External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><ul><li>Asian Paints: Asian Paints’ (APNT) Q4 performance was broadly in line.</li><li>SRF: We retain our ADD rating on SRF, with a target price of INR 2,330, on the back of (1) continued healthy performance from speciality chemicals business and packaging films business; (2) strong balance sheet; and (3) deployment of Capex for high-growth speciality chemicals business over the next 3-4 years to tap opportunities emerging from agrochemical and pharmaceutical industries.</li><li>Gujarat Gas: Our BUY recommendation on Gujarat Gas (GGL), with a price target of INR 625, is premised on (1) margin improvement; (2) portfolio of mature, semi- mature, and new geographical areas (GAs); and (3) compelling valuations, given superior return ratios among the city gas distribution players. Q4FY22 EBITDA was 19% above our estimate and APAT was 18% above, owing to 27% above expectation per unit EBITDA margin.</li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: none;"><li><div><div><div><ul style="list-style-type: none;"><li> </li></ul></div></div></div></li></ul></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Asian Paints: Asian Paints’ (APNT) Q4 performance was broadly in line.SRF: We retain our ADD rating on SRF, with a target price of INR 2,330, on the back of (1) continued healthy performance from speciality chemicals business and packaging films business; (2) strong balance sheet; and (3) deployment of Capex for high-growth speciality chemicals business over the next 3-4 years to tap opportunities emerging from agrochemical and pharmaceutical industries.Gujarat Gas: Our BUY recommendation on Gujarat Gas (GGL), with a price target of INR 625, is premised on (1) margin improvement; (2) portfolio of mature, semi- mature, and new geographical areas (GAs); and (3) compelling valuations, given superior return ratios among the city gas distribution players. Q4FY22 EBITDA was 19% above our estimate and APAT was 18% above, owing to 27% above expectation per unit EBITDA margin. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Asian Paints, SRF, Gujarat Gas, Dalmia Bharat, Max Financial

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Asian Paints delivered a strong set of numbers in Q4FY22 with revenue up ~21% YoY to Rs 7,893 Cr, led by a combination of volume growth (up 8%) and price mix.</li><li>However, the near-term challenge still persists and we would wait to see if the visibility of the near term performance sustains before we change our rating to BUY</li><li>We continue to maintain our HOLD rating with an unchanged TP of Rs 3,200 (57x FY24E EPS).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Asian Paints delivered a strong set of numbers in Q4FY22 with revenue up ~21% YoY to Rs 7,893 Cr, led by a combination of volume growth (up 8%) and price mix.However, the near-term challenge still persists and we would wait to see if the visibility of the near term performance sustains before we change our rating to BUYWe continue to maintain our HOLD rating with an unchanged TP of Rs 3,200 (57x FY24E EPS).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asian Paints: Surprise on Margin Front; Maintain BUY

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Recovery trends in discretionary categories are healthy - Our discretionary universe is expected to clock 11/2% revenue/EBITDA growth YoY (partly impacted by Omicron) in Q4FY22 (three-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 15/17% respectively).</li></ul></div></div></div></div><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Ex-jewellery, margin recovery to lag revenue recovery - While profitability is recovering across categories, (1) high commodity prices, (2) restoration of rent/other SG&amp;A overheads coupled with intermittent demand disruptions are likely to keep margins (ex-jewellery) under pressure.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Channel checks: Value chain checks suggest the following: (1) in F&amp;G, international e-tailers, Reliance Retail, and quick commerce players have been improving their assortment availability and pricing mechanisms.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Recovery trends in discretionary categories are healthy - Our discretionary universe is expected to clock 11/2% revenue/EBITDA growth YoY (partly impacted by Omicron) in Q4FY22 (three-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 15/17% respectively).Ex-jewellery, margin recovery to lag revenue recovery - While profitability is recovering across categories, (1) high commodity prices, (2) restoration of rent/other SG&amp;A overheads coupled with intermittent demand disruptions are likely to keep margins (ex-jewellery) under pressure.Channel checks: Value chain checks suggest the following: (1) in F&amp;G, international e-tailers, Reliance Retail, and quick commerce players have been improving their assortment availability and pricing mechanisms.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary - Margin Recovery to Lag that in Topline

<div><ul><li>Recovery trends in discretionary categories are healthy - <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">Our discretionary </span><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">universe is expected to clock 11/2% revenue/EBITDA growth YoY (partly impacted by Omicron) in Q4FY22 (three-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 15/17% respectively).</span></li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Ex-jewellery, margin recovery to lag revenue recovery: While profitability is recovering across categories, (1) high commodity prices, (2) restoration of rent/other SG&amp;A overheads coupled with intermittent demand disruptions are likely to keep margins (ex-jewellery) under pressure.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Channel checks: Value chain checks suggest the following: (1) in F&amp;G, international e-tailers, Reliance Retail, and quick commerce players have been improving their assortment availability and pricing mechanisms.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Recovery trends in discretionary categories are healthy - Our discretionary universe is expected to clock 11/2% revenue/EBITDA growth YoY (partly impacted by Omicron) in Q4FY22 (three-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 15/17% respectively).Ex-jewellery, margin recovery to lag revenue recovery: While profitability is recovering across categories, (1) high commodity prices, (2) restoration of rent/other SG&amp;A overheads coupled with intermittent demand disruptions are likely to keep margins (ex-jewellery) under pressure.Channel checks: Value chain checks suggest the following: (1) in F&amp;G, international e-tailers, Reliance Retail, and quick commerce players have been improving their assortment availability and pricing mechanisms.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary Margin Recovery to Lag that in Topline

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over nearly 4 years and implemented in its current state for nearly 2 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over nearly 4 years and implemented in its current state for nearly 2 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.


India

Asian Paints Limited manufactures a wide range of decorative paints, varnishes, enamels, and black & synthetic resins. The Company, through its subsidiaries, also manufactures specialty industrial chemicals and vinyl pyridine latex products which are used in the manufacture of rubber tires.

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Asian Paints (APNT IN)

HSIE Results Daily: Asian Paints, SRF, Gujarat Gas, Dalmia Bharat, Max Financial

Asian Paints’ (APNT) Q4 performance was broadly in line. Sales growth, at 18.7% (three year CAGR: 17%), marginally exceeded expectations (+3% vs...

HDFC Securities

Asian Paints: Surprise on Margin Front; Maintain BUY

Asian Paints delivered a strong set of numbers in Q4FY22 with revenue up ~21% YoY to Rs 7,893 Cr, led by a combination of volume growth (up 8%) and...

Axis Direct

Consumer Discretionary - Margin Recovery to Lag that in Topline

Recovery trends in discretionary categories are healthy: Our discretionary universe is expected to clock 11/2% revenue/EBITDA growth YoY (partly...

HDFC Securities

Consumer Discretionary Margin Recovery to Lag that in Topline

Recovery trends in discretionary categories are healthy; Our discretionary universe is expected to clock 11/2% revenue/EBITDA growth YoY (partly...

HDFC Securities

Screening for GEMs: April 2022

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

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