New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Argosy (ARG) reported a soft 1H25, in line with our expectations.</li><li>Higher tax from depreciation rule changes was the key drag, with adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) -9% on the prior year.</li><li>ARG reiterated its guidance of 6.65 cents per share, which is c.104% of our forecast FY25 AFFO, above its policy of 85%–100%. </li></ul>

Argosy (ARG) reported a soft 1H25, in line with our expectations.Higher tax from depreciation rule changes was the key drag, with adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) -9% on the prior year.ARG reiterated its guidance of 6.65 cents per share, which is c.104% of our forecast FY25 AFFO, above its policy of 85%–100%. 

Argosy - 1H25 — Bolstering the Development Pipeline

<ul><li>Argosy (ARG) reported flat Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO), which was slightly ahead of our expectations.</li><li>The result was boosted by NZ$2.3m of maintenance capex that had been expensed in the prior period, being deemed to be recovered/income upon sale of the assets.</li><li>This doesn't feel like high quality earnings to us, and adjusting for this the result was slightly below our forecast. </li></ul>

Argosy (ARG) reported flat Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO), which was slightly ahead of our expectations.The result was boosted by NZ$2.3m of maintenance capex that had been expensed in the prior period, being deemed to be recovered/income upon sale of the assets.This doesn't feel like high quality earnings to us, and adjusting for this the result was slightly below our forecast. 

Argosy - FY24 Result — Paddling Fast to Stand Still

<ul><li>Argosy (ARG) reported a solid 1H24 result, broadly in line with 1H23 when normalising for one-offs in the prior period.</li><li>Higher interest costs were offset by solid top-line growth and lower maintenance capex.</li><li>Non-core asset sales are keeping gearing in check, while also providing balance sheet headroom for ARG to progress its Neilson Street redevelopment. </li></ul>

Argosy (ARG) reported a solid 1H24 result, broadly in line with 1H23 when normalising for one-offs in the prior period.Higher interest costs were offset by solid top-line growth and lower maintenance capex.Non-core asset sales are keeping gearing in check, while also providing balance sheet headroom for ARG to progress its Neilson Street redevelopment. 

Argosy - 1H24 Result — Smooth Sailing for Now

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>October was a solid month for NZ listed property vehicles (LPVs).</li><li>The Fast-track Approvals Bill breathed some life into Winton's (WIN) Sunfield project, after having its initial approval pathway declined, while Kiwi Property's (KPG) Drury development and Precinct's (PCT) downtown carpark project were both included in the bill.</li><li>Six companies are reporting interim results in November, where we expect higher interest and tax bills to outweigh top-line rental growth across most of the sector. </li></ul>

October was a solid month for NZ listed property vehicles (LPVs).The Fast-track Approvals Bill breathed some life into Winton's (WIN) Sunfield project, after having its initial approval pathway declined, while Kiwi Property's (KPG) Drury development and Precinct's (PCT) downtown carpark project were both included in the bill.Six companies are reporting interim results in November, where we expect higher interest and tax bills to outweigh top-line rental growth across most of the sector. 

Real Estate Reflections - Fast Track to Reporting Season

<ul><li>Following a historically strong two months in July and August, the NZ listed property vehicles (LPVs) gave back some of their gains in September.</li><li>We continue to expect the sector to perform well in what is likely to be a period of sustained interest rate cuts.</li><li>There will be some bumps along the way, as prior cycles have shown weak economic activity eventually flows through to higher vacancy and lower rents. </li></ul>

Following a historically strong two months in July and August, the NZ listed property vehicles (LPVs) gave back some of their gains in September.We continue to expect the sector to perform well in what is likely to be a period of sustained interest rate cuts.There will be some bumps along the way, as prior cycles have shown weak economic activity eventually flows through to higher vacancy and lower rents. 

Real Estate Reflections - Snakes and Ladders

New Zealand

Argosy Property Limited invests in and manages retail, commercial and industrial properties in New Zealand.

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Argosy Property (ARG NZ)

Argosy - 1H25 — Bolstering the Development Pipeline

Argosy (ARG) reported a soft 1H25, in line with our expectations.. Higher tax from depreciation rule changes was the key drag, with adjusted funds...

Forsyth Barr

Argosy - FY24 Result — Paddling Fast to Stand Still

The result was boosted by NZ$2.3m of maintenance capex that had been expensed in the prior period, being deemed to be recovered/income upon sale of...

Forsyth Barr

Argosy - 1H24 Result — Smooth Sailing for Now

Argosy (ARG) reported a solid 1H24 result, broadly in line with 1H23 when normalising for one-offs in the prior period. Higher interest costs were...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - Fast Track to Reporting Season

Our preferred LPVs are hospital landlord Vital Healthcare (VHP) and premium office owner PCT. We are also OUTPERFORM rated on Asset Plus (APL)...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - Snakes and Ladders

Following a historically strong two months in July and August, the NZ listed property vehicles (LPVs) gave back some of their gains in September.

Forsyth Barr

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