New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Arvida Group's (ARV) board has unanimously recommended a NZ$1.70 per share takeover bid from Stonepeak, a US based infrastructure and real assets investor.</li><li>The bid represents a ~+65% premium to its previous close, ~0.83x last reported net tangible assets (NTA; NZ$2.05) and on 24 month forward consensus estimates ~18x EV/Annuity EBITDA and ~24x annuity PE. </li><li>Stonepeak has completed its due diligence on ARV and the bid is now conditional on regulatory and shareholder approvals. </li></ul>

Arvida Group's (ARV) board has unanimously recommended a NZ$1.70 per share takeover bid from Stonepeak, a US based infrastructure and real assets investor.The bid represents a ~+65% premium to its previous close, ~0.83x last reported net tangible assets (NTA; NZ$2.05) and on 24 month forward consensus estimates ~18x EV/Annuity EBITDA and ~24x annuity PE. Stonepeak has completed its due diligence on ARV and the bid is now conditional on regulatory and shareholder approvals. 

<ul><li>After the kerfuffle of Ryman Healthcare's (RYM) result, Arvida Group's (ARV) result provided only incremental news and mostly good news.</li><li>ARV set out an ambition to close what it considers a major gap between the market's perception of its value (~0.5x net tangible assets) and its own view.</li><li>The strategy consists of: (1) leave no stone unturned to reduce core debt, (2) look for potential capital partners and other strategic options, and (3) review pricing and reduce costs. </li></ul>

After the kerfuffle of Ryman Healthcare's (RYM) result, Arvida Group's (ARV) result provided only incremental news and mostly good news.ARV set out an ambition to close what it considers a major gap between the market's perception of its value (~0.5x net tangible assets) and its own view.The strategy consists of: (1) leave no stone unturned to reduce core debt, (2) look for potential capital partners and other strategic options, and (3) review pricing and reduce costs. 

Arvida Group - Incremental Steps in the Right Direction

<ul><li>Arvida Group's (ARV) semi-annual investor update was on the whole, positive. It delivered: (1) strong resale gains, driven by both solid unit sales and margins, and (2) illustrated net debt was tracking better than our expectations. </li><li>We were also encouraged by the reduced FY25 build guidance, suggesting a focus on reducing debt and realising the potential of its Arena acquisition.</li><li>A sensible prioritisation given how the stock is currently valued. </li></ul>

Arvida Group's (ARV) semi-annual investor update was on the whole, positive. It delivered: (1) strong resale gains, driven by both solid unit sales and margins, and (2) illustrated net debt was tracking better than our expectations. We were also encouraged by the reduced FY25 build guidance, suggesting a focus on reducing debt and realising the potential of its Arena acquisition.A sensible prioritisation given how the stock is currently valued. 

Arvida Group - Strong 2H Resales, Sensibly Lowered Build Rate

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<li>It takes approximately 15 years for a retirement village to be built and reach cash flow maturity, with an additional several decades of operational activity to follow.</li>
<li>The Aged Care sector operates on a time scale, where impacts from climate change are highly relevant.</li>
<li>In addition, the elderly are at the centre of the business model, some of the most vulnerable members of society. </li>
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It takes approximately 15 years for a retirement village to be built and reach cash flow maturity, with an additional several decades of operational activity to follow.
The Aged Care sector operates on a time scale, where impacts from climate change are highly relevant.
In addition, the elderly are at the centre of the business model, some of the most vulnerable members of society. 






<ul><li>The proposed acquisition of Arvida Group (ARV) by Stonepeak Alps BidCo injected meaningful optimism into the listed aged care sector.</li><li>And rightly so. The aged care sector is suffering from a combination of (1) a lack of confidence in the business model driven by years of weak cash generation; (2) concerns around house prices and interest rates; and (3) an overly negative outlook on care profitability.</li><li>Whilst all issues are understandable, we view them as largely backward looking. </li></ul>

The proposed acquisition of Arvida Group (ARV) by Stonepeak Alps BidCo injected meaningful optimism into the listed aged care sector.And rightly so. The aged care sector is suffering from a combination of (1) a lack of confidence in the business model driven by years of weak cash generation; (2) concerns around house prices and interest rates; and (3) an overly negative outlook on care profitability.Whilst all issues are understandable, we view them as largely backward looking. 

Aged Care Sector - M&A Arrives to Aged Care

New Zealand

Arvida Group Ltd owns and operates senior care living facilities in New Zealand.

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Arvida (ARV NZ)

Arvida Group - Takeover Offer Returns

Arvida Group's (ARV) board has unanimously recommended a NZ$1.70 per share takeover bid from Stonepeak, a US based infrastructure and real assets...

Forsyth Barr

Arvida Group - Incremental Steps in the Right Direction

After the kerfuffle of Ryman Healthcare's (RYM) result, Arvida Group's (ARV) result provided only incremental news and mostly good news.

Forsyth Barr

Arvida Group - Strong 2H Resales, Sensibly Lowered Build Rate

Arvida Group's (ARV) semi-annual investor update was on the whole, positive. It delivered: (1) strong resale gains, driven by both solid unit sales...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector

It takes approximately 15 years for a retirement village to be built and reach cash flow maturity, with an additional several decades of...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector - M&A Arrives to Aged Care

The proposed acquisition of Arvida Group (ARV) by Stonepeak Alps BidCo injected meaningful optimism into the listed aged care sector.

Forsyth Barr

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