Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Independent Insight Provider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-intecc-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">7747 Asahi Intec</a> announced FY06/25 OP guidance of Y25.2bn, close to street expectations, pointing to substantial upside. GPM guidance has increased and continuation of strong 4Q YoY sales is expected.</li>
<li>Seven days of short interest outstanding could lead to a short squeeze; Earnings briefing tomorrow reinforcing these trends should be a further catalyst for upside.</li>
<li>With short interest now low and limited potential for further gains after the recent rebound, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olympus-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">7733 Olympus</a> appears to be losing momentum, especially with China sales continuing to flag.</li>
</ul>



7747 Asahi Intec announced FY06/25 OP guidance of Y25.2bn, close to street expectations, pointing to substantial upside. GPM guidance has increased and continuation of strong 4Q YoY sales is expected.
Seven days of short interest outstanding could lead to a short squeeze; Earnings briefing tomorrow reinforcing these trends should be a further catalyst for upside.
With short interest now low and limited potential for further gains after the recent rebound, 7733 Olympus appears to be losing momentum, especially with China sales continuing to flag.


Long 7747 Asahi Intec | Short 7733 Olympus

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-intecc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15915:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)</a> reported strong FY24 result, with all key parameters beating estimates. FY24 revenue exceeds ¥100B, a significant milestone of the mid-term management plan.</li>
<li>For FY25, Asahi Intecc has guided for revenue of ¥117B (up 9% YoY), operating profit of ¥25B (up 14% YoY), and net profit of ¥19B (up 19% YoY).</li>
<li>Growth will be driven by increase in overseas revenue in medical division despite the impact of stronger yen. Positive environment and strong demand enhance conviction on the long-term growth prospect.</li>
</ul>



Asahi Intecc (7747 JP) reported strong FY24 result, with all key parameters beating estimates. FY24 revenue exceeds ¥100B, a significant milestone of the mid-term management plan.
For FY25, Asahi Intecc has guided for revenue of ¥117B (up 9% YoY), operating profit of ¥25B (up 14% YoY), and net profit of ¥19B (up 19% YoY).
Growth will be driven by increase in overseas revenue in medical division despite the impact of stronger yen. Positive environment and strong demand enhance conviction on the long-term growth prospect.


2024 High Conviction Update: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- FY24 Result Tops Guidance; Positive Outlook

<ul>
<li>In Q3FY24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-intecc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15915:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)</a> reported 8% YoY increase in revenue to ¥26B, ahead of estimate of ¥24B, mainly driven by the exchange rate impact of higher foreign currencies.</li>
<li>Higher SG&amp;A expenses impacted the profitability. Q3FY24 operating profit margin declined to 23.3% from 26.6% in Q3FY23, while net profit margin decreased to 16.0% from 18.5% during the same time.</li>
<li>In Q4FY24, revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY to ¥19.6B. Operating and net profits are anticipated to plunge 74% and 26%, YoY to ¥417M and ¥832M, respectively.</li>
</ul>


In Q3FY24, Asahi Intecc (7747 JP) reported 8% YoY increase in revenue to ¥26B, ahead of estimate of ¥24B, mainly driven by the exchange rate impact of higher foreign currencies.
Higher SG&amp;A expenses impacted the profitability. Q3FY24 operating profit margin declined to 23.3% from 26.6% in Q3FY23, while net profit margin decreased to 16.0% from 18.5% during the same time.
In Q4FY24, revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY to ¥19.6B. Operating and net profits are anticipated to plunge 74% and 26%, YoY to ¥417M and ¥832M, respectively.


