Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Bangkok Expressway and Metro / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Low ridership and reopening have presented a dilemma to investors whether it is time to start building positions in the mass transport operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-expressway-and-metro-68c0c1b3-af0c-4380-a380-f3dc7ba5d5ac" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22849:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM TB)</a> . On one hand, the low ridership presents room for improvement which means recovery of net income, therefore, a lower forward PE multiple. On the other hand, the reopening is yet to happen and how much is the increase in ridership is unclear. </p>
<p>With the reopening date is set, coming back to school, and the support from the Thai government to jump-start the tourism sector by having a grandiose New Year celebration with no less than sending an invite to the world-renown Andrea Bocelli to perform,  the mass transport ridership is set to increase from both the domestic reopening as well as from the increase in tourists arrival.</p>
<p>Compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> which trades at 8x book value, BEM (at 3.6x book value) does not look expensive.  BEM'share price is trailing behind <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22915:1" rel="noopener">Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX)</a> in the recovery from COVID-19.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/236/285/original/image_21721413921634706788909.png?1634706789" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="236285"></figure>
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<div class="content-remarks">
<p>source: Reuters</p>
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Low ridership and reopening have presented a dilemma to investors whether it is time to start building positions in the mass transport operator Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM TB) . On one hand, the low ridership presents room for improvement which means recovery of net income, therefore, a lower forward PE multiple. On the other hand, the reopening is yet to happen and how much is the increase in ridership is unclear. 
With the reopening date is set, coming back to school, and the support from the Thai government to jump-start the tourism sector by having a grandiose New Year celebration with no less than sending an invite to the world-renown Andrea Bocelli to perform,  the mass transport ridership is set to increase from both the domestic reopening as well as from the increase in tourists arrival.
Compared to Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) which trades at 8x book value, BEM (at 3.6x book value) does not look expensive.  BEM'share price is trailing behind Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX) in the recovery from COVID-19.



source: Reuters


Bangkok Expressway (BEM): Ridership Increase

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abbisko-cayman-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33511:1" rel="noopener">Abbisko Cayman (ABB HK)</a> is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery and development of innovative and differentiated small molecule oncology therapies. Abbisko has developed a pipeline of 14 candidates focused on oncology, including five candidates at the clinical stage The core products are ABSK091, a pan-FGFR inhibitor licensed from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astrazeneca-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21824:1" rel="noopener">AstraZeneca PLC (AZN LN)</a> and ABSK011, an FGFR4 inhibitor. </p></div><div><p>Abbisko has launched an HKEx IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,585.1 million ($204 million) at the mid-point of the IPO price range of HK$12.16-12.46 per share.</p></div><div><p>Eleven cornerstone investors have agreed to invest about $128 million in the IPO (57.32% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). Seven out of the eleven cornerstones are existing investors. They are Janchor Partners, Lilly Asia Ventures, Temasek, Lake Bleu Capital, OrbiMed, Warburg Pincus and BlackRock. The four cornerstones which are not existing shareholders are AIHC Capital, UBS AM, Hudson Bay and Vivo Funds.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/abbisko-ipo-a-promising-but-longer-term-prognosis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:58004" rel="noopener">Abbisko IPO: A Promising but Longer Term Prognosis</a>, we stated that while both core products are at an early stage of development, promising results from trials, management’s track record and the exceptional line-up of blue-chip backers suggest that the product candidates have the potential to succeed in a fiercely competitive market. We concluded that Abbisko is worth a closer look. However, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is full and we would remain on the sidelines awaiting a better entry opportunity. </p></div></div></div>

Abbisko Cayman (ABB HK) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery and development of innovative and differentiated small molecule oncology therapies. Abbisko has developed a pipeline of 14 candidates focused on oncology, including five candidates at the clinical stage The core products are ABSK091, a pan-FGFR inhibitor licensed from AstraZeneca PLC (AZN LN) and ABSK011, an FGFR4 inhibitor. Abbisko has launched an HKEx IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,585.1 million ($204 million) at the mid-point of the IPO price range of HK$12.16-12.46 per share.Eleven cornerstone investors have agreed to invest about $128 million in the IPO (57.32% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). Seven out of the eleven cornerstones are existing investors. They are Janchor Partners, Lilly Asia Ventures, Temasek, Lake Bleu Capital, OrbiMed, Warburg Pincus and BlackRock. The four cornerstones which are not existing shareholders are AIHC Capital, UBS AM, Hudson Bay and Vivo Funds.In Abbisko IPO: A Promising but Longer Term Prognosis, we stated that while both core products are at an early stage of development, promising results from trials, management’s track record and the exceptional line-up of blue-chip backers suggest that the product candidates have the potential to succeed in a fiercely competitive market. We concluded that Abbisko is worth a closer look. However, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is full and we would remain on the sidelines awaiting a better entry opportunity. 

