Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global semi sales for the month of June 2023 amounted to $41.5 billion, +1.7% MoM but still down ~17% YoY.</li>
<li>Nanya reported monthly revenue for July 2023 of NT$ 2,437 million, a slight decrease MoM and still down 44.5% YoY:</li>
<li>For the YTD through July, ASPEED’s revenue is down 47% YoY. This translates into a similar percentage decrease in global server sales YoY in 2023. </li>
</ul>


Global semi sales for the month of June 2023 amounted to $41.5 billion, +1.7% MoM but still down ~17% YoY.
Nanya reported monthly revenue for July 2023 of NT$ 2,437 million, a slight decrease MoM and still down 44.5% YoY:
For the YTD through July, ASPEED’s revenue is down 47% YoY. This translates into a similar percentage decrease in global server sales YoY in 2023. 


Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 7/8/23

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in <em>Int’l Compass</em> and <em>ETF Pathfinder</em> reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

<ul>
<li>Nvidia guidance shook semiconductor stocks last week and remains an overhang this week.</li>
<li>Nvidia's outlook for its different segments may highlight longer-term industry trends, a major shift is coming in terms of semiconductor end-demand growth.</li>
<li>The latest chip prices for DRAM and SPOT are weak, but company margins and balance sheets are very strong going into the latest downturn.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia guidance shook semiconductor stocks last week and remains an overhang this week.
Nvidia's outlook for its different segments may highlight longer-term industry trends, a major shift is coming in terms of semiconductor end-demand growth.
The latest chip prices for DRAM and SPOT are weak, but company margins and balance sheets are very strong going into the latest downturn.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Spooking the Market, Look to Auto Demand Growth

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Five stock remains, and nine new join the fray</li>
<li>Since its inception, the portfolio has gained 75% versus MSCI Asia ex Japan's 64%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Portfolio changes: Five stock remains, and nine new join the fray
Since its inception, the portfolio has gained 75% versus MSCI Asia ex Japan's 64%


Taiwan

ASPEED Technology Inc. is a fabless IC-design house that specializes in server management, PC/AV extensions solution, desktop virtualization and security enhancement. The Company's products range from silicon chips, IPs to software products that enable sophisticated SOC- centric multimedia, praphics and new work applications.

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Aspeed Technology (5274 TT)

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 7/8/23

Global semi sales for June '23 ~$41.5 billion, +1.7% MoM, -17% YoY. Nanya July 2023 revenue NT$ 2,437 million, -1% MoM, -44.5% YoY. ASPEED YTD...

William Keating

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Spooking the Market, Look to Auto Demand Growth

Nvidia guidance shook semiconductor stocks last week and remains an overhang this week. We also show how Automotive will become the single largest...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 36

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Five stock remains, and nine new join...

A. Stotz Investment Research

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