Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After a multi-year drop in ownership, UK fund exposure in HSBC Holdings is on the rise. </li>
<li>Over the last 6-months, average fund weights have increased by +0.33% as new positions outnumbered closing positions by a factor of 2.</li>
<li>With increasing active fund ownership and rising benchmark weights, UK Equity funds need higher conviction to omit HSBC from their portfolio.</li>
</ul>


After a multi-year drop in ownership, UK fund exposure in HSBC Holdings is on the rise. 
Over the last 6-months, average fund weights have increased by +0.33% as new positions outnumbered closing positions by a factor of 2.
With increasing active fund ownership and rising benchmark weights, UK Equity funds need higher conviction to omit HSBC from their portfolio.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Astrazeneca Plc Spons Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>AstraZeneca achieved mixed results in the last quarter with total revenues surpassing Wall Street expectations but it missed out on meeting the earnings expectations of analysts.</li><li>The company had a total revenue of $44.4 billion in 2022, a 25% increase at CER, while core EPS was $6.66, a 33% increase from 2021 levels.</li><li>Looking ahead to 2023, AstraZeneca remains confident that the strength of its underlying portfolio will allow it to outgrow revenue decreases from its COVID-19 medicines.</li></ul>

AstraZeneca achieved mixed results in the last quarter with total revenues surpassing Wall Street expectations but it missed out on meeting the earnings expectations of analysts.The company had a total revenue of $44.4 billion in 2022, a 25% increase at CER, while core EPS was $6.66, a 33% increase from 2021 levels.Looking ahead to 2023, AstraZeneca remains confident that the strength of its underlying portfolio will allow it to outgrow revenue decreases from its COVID-19 medicines.

AstraZeneca PLC: Overcoming The Challenges Of Pricing Clawbacks – Key Drivers

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lianbio" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34478:1" rel="noopener">LianBio (LIAN US)</a> is expected to report pivotal data from late-stage trials of its drug candidates as well as file for marketing approval for mavacamten in China in 2023.</li>
<li>Lead candidate mavacamten has potential blockbuster opportunity in China. LianBio has entered into commercialization agreement with Pfizer for sisunatovir in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Singapore.</li>
<li>With current cash position sufficient to fund operations through the end of 2024, LianBio is well positioned to become a commercial-stage company.</li>
</ul>



LianBio (LIAN US) is expected to report pivotal data from late-stage trials of its drug candidates as well as file for marketing approval for mavacamten in China in 2023.
Lead candidate mavacamten has potential blockbuster opportunity in China. LianBio has entered into commercialization agreement with Pfizer for sisunatovir in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Singapore.
With current cash position sufficient to fund operations through the end of 2024, LianBio is well positioned to become a commercial-stage company.


LianBio (LIAN US): 2023 Is Going to Be Data Heavy; Current Cash Runway Raises Commercialization Hope

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)</li>
<li>As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners


Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jcr-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20126:1" rel="noopener">Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP)</a>'s cash cow Growject, recombinant human growth hormone, is reporting decelerating revenue due to insurance price revision. The drug is also facing competition.  </li>
<li>JCR’s latest marketed product Izcargo is on a strong growth trajectory. However, the drug is not big enough to compensate for the revenue loss from Growject.  </li>
<li>The company’s bottom-line is under pressure due to elevated R&amp;D expenses. Cash position has also deteriorated. No near-term product launch is anticipated.  </li>
</ul>



Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP)'s cash cow Growject, recombinant human growth hormone, is reporting decelerating revenue due to insurance price revision. The drug is also facing competition.  
JCR’s latest marketed product Izcargo is on a strong growth trajectory. However, the drug is not big enough to compensate for the revenue loss from Growject.  
The company’s bottom-line is under pressure due to elevated R&amp;D expenses. Cash position has also deteriorated. No near-term product launch is anticipated.  


Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP): Mainstay Drug Revenue Declining; High R&D Cost Worsens Profitability

United Kingdom

AstraZeneca PLC operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, researches, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical and medical products. AstraZeneca focuses its operations on eight therapeutic areas, including gastrointestinal, oncology, cardiovascular, respiratory, central nervous system, pain control, anaesthesia, and infection.

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AstraZeneca PLC (AZN LN)

HSBC Holdings: Conviction Returns

After years of decline, UK active managers are buying back into HSBC. Increased fund ownership and rising index weights make it more difficult for...

Steven Holden

AstraZeneca PLC: Overcoming The Challenges Of Pricing Clawbacks – Key Drivers

AstraZeneca achieved mixed results in the last quarter with total revenues surpassing Wall Street expectations but it missed out on meeting the...

Baptista Research

LianBio (LIAN US): 2023 Is Going to Be Data Heavy; Current Cash Runway Raises Commercialization Hope

This year, LianBio expects to report late-stage trial data, initiate clinical trials, and file marketing approval for lead drug candidate in China....

Tina Banerjee

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP): Mainstay Drug Revenue Declining; High R&D Cost Worsens Profitability

Revenue from JCR’s flagship drug Growject declined 7% to ¥9.3B during 9MFY23, due to the negative impact of insurance price. As R&D cost is...

Tina Banerjee

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