ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ)</a> results revealed a positive finish to 2023 and an optimistic outlook for 2024, with new store rollout and shorter promotion periods set to boost sales.</li>
<li>ACES continues to roll out its new format stores and renovate existing stores with a positive result, with 20 stores expected to be renovated in 2024 and 15-20 new stores,</li>
<li>The company has seen strong momentum in 2M2024 with +10% SSSG and remains confident about the outlook, with positive guidance for growth. Valuations remain attractive versus history. </li>
</ul>



Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) results revealed a positive finish to 2023 and an optimistic outlook for 2024, with new store rollout and shorter promotion periods set to boost sales.
ACES continues to roll out its new format stores and renovate existing stores with a positive result, with 20 stores expected to be renovated in 2024 and 15-20 new stores,
The company has seen strong momentum in 2M2024 with +10% SSSG and remains confident about the outlook, with positive guidance for growth. Valuations remain attractive versus history. 


Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) - New Product Cycles and Formats

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>ACES Jan24 YTD foot traffic shows a positive growth yoy, which we expect to continue as we approach CNY and Ramadan festivities.</li><li>FY23 SSSG (8.1%) beat the management’s guidance (+6.8%), supported by the strong performance of ex-Java stores (SSSG: +12.7%).</li><li>Growth in FY24 will focus on continuation of ex-Java expansion, traffic recovery and efficiencies. Maintain Buy rating and TP of Rp920.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ACES Jan24 YTD foot traffic shows a positive growth yoy, which we expect to continue as we approach CNY and Ramadan festivities.FY23 SSSG (8.1%) beat the management’s guidance (+6.8%), supported by the strong performance of ex-Java stores (SSSG: +12.7%).Growth in FY24 will focus on continuation of ex-Java expansion, traffic recovery and efficiencies. Maintain Buy rating and TP of Rp920.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ace Hardware Indonesia - Growth Recovery Outlook Intact on Positive Jan24

<ul>
<li>A meeting with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia</a> revealed a newfound enthusiasm and confidence in the outlook for growth with new store formats and an omnichannel approach as key future drivers. </li>
<li>The company will accelerate its store buildout in 2024 with plans for 20 new stores versus 13 in 2023 with new format stores taking the lead, with an emphasis ex-Java.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ)</a> will also accelerate the buildout of smaller-sized Ace Express stores with a pilot started this year.  Recent share price weakness looks unjustified.</li>
</ul>


A meeting with Ace Hardware Indonesia revealed a newfound enthusiasm and confidence in the outlook for growth with new store formats and an omnichannel approach as key future drivers. 
The company will accelerate its store buildout in 2024 with plans for 20 new stores versus 13 in 2023 with new format stores taking the lead, with an emphasis ex-Java.

Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) will also accelerate the buildout of smaller-sized Ace Express stores with a pilot started this year.  Recent share price weakness looks unjustified.


Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Reinvigorated with Significant Upside

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. </li>
<li>Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.</li>
<li>Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. 
Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.
Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. 


Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Indonesia

PT Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia Tbk retails tools, home improvement products, lawn and garden supplies, plumbing, furniture, sporting goods, and pet supplies.

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Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ)

Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) - New Product Cycles and Formats

Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) continued its positive sales momentum in March 2024. with SSSG of +19.9% YoY nationwide, taking the YTD SSSG to an...

Angus Mackintosh

Ace Hardware Indonesia - Growth Recovery Outlook Intact on Positive Jan24

ACES Jan24 YTD foot traffic shows a positive growth yoy, which we expect to continue as we approach CNY and Ramadan festivities.

BRI Danareksa Research

Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Reinvigorated with Significant Upside

A meeting with Ace Hardware Indonesia revealed a newfound enthusiasm and confidence in the outlook for growth with new store formats and an...

Angus Mackintosh

Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top...

Angus Mackintosh

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in July. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

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