New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Argosy (ARG) reported a soft 1H25, in line with our expectations.</li><li>Higher tax from depreciation rule changes was the key drag, with adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) -9% on the prior year.</li><li>ARG reiterated its guidance of 6.65 cents per share, which is c.104% of our forecast FY25 AFFO, above its policy of 85%–100%. </li></ul>

Argosy (ARG) reported a soft 1H25, in line with our expectations.Higher tax from depreciation rule changes was the key drag, with adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) -9% on the prior year.ARG reiterated its guidance of 6.65 cents per share, which is c.104% of our forecast FY25 AFFO, above its policy of 85%–100%. 

Argosy - 1H25 — Bolstering the Development Pipeline

<ul><li>Argosy (ARG) reported flat Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO), which was slightly ahead of our expectations.</li><li>The result was boosted by NZ$2.3m of maintenance capex that had been expensed in the prior period, being deemed to be recovered/income upon sale of the assets.</li><li>This doesn't feel like high quality earnings to us, and adjusting for this the result was slightly below our forecast. </li></ul>

Argosy (ARG) reported flat Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO), which was slightly ahead of our expectations.The result was boosted by NZ$2.3m of maintenance capex that had been expensed in the prior period, being deemed to be recovered/income upon sale of the assets.This doesn't feel like high quality earnings to us, and adjusting for this the result was slightly below our forecast. 

Argosy - FY24 Result — Paddling Fast to Stand Still

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Property sector accounts for around 37% of global carbon dioxide emissions, with variations in sustainability progress across New Zealand's listed property companies.</li><li>Disclosures broadly meet regulatory requirements but often lack a clear narrative on how climate risks and opportunities may affect future outlooks.</li><li>Greenhouse gas inventories reflect the maturity of reporting practices more than climate transition risks, with inconsistencies in Scope 3 emissions reporting.</li></ul>

The Property sector accounts for around 37% of global carbon dioxide emissions, with variations in sustainability progress across New Zealand's listed property companies.Disclosures broadly meet regulatory requirements but often lack a clear narrative on how climate risks and opportunities may affect future outlooks.Greenhouse gas inventories reflect the maturity of reporting practices more than climate transition risks, with inconsistencies in Scope 3 emissions reporting.

Insights from Climate Disclosures Property Sector

<ul>
<li>January was a solid start to 2025 for the listed property sector.</li>
<li>While we had expected 2024 to be an inflection year for the sector, sticky inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates had other ideas.</li>
<li>We still remain constructive on the sector in 2025. </li>
</ul>


January was a solid start to 2025 for the listed property sector.
While we had expected 2024 to be an inflection year for the sector, sticky inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates had other ideas.
We still remain constructive on the sector in 2025. 


Real Estate Reflections - Five Themes for 2025

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>November was a soft month for the property sector as interest rate volatility continued.</li><li>1H25 results were largely as expected with most companies seeing: (1) slight vacancy rise, softening tenant demand and slowing market rent growth, reflecting the economic backdrop, (2) debt costs beginning to decline, and (3) asset values and cap rates stabilising. