Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in June 2024.</li>
<li>We expect up to <em>four</em> changes in the KOSPI 200 index during the June 2024 index rebal event (down from 5 expected last month)  based on the latest available data.</li>
</ul>


KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in June 2024.
We expect up to four changes in the KOSPI 200 index during the June 2024 index rebal event (down from 5 expected last month)  based on the latest available data.


Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: Four Changes Likely

<ul>
<li>KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in June 2024.</li>
<li>There could be up to five changes in the KOSPI 200 index during the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
</ul>


KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in June 2024.
There could be up to five changes in the KOSPI 200 index during the June 2024 index rebal event.


Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: Up to Five Changes Possible

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Korean Air has reported a 4Q23 net loss of KRW235bn, which is down from a profit of KRW354bn in 4Q22. We had expected KRW264bn profit but higher opex/financing costs weighed</li>
<li>We highlight 4Q23 saw KRW409bn in other financial expenses, which compared to an income of KRW322bn in 9M23. Without this, KAL would have generated profit of around KRW200bn in 4Q23</li>
<li>Pre-Pandemic, 4Q saw a near-breakeven performance (KRW17-38bn losses in 4Q18-4Q19) so a KRW184bn profit in 4Q23 still remains strong relative to pre-pandemic levels</li>
</ul>


Korean Air has reported a 4Q23 net loss of KRW235bn, which is down from a profit of KRW354bn in 4Q22. We had expected KRW264bn profit but higher opex/financing costs weighed
We highlight 4Q23 saw KRW409bn in other financial expenses, which compared to an income of KRW322bn in 9M23. Without this, KAL would have generated profit of around KRW200bn in 4Q23
Pre-Pandemic, 4Q saw a near-breakeven performance (KRW17-38bn losses in 4Q18-4Q19) so a KRW184bn profit in 4Q23 still remains strong relative to pre-pandemic levels


Korean Air - 4Q Loss Driven by Exceptional Financial Costs; Underlying Picture Healthier

<ul>
<li>The US Department of Transport (DOT) has ordered the termination of Delta and Aeromexico's joint venture from October 2024 due to access restrictions in Mexico City.</li>
<li>This follows the (unrelated) US blocking of JetBlue's planned acquisition of Spirit Airlines on the grounds that it would negatively impact consumers.</li>
<li>Each case is different, but the US has previously voiced concerns regarding Korean Air's planned merger with Asiana, and the bar continues to rise for M&amp;A/JV approval globally.</li>
</ul>


The US Department of Transport (DOT) has ordered the termination of Delta and Aeromexico's joint venture from October 2024 due to access restrictions in Mexico City.
This follows the (unrelated) US blocking of JetBlue's planned acquisition of Spirit Airlines on the grounds that it would negatively impact consumers.
Each case is different, but the US has previously voiced concerns regarding Korean Air's planned merger with Asiana, and the bar continues to rise for M&amp;A/JV approval globally.


Korean Air - Another US Example Of A Ruling Against Consolidation Raises Asiana Merger Questions

<ul>
<li>The US Supreme Court has just blocked JetBlue's planned acquisition of Spirit Airlines, ruling on the side of the US DOJ, which had sued to block the proposed deal.</li>
<li>Reuters has reported that the European Commission should approve Korean Air/Asiana imminently following analysis of concessions provided. However, the US and Japan also need to approve the deal.</li>
<li>In "Korean Air - Plan B should Asiana merger fail to gain approval" on 26 October 2023, we highlighted Korean Air is well positioned to continue as a standalone entity.</li>
</ul>


The US Supreme Court has just blocked JetBlue's planned acquisition of Spirit Airlines, ruling on the side of the US DOJ, which had sued to block the proposed deal.
Reuters has reported that the European Commission should approve Korean Air/Asiana imminently following analysis of concessions provided. However, the US and Japan also need to approve the deal.
In "Korean Air - Plan B should Asiana merger fail to gain approval" on 26 October 2023, we highlighted Korean Air is well positioned to continue as a standalone entity.


Korean Air - US Blocking of JetBlue/Spirit Continues Trend of M&A Opposition

South Korea

Asiana Airlines, Inc. provides air cargo and passenger transportation services throughout South Korea and overseas.  The Company also offers airline catering and on-flight duty free shopping services and operates aircraft leasing business.

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Asiana Airlines (020560 KS)

Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: Four Changes Likely

The June 2024 KOSPI Review has most of the same names on the leaderboard as last month. There are now four expected changes. Still tough to trade.

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: Up to Five Changes Possible

The new KOSPI Leaderboard for ADDs and DELETEs in the June 2024 rebal. We see 5 changes a side. 3 remain from last time. A bit early to trade....

Travis Lundy

Korean Air - 4Q Loss Driven by Exceptional Financial Costs; Underlying Picture Healthier

Korean Air results looked disappointing at the headline level, with a 4Q23 loss. However, we point out that excluding an exceptional 4Q23 other...

Neil Glynn

Korean Air - Another US Example Of A Ruling Against Consolidation Raises Asiana Merger Questions

New perspective on the US's approach to considering M&A/joint ventures which is relevant to consider the US's ultimate verdict on Korean Air/Asiana...

Neil Glynn

Korean Air - US Blocking of JetBlue/Spirit Continues Trend of M&A Opposition

Relevant global insight important for Korean Air/Asiana regulatory approval prospects - the US blocking JetBlue/Spirit raises the question as to...

Neil Glynn

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