Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.</li>
<li>From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.</li>
<li>An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.</li>
</ul>


We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.
From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.
An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.


TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

<ul>
<li>Intel's upcoming Meteor Lake family of chips will include a new specific component specifically for running AI processes locally on PCs.</li>
<li>Meteor Lake will enable mass market adoption of AI PCs by providing a platform for developers to create more advanced AI PC applications than are currently possible.</li>
<li>Meteor Lake's launch could start by end-October. Intel's Innovation conference September 19-20th will likely add visibility. Intel's potential supports a Long thesis for Taiwan's PC supply chain.</li>
</ul>


Intel's upcoming Meteor Lake family of chips will include a new specific component specifically for running AI processes locally on PCs.
Meteor Lake will enable mass market adoption of AI PCs by providing a platform for developers to create more advanced AI PC applications than are currently possible.
Meteor Lake's launch could start by end-October. Intel's Innovation conference September 19-20th will likely add visibility. Intel's potential supports a Long thesis for Taiwan's PC supply chain.


Intel's Meteor Lake Chips Could Make It 'Cool' Again; Will Enable Mass Market Adoption of AI PCs

<ul>
<li>Asustek and Acer recently reported 2Q23 results with both companies showing a rebound in margins and normalized inventory levels. The cycle trough is clearly past.</li>
<li>Asustek expects to grow its server product revenue by 500% by 2027 and is also developing AI PCs that could generate a significant sales volume by 3Q24.</li>
<li>The latest results and comments not just make a coming PC up-cycle clear, but also imply that it could be stronger than previous cycles thanks to AI PCs.</li>
</ul>


Asustek and Acer recently reported 2Q23 results with both companies showing a rebound in margins and normalized inventory levels. The cycle trough is clearly past.
Asustek expects to grow its server product revenue by 500% by 2027 and is also developing AI PCs that could generate a significant sales volume by 3Q24.
The latest results and comments not just make a coming PC up-cycle clear, but also imply that it could be stronger than previous cycles thanks to AI PCs.


PC Monitor: Asustek Preparing for AI PC Upgrade Wave, Volume Sales in 3Q24

Taiwan Tech Focused Asia L/S Analyst

Henry King

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our latest checks with VGA card makers, ABF substate companies and mining system thermal suppliers all indicate VGA card demand is weakening.</li>
<li>Sanction on Russia and Shenzhen lockdown also dampens the VGA card downward trend</li>
<li>GPU prices remain unchanged though VGA card prices continue to fall. VGA card makers' sales and profit premium from the ASP hike shrinks gradually.</li>
</ul>


Our latest checks with VGA card makers, ABF substate companies and mining system thermal suppliers all indicate VGA card demand is weakening.
Sanction on Russia and Shenzhen lockdown also dampens the VGA card downward trend
GPU prices remain unchanged though VGA card prices continue to fall. VGA card makers' sales and profit premium from the ASP hike shrinks gradually.


More Evidences Show VGA Card Demand Is Weakening. Maintain Our Conservative View on VGA Card Market

<ul>
<li>1H22 is likely the peak for VGA card. Our checks with VGA card makers indicate VGA card price fell in January/February and likely to continue for the rest of 2022. </li>
<li>Potential supply surge, demand decline, and price drop will all lead VGA market to trend south in 2H22.</li>
<li>VGA makers will be negatively impacted in 2H22. Gigabyte may be hit the most whereas Asustek may hit the least. Nvidia should also be hit at a certain degree.</li>
</ul>


1H22 is likely the peak for VGA card. Our checks with VGA card makers indicate VGA card price fell in January/February and likely to continue for the rest of 2022. 
Potential supply surge, demand decline, and price drop will all lead VGA market to trend south in 2H22.
VGA makers will be negatively impacted in 2H22. Gigabyte may be hit the most whereas Asustek may hit the least. Nvidia should also be hit at a certain degree.


The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

Taiwan

Asustek Computer Inc. manufactures and markets computer motherboards, interface cards, notebook computers, and other related products.

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Asustek Computer (2357 TT)

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel's Meteor Lake Chips Could Make It 'Cool' Again; Will Enable Mass Market Adoption of AI PCs

Intel's Meteor Lake chip family will enable mass adoption of AI PCs and the company could become widely admired by the market again. This also...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC Monitor: Asustek Preparing for AI PC Upgrade Wave, Volume Sales in 3Q24

Asustek and Acer recently reported 2Q23 results with both companies showing a rebound in margins and normalized inventory levels. The cycle trough...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

More Evidences Show VGA Card Demand Is Weakening. Maintain Our Conservative View on VGA Card Market

After several years of robust growth on mining demand, we are likely to see the turning point for VGA cards in 1H22. We see more data points in...

Henry King

The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

While Taiwanese VGA card makers reported record sales in January and NVIDIA reported record quarterly revenue for 4QFY22, the outlook of the VGA...

Henry King

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

​Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel's Meteor Lake Chips Could Make It 'Cool' Again; Will Enable Mass Market Adoption of AI PCs

Intel's Meteor Lake chip family will enable mass adoption of AI PCs and the company could become widely admired by the market again. This also...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC Monitor: Asustek Preparing for AI PC Upgrade Wave, Volume Sales in 3Q24

Asustek and Acer recently reported 2Q23 results with both companies showing a rebound in margins and normalized inventory levels. The cycle trough...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

More Evidences Show VGA Card Demand Is Weakening. Maintain Our Conservative View on VGA Card Market

After several years of robust growth on mining demand, we are likely to see the turning point for VGA cards in 1H22. We see more data points in...

Henry King

The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

While Taiwanese VGA card makers reported record sales in January and NVIDIA reported record quarterly revenue for 4QFY22, the outlook of the VGA...

Henry King

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...