Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

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BWS Financial Inc

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASRT is not including the recent guideline change at American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy ("ASEG") for using indomethacin as part of their 2023 outlook allows ample room to the upside.</li>
<li>ASRT had previously provided preliminary fourth quarter results. The official numbers were not much different</li>
<li>Indocin has been the core of ASRT’s revenue and free cash flow. The new guidelines could become a game changing event for the drug and ASRT</li>
</ul>


ASRT is not including the recent guideline change at American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy ("ASEG") for using indomethacin as part of their 2023 outlook allows ample room to the upside.
ASRT had previously provided preliminary fourth quarter results. The official numbers were not much different
Indocin has been the core of ASRT’s revenue and free cash flow. The new guidelines could become a game changing event for the drug and ASRT


<ul>
<li>ASRT could significantly benefit from a new guideline set by American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy ("ASEG") this week related to the use of indomethacin (Indocin) post ERCP surgery.</li>
<li>Indocin is ASRT's largest source of revenue and nearly all the revenue from off-line use related to post ERCP surgery.</li>
<li>We updated our earnings model when ASRT issued preliminary fourth quarter results. We believe the ASEG guidance could lead to accelerated market expansion in coming months</li>
</ul>


ASRT could significantly benefit from a new guideline set by American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy ("ASEG") this week related to the use of indomethacin (Indocin) post ERCP surgery.
Indocin is ASRT's largest source of revenue and nearly all the revenue from off-line use related to post ERCP surgery.
We updated our earnings model when ASRT issued preliminary fourth quarter results. We believe the ASEG guidance could lead to accelerated market expansion in coming months


ASRT: ASEG Guideline a Significant Positive, PT to $8

<ul>
<li>ASRT issued preliminary fourth quarter 2022 results highlighting the continued growth in revenue. We assume the increase in revenue was due to uplift in Indocin usage in the quarter.</li>
<li>Heading into 2023, ASRT is carrying a larger than expected cash balance to deploy in making acquisitions</li>
<li>ASRT is forecasting fourth quarter sales of $49 to $50 million compared to our estimate of $47.1 million</li>
</ul>


ASRT issued preliminary fourth quarter 2022 results highlighting the continued growth in revenue. We assume the increase in revenue was due to uplift in Indocin usage in the quarter.
Heading into 2023, ASRT is carrying a larger than expected cash balance to deploy in making acquisitions
ASRT is forecasting fourth quarter sales of $49 to $50 million compared to our estimate of $47.1 million


ASRT: Updated Q4 Results Puts 2023 in Focus

<ul>
<li>ASRT has setup 2023 with the potential for growth even though Cambia now has generic competition. ASRT had been mentioning the generic competition for more than a year.</li>
<li>Looking ahead to 2023, ASRT should benefit from having samples of Otrextup available for physicians.</li>
<li>Indocin remains the primary revenue generator for ASRT. We are expecting greater revenue contribution from Indocin to offset Cambia</li>
</ul>


ASRT has setup 2023 with the potential for growth even though Cambia now has generic competition. ASRT had been mentioning the generic competition for more than a year.
Looking ahead to 2023, ASRT should benefit from having samples of Otrextup available for physicians.
Indocin remains the primary revenue generator for ASRT. We are expecting greater revenue contribution from Indocin to offset Cambia


<ul>
<li>ASRT reported third quarter revenue that were down from the second quarter due to ASRT deciding to remove Indocin from the Government’s voluntary 340b pricing program</li>
<li>The addition of Sympazan gives ASRT a new asset in growing revenue and adjusted EBITDA in 2023</li>
<li>ASRT reported third quarter revenue of $34.2 million compared to our estimate of $31.6 million. We were expecting ASRT’s commentary related to Indocin would yield lower revenue than it did.</li>
</ul>


ASRT reported third quarter revenue that were down from the second quarter due to ASRT deciding to remove Indocin from the Government’s voluntary 340b pricing program
The addition of Sympazan gives ASRT a new asset in growing revenue and adjusted EBITDA in 2023
ASRT reported third quarter revenue of $34.2 million compared to our estimate of $31.6 million. We were expecting ASRT’s commentary related to Indocin would yield lower revenue than it did.


United States

Assertio Holdings, Inc. operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company offers oral suspension, suppositories, tablets, nasal spray, and capsules. Assertio Holdings serves clients in the United States.

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Assertio Holdings (ASRT US)

ASRT: Primed for Growth

The highlight of the earnings call was guidance does not include any benefit from the recent ASEG guideline change. We continue to believe this...

BWS Financial Inc

ASRT: ASEG Guideline a Significant Positive, PT to $8

ASEG issued new guidelines this week related to ERCP surgery and using indomethacin (Indocin). Indocin is ASRT's largest source of sales, and this...

BWS Financial Inc

ASRT: Updated Q4 Results Puts 2023 in Focus

The revenue increase in the quarter led to ASRT ending the period with a larger cash balance than expected. We believe ASRT has the balance sheet...

BWS Financial Inc

ASRT: Looking Ahead to 2023

In 2023, while Cambia revenue goes away it should be offset by growth from Indocin, Otrexup, and newly acquired Sympazan. ASRT's stock remains...

BWS Financial Inc

ASRT: Asserting a Low Valuation

ASRT has made a small acquisition that should be immediately accretive to the bottom line and cash flow starting in the fourth quarter. Cost...

BWS Financial Inc

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