2024 High Conviction Update: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- Q3FY24 Margins Take Hit; Tepid Q4 Expected

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-intecc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15915:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)</a> is poised for multi-year growth through strong market demand for its technically superior guidewires, market leadership positioning, new product launches, and direct marketing initiatives.</li>
<li>In FY24, Asahi Intecc aims to achieve revenue of ¥100B (+11% YoY), a significant milestone. The company targets revenue of ¥110B and an operating profit margin of 23–25% in FY26.</li>
<li>Asahi Intecc is expected to be a continued beneficiary of global procedure volume recovery. The company is likely to achieve its medium-term business plan ahead of schedule.</li>
</ul>



Asahi Intecc (7747 JP) is poised for multi-year growth through strong market demand for its technically superior guidewires, market leadership positioning, new product launches, and direct marketing initiatives.
In FY24, Asahi Intecc aims to achieve revenue of ¥100B (+11% YoY), a significant milestone. The company targets revenue of ¥110B and an operating profit margin of 23–25% in FY26.
Asahi Intecc is expected to be a continued beneficiary of global procedure volume recovery. The company is likely to achieve its medium-term business plan ahead of schedule.


2024 High Conviction: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- Procedure Volume Recovery to Accelerate Growth

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks that have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in May.</li>
<li>The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of May where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>Shorts have been built up on all the stocks over the last few months and the extent of the positioning varies across stocks.</li>
</ul>


There are a bunch of stocks that have underperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in May.
The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of May where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
Shorts have been built up on all the stocks over the last few months and the extent of the positioning varies across stocks.


Japan - Increase in Shorts & Potential Passive Selling in May

Japan

ASAHI INTECC CO., LTD. manufactures medical tools as well as both medical and industrial-use stainless wire rope.  The Company's main products include catheters, guidewires, and miniature coils for endoscopic devices.

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Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)

Long 7747 Asahi Intec | Short 7733 Olympus

Asahi Intec announces strong FY06/25 guidance, potential for short squeeze and upside; Olympus losing momentum with declining domestic sales.

Andrew Jackson

2024 High Conviction Update: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- FY24 Result Tops Guidance; Positive Outlook

Asahi Intecc reported ¥100B revenue for FY24, a significant milestone of the mid-term management plan. Even after excluding Fx, the company sees...

Tina Banerjee

2024 High Conviction Update: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- Q3FY24 Margins Take Hit; Tepid Q4 Expected

Asahi Intecc reports 8% YoY revenue growth in Q3, but higher SG&A expenses dented profitability. Q4FY24 revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY with...

Tina Banerjee

2024 High Conviction: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- Procedure Volume Recovery to Accelerate Growth

Asahi Intecc is poised for double-digit sales growth through FY26, driven by strong market demand for guidewires, market leadership positioning,...

Tina Banerjee

Japan - Increase in Shorts & Potential Passive Selling in May

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in May. Shorts have increased on all stocks and the extent of...

Brian Freitas

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Long 7747 Asahi Intec | Short 7733 Olympus

​Asahi Intec announces strong FY06/25 guidance, potential for short squeeze and upside; Olympus losing momentum with declining domestic sales.

Andrew Jackson

2024 High Conviction Update: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- FY24 Result Tops Guidance; Positive Outlook

Asahi Intecc reported ¥100B revenue for FY24, a significant milestone of the mid-term management plan. Even after excluding Fx, the company sees...

Tina Banerjee

2024 High Conviction Update: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- Q3FY24 Margins Take Hit; Tepid Q4 Expected

​Asahi Intecc reports 8% YoY revenue growth in Q3, but higher SG&A expenses dented profitability. Q4FY24 revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY with...

Tina Banerjee

2024 High Conviction: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- Procedure Volume Recovery to Accelerate Growth

Asahi Intecc is poised for double-digit sales growth through FY26, driven by strong market demand for guidewires, market leadership positioning,...

Tina Banerjee

Japan - Increase in Shorts & Potential Passive Selling in May

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in May. Shorts have increased on all stocks and the extent of...

Brian Freitas

Asahi Intec announces strong FY06/25 guidance, potential for short squeeze and upside; Olympus losing momentum with declining domestic sales.

Asahi Intecc reports 8% YoY revenue growth in Q3, but higher SG&A expenses dented profitability. Q4FY24 revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY with...