Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Geopolitical risks are building, not only because of the developments in the Middle East. Semiconductor companies, including ASML and NVIDIA, got a clear warning this week that their growth ambitions in China are at risk. </li>
<li>Chinese property developers show ‘Crypto-like’ declines, and downside risks for Commodities appear.</li>
<li>Bond yields keep pushing higher, but our fair value estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield points to a peak.</li>
</ul>


Geopolitical risks are building, not only because of the developments in the Middle East. Semiconductor companies, including ASML and NVIDIA, got a clear warning this week that their growth ambitions in China are at risk. 
Chinese property developers show ‘Crypto-like’ declines, and downside risks for Commodities appear.
Bond yields keep pushing higher, but our fair value estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield points to a peak.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Where’s the Plunge Protection Team?

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
The new clarification of the October export restrictions came out today, and as far as I can tell, it is a slight liberalization of the previous export restrictions for semicap. 
</li>
<li>
For AI, it looks to be the closing of the A800 and H800 loopholes.
</li>
<li>
I read both documents. They are pretty dense, and instead of going through a super detailed analysis, I want to give you a spark notes version of the export restrictions and the implications.
</li>
</ul>



The new clarification of the October export restrictions came out today, and as far as I can tell, it is a slight liberalization of the previous export restrictions for semicap. 


For AI, it looks to be the closing of the A800 and H800 loopholes.


I read both documents. They are pretty dense, and instead of going through a super detailed analysis, I want to give you a spark notes version of the export restrictions and the implications.



Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC and ASML will report results this week. We may get additional detail about the scope of AI-related demand as a medium-term driver for the semiconductor industry.</li>
<li>Many Taiwan AI plays were top losers last week. Separately, the U.S. is expected to announce new tech restrictions for China this week.</li>
<li>SK Hynix is reportedly working closely with Mediatek to integrate some of its most advanced memory in Mediatek's flagship Dimensity chips. Mediatek was a top gainer last week.</li>
</ul>


TSMC and ASML will report results this week. We may get additional detail about the scope of AI-related demand as a medium-term driver for the semiconductor industry.
Many Taiwan AI plays were top losers last week. Separately, the U.S. is expected to announce new tech restrictions for China this week.
SK Hynix is reportedly working closely with Mediatek to integrate some of its most advanced memory in Mediatek's flagship Dimensity chips. Mediatek was a top gainer last week.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC & ASML Results This Week; Taiwan AI Plays Top Losers

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> has trimmed its IPO price from JPY1,890 to JPY1,830-1,840 per share to raise up to US$727 million. The IPO price will be determined on 16 October.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kokusai-electric-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:113787" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kokusai-electric-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:114152" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kokusai-electric-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:114376" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>Our base-case DCF valuation is JPY2,058 per share. Peers have modestly re-rated, and a lower IPO price range helps increase the IPO's attractiveness.</li>
</ul>



Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) has trimmed its IPO price from JPY1,890 to JPY1,830-1,840 per share to raise up to US$727 million. The IPO price will be determined on 16 October.
We previously discussed the IPO in Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bull Case, Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bear Case and Kokusai Electric IPO: Valuation Insights. 
Our base-case DCF valuation is JPY2,058 per share. Peers have modestly re-rated, and a lower IPO price range helps increase the IPO's attractiveness.


Kokusai Electric IPO: Lower Price Range Is Reasonable

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>KKR is looking to raise around US$730m via selling a stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> (KE) in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.</li>
<li>In our previous notes we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>


KKR is looking to raise around US$730m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO.
KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
In our previous notes we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuations.


Kokusai Electric IPO - Not Wholly Convinced, One Needs to Look past the Cycle

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

The Weekly Market Monitor – Where’s the Plunge Protection Team?

China's National Team seems absent as Chinese stocks tumble, geopolitics take center stage, but still, Sentiment is not depressed enough.

Jeroen Blokland

October Restrictions Implications

The new clarification of the October export restrictions came out today, and as far as I can tell, it is a slight liberalization of the previous...

Fabricated Knowledge

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC & ASML Results This Week; Taiwan AI Plays Top Losers

SK Hynix is reportedly working closely with Mediatek to integrate some of its most advanced memory in Mediatek's flagship Dimensity chips. Mediatek...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Kokusai Electric IPO: Lower Price Range Is Reasonable

Kokusai has priced its IPO at the top of its IPO price range of JPY1,830-1,840 per share to raise US$724.4 million. The international offering was...

Arun George

Kokusai Electric IPO - Not Wholly Convinced, One Needs to Look past the Cycle

KKR is looking to raise around US$730m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

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