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.</p><p>UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.</p><p>Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.</p><p>Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.</p><p>German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21713:1" rel="noopener">Siemens AG (SIE GR)</a> were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.</p><p>Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.</p>

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). Sony Corp (6758 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP) are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR) and Siemens AG (SIE GR) were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Global Fund Positioning Update:  Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abbisko-cayman-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33511:1" rel="noopener">Abbisko Cayman (ABB HK)</a> is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery and development of innovative and differentiated small molecule oncology therapies. Abbisko has developed a pipeline of 14 candidates focused on oncology, including five candidates at the clinical stage The core products are ABSK091, a pan-FGFR inhibitor licensed from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astrazeneca-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21824:1" rel="noopener">AstraZeneca PLC (AZN LN)</a> and ABSK011, an FGFR4 inhibitor. Abbisko is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $300 million, according to press reports. </p><p>Abbisko has a credible management team with a commendable commercialisation track record. The three co-founders together have made contributions to several discovery programs, several of which led to successful commercialisation. Abbisko also has several blue-chip backers such as Lilly Asia Ventures, Sinopharm Capital, Qiming Venture Capital, GIC, Temasek, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)</a>, Lake Bleu Capital and OrbiMed. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>While both core products are at an early stage of development, promising results from trials, management’s track record and the exceptional line-up of blue-chip backers suggest that the product candidates have the potential to succeed in a fiercely competitive market. Overall, we believe that Abbisko is worth a closer look. </p></div>

Abbisko Cayman (ABB HK) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery and development of innovative and differentiated small molecule oncology therapies. Abbisko has developed a pipeline of 14 candidates focused on oncology, including five candidates at the clinical stage The core products are ABSK091, a pan-FGFR inhibitor licensed from AstraZeneca PLC (AZN LN) and ABSK011, an FGFR4 inhibitor. Abbisko is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $300 million, according to press reports. Abbisko has a credible management team with a commendable commercialisation track record. The three co-founders together have made contributions to several discovery programs, several of which led to successful commercialisation. Abbisko also has several blue-chip backers such as Lilly Asia Ventures, Sinopharm Capital, Qiming Venture Capital, GIC, Temasek, Carlyle Group Inc (CG US), Lake Bleu Capital and OrbiMed. While both core products are at an early stage of development, promising results from trials, management’s track record and the exceptional line-up of blue-chip backers suggest that the product candidates have the potential to succeed in a fiercely competitive market. Overall, we believe that Abbisko is worth a closer look. 

Abbisko IPO: A Promising but Longer Term Prognosis

<p>Thailand has found out an interesting mix of vaccines that is so far safe with a number of Thai as clinical trials that led the government to regain its confidence in the country's reopening. The company's share price has lagged the Thai Index by around 12% and it is currently trading at 7% PBR to its 5 years historical PBR. The downside may come from the slow down in the vaccination drive and also from the potential of further virus mutataion. Nonetheless, Thailand is recovering from the COVID-19 as herd immunity in China is expected to be achieved by end of this year thus a potential for a revenue increment in the next year. </p>

Thailand has found out an interesting mix of vaccines that is so far safe with a number of Thai as clinical trials that led the government to regain its confidence in the country's reopening. The company's share price has lagged the Thai Index by around 12% and it is currently trading at 7% PBR to its 5 years historical PBR. The downside may come from the slow down in the vaccination drive and also from the potential of further virus mutataion. Nonetheless, Thailand is recovering from the COVID-19 as herd immunity in China is expected to be achieved by end of this year thus a potential for a revenue increment in the next year. 

United Kingdom

AstraZeneca PLC is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, researches, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical and medical products. AstraZeneca focuses its operations on eight therapeutic areas: Gastrointestinal, Oncology, Cardiovascular, Respiratory, Central Nervous System, Pain Control, Anaesthesia, and Infection.

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Astrazeneca Plc Spons Adr (AZN US)

Bangkok Expressway (BEM): Ridership Increase

the reopening date is set, and with the support from the Thai government to jump-start the tourism sector, the MRT ridership is set to increase....

Henry Soediarko

Abbisko IPO: Valuation Insights

Abbisko plans to raise $204m (net) at the mid-point of the IPO price range. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is full and we...

Arun George

Global Fund Positioning Update: Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

A detailed look at investor positioning among 380 active Global strategies, covering the major themes in country, sector and stock exposure.

Steven Holden

Abbisko IPO: A Promising but Longer Term Prognosis

While both core products are at an early stage of development, promising trials, management’s track record and blue-chip backers suggest that the...

Arun George

AOT: Thailand Reopening

Thailand is recovering from the COVID-19 as herd immunity in China is expected to be achieved by end of this year thus a potential for a revenue...

Henry Soediarko

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