Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of $2.43 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint $2.35 billion, down 17.5% sequentially and up 6.4% YoY.</li>
<li>For Q2’23, the company expects revenues of $2.25 billion at the midpoint, down 4% sequentially.</li>
<li>KLAC historically outperforms its peers during semi down cycles. This time will be no different.</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of $2.43 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint $2.35 billion, down 17.5% sequentially and up 6.4% YoY.
For Q2’23, the company expects revenues of $2.25 billion at the midpoint, down 4% sequentially.
KLAC historically outperforms its peers during semi down cycles. This time will be no different.


KLAC Q1'23 Earnings Report. So Far, So Good

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SK Hynix and Samsung reported results in the last week, showing major losses for their memory businesses. More evidence of a 'two-track recovery' for different parts of the chip industry.</li>
<li>SK Hynix's inventory situation worsened based on our analysis; Micron appears to be managing inventory moderately better than peers based on recent results.</li>
<li>Long Micron vs. Short Nanya Technology: Micron has continued to outperform Nanya Tech, as well as SK Hynix and Samsung.</li>
</ul>


SK Hynix and Samsung reported results in the last week, showing major losses for their memory businesses. More evidence of a 'two-track recovery' for different parts of the chip industry.
SK Hynix's inventory situation worsened based on our analysis; Micron appears to be managing inventory moderately better than peers based on recent results.
Long Micron vs. Short Nanya Technology: Micron has continued to outperform Nanya Tech, as well as SK Hynix and Samsung.


Memory Monitor: SK Hynix & Samsung Losses & Conservative Guidance Indicate Two-Track Chip Recovery

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC and ASML reported results last week, with both companies beating consensus earnings expectations.</li>
<li>TSMC and ASML both expect their historically high margins to persist and have both shown a major decline in inventory levels. </li>
<li>TSMC expects utilization to bottom in 2Q23E and improve thereafter; which we believe is strong indication of the cycle bottoming for leaders. TSMC however sees the overall industry taking longer.</li>
</ul>


TSMC and ASML reported results last week, with both companies beating consensus earnings expectations.
TSMC and ASML both expect their historically high margins to persist and have both shown a major decline in inventory levels. 
TSMC expects utilization to bottom in 2Q23E and improve thereafter; which we believe is strong indication of the cycle bottoming for leaders. TSMC however sees the overall industry taking longer.


Nvidia, TSMC, ASML Trading Monitor -  TSMC & ASML Results Indicate Cycle Bottom 2Q23E for Leaders

<ul>
<li>With ~2x exposure to memory compared to its peers, LRCX is feeling the pain</li>
<li>Q1 revenues of  $3.87 billion were marginally higher than the forecasted midpoint, down 26.7% sequentially and down 4.4% YoY.</li>
<li>For the current quarter, LRCX expects revenues to decline a further ~ 20% to $3.1 billion at the midpoint.</li>
</ul>


With ~2x exposure to memory compared to its peers, LRCX is feeling the pain
Q1 revenues of  $3.87 billion were marginally higher than the forecasted midpoint, down 26.7% sequentially and down 4.4% YoY.
For the current quarter, LRCX expects revenues to decline a further ~ 20% to $3.1 billion at the midpoint.


<ul>
<li>No change to FY 2023 outlook but some EUV orders for H2 2024 still remain to be booked</li>
<li>Net systems bookings fell sharply during the quarter, down ~40% sequentially</li>
<li>With an order backlog of ~$39 billion, we see ASML riding out this semi storm relatively unscathed compared to their peers.  </li>
</ul>


No change to FY 2023 outlook but some EUV orders for H2 2024 still remain to be booked
Net systems bookings fell sharply during the quarter, down ~40% sequentially
With an order backlog of ~$39 billion, we see ASML riding out this semi storm relatively unscathed compared to their peers.  


ASML. Still A Safe Harbor In A Semi Storm

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML US)

KLAC Q1'23 Earnings Report. So Far, So Good

Q1’23 revenues of $2.43 billion, down 17.5% sequentially and up 6.4% YoY. KLAC historically outperforms its peers during semi down cycles. This...

William Keating

Memory Monitor: SK Hynix & Samsung Losses & Conservative Guidance Indicate Two-Track Chip Recovery

SK Hynix's inventory metrics worsened while Micron appears to be managing inventory better than peers. We see more evidence of a 'two-track...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nvidia, TSMC, ASML Trading Monitor - TSMC & ASML Results Indicate Cycle Bottom 2Q23E for Leaders

TSMC and ASML both expect their historically high margins to persist and have both shown a major decline in inventory levels.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

LRCX. Memory Bites. Hard

With ~2x exposure to memory compared to its peers, LRCX is feeling the pain.Q1 revenues of $3.87 billion were -26.7% sequentially and -4.4% YoY....

William Keating

ASML. Still A Safe Harbor In A Semi Storm

No change to FY 2023 outlook but some EUV orders for H2 2024 remain to be booked. With an order backlog of ~$39 billion, ASML will ride out this...

William Keating

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