in target price and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$36) Review]: Retail Business Bigger and Longer than Market Thinks

Atour (ATAT) beats revenue and non-GAAP NI estimates, driven by hotel supply chain sales and retail efficiency. Potential growth catalysts include...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) - Guidance Raised Again Plus Massive Dividends

The hotel sector continues to be under pressure in 3Q24E and we are still cautious about a potential improvement in 4Q24E.

CMB International

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) Review]: Small Differences Here & There but Overall Case Intact

​Atour beats revenue estimates and shows strong cost controls, expecting RevPAR growth in 2025. Maintains top buy rating with TP at US$37/ADS.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) - Prudent RevPAR Outlook Offset by Other Initiatives

Maintain BUY and raise TP to US$ 32.01, based on 18x FY25E P/E (rolled over from 23x FY24E P/E), vs current valuation of 15x FY25E P/E.

CMB International

[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) TP Change]: Strong 11.11 Sales Recalibrate E-Commerce Potential

​Atour's strong pillow sales on 11.11 lead to increased revenue estimates and potential for hotel expansion, prompting a raise in target price and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$36) Review]: Retail Business Bigger and Longer than Market Thinks

​Atour (ATAT) beats revenue and non-GAAP NI estimates, driven by hotel supply chain sales and retail efficiency. Potential growth catalysts include...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) - Guidance Raised Again Plus Massive Dividends

The hotel sector continues to be under pressure in 3Q24E and we are still cautious about a potential improvement in 4Q24E.

CMB International

Atour beats revenue estimates and shows strong cost controls, expecting RevPAR growth in 2025. Maintains top buy rating with TP at US$37/ADS.

Atour's strong pillow sales on 11.11 lead to increased revenue estimates and potential for hotel expansion, prompting a raise in target price and...

Atour (ATAT) beats revenue and non-GAAP NI estimates, driven by hotel supply chain sales and retail efficiency. Potential growth catalysts include...