Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20-25% y/y growth itself, driven by AI customers. By controlling capex, more rooms to raise dividends but no growth for equipment vendors.</li>
<li>Faster ramp on N3, likely N3E, N3P than competitor's. TSMC expects 3nm from 6% of sales in 3Q23, 12.7% in 4Q23 to 15% in 2024, 3x y/y increase in 2024. </li>
<li>TSMC reports a nearly 30% q/q drop on IOT and consumer IC demand and sees weakness on 12" mature technology despite better demand 8" specialty technology. </li>
</ul>


TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20-25% y/y growth itself, driven by AI customers. By controlling capex, more rooms to raise dividends but no growth for equipment vendors.
Faster ramp on N3, likely N3E, N3P than competitor's. TSMC expects 3nm from 6% of sales in 3Q23, 12.7% in 4Q23 to 15% in 2024, 3x y/y increase in 2024. 
TSMC reports a nearly 30% q/q drop on IOT and consumer IC demand and sees weakness on 12" mature technology despite better demand 8" specialty technology. 


What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SEMI reports September front end and back end test/assembly equipment sales decline of 18% and 25% y/y, respectively, resulting 3Q23 sales decline of 17% and 28% y/y.</li>
<li>However, WSTS/SIA and US ISM Purchasing Managers Index reported more moderate 7% y/y decline in August global semi sales and 4% y/y decline in September index. </li>
<li>The discrepancy is due to global semi vendors are seeing PC and Smartphone IC improvement but need to consume earlier overbuilt inventories first before boosting in house or foundries' capex.</li>
</ul>


SEMI reports September front end and back end test/assembly equipment sales decline of 18% and 25% y/y, respectively, resulting 3Q23 sales decline of 17% and 28% y/y.
However, WSTS/SIA and US ISM Purchasing Managers Index reported more moderate 7% y/y decline in August global semi sales and 4% y/y decline in September index. 
The discrepancy is due to global semi vendors are seeing PC and Smartphone IC improvement but need to consume earlier overbuilt inventories first before boosting in house or foundries' capex.


What Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>U.S. expands China chip restrictions -- Implementing lower performance thresholds and further restricting sales via third party countries.</li>
<li>Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. We will learn more today from Lam and ASML results.</li>
<li>Taiwan AI Plays also to be impacted -- Shares of Wistron, Quanta, Gold Circuit, Asia Vital Gigabyte, Super Micro, Alchip appear precarious.</li>
</ul>


U.S. expands China chip restrictions -- Implementing lower performance thresholds and further restricting sales via third party countries.
Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. We will learn more today from Lam and ASML results.
Taiwan AI Plays also to be impacted -- Shares of Wistron, Quanta, Gold Circuit, Asia Vital Gigabyte, Super Micro, Alchip appear precarious.


U.S. Expands China Chip Restrictions: Taiwan AI Names Most at Risk of Pullback

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported earnings. They beat Q2 estimates, but importantly they guided down Q3 and FY 2023 estimates.</li>
<li>The Q2 beat was widely expected regarding revenue, given that TSMC reports monthly revenue, but the Q3 guide was not.</li>
<li>The midpoint of the guidance has the year-over-year decline decelerating, which I didn’t expect. Moreover, the -10% annual guide throws some water on the second-half recovery. Yes, the second half will be higher than the first, but the recovery is much more muted than historical. And what’s more, margins are looking worse for N3 than a typical node.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported earnings. They beat Q2 estimates, but importantly they guided down Q3 and FY 2023 estimates.
The Q2 beat was widely expected regarding revenue, given that TSMC reports monthly revenue, but the Q3 guide was not.
The midpoint of the guidance has the year-over-year decline decelerating, which I didn’t expect. Moreover, the -10% annual guide throws some water on the second-half recovery. Yes, the second half will be higher than the first, but the recovery is much more muted than historical. And what’s more, margins are looking worse for N3 than a typical node.


TSMC Sees Continued Weakness, and EUV's Quandary (ASML)

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY</li>
<li>FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 showing a modest improvement compared to H1</li>
<li>R&amp;D &amp; CapEx investment increasing significantly while YoY revenue set to decline by 23%</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY
FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 showing a modest improvement compared to H1
R&amp;D &amp; CapEx investment increasing significantly while YoY revenue set to decline by 23%


Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML US)

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors; TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20...

Andrew Lu

What Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us?

Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us global semi vendors are consuming earlier overbuilt inventories first...

Andrew Lu

U.S. Expands China Chip Restrictions: Taiwan AI Names Most at Risk of Pullback

Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. Rather than sell...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Sees Continued Weakness, and EUV's Quandary (ASML)

TSMC sees further inventory correction, I see earnings disappointments. ASML has a quandary if the entire ecosystem is trying to use EUV.

Fabricated Knowledge

Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn

Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY. FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 marginally better than H1.R&D & CapEx...

William Keating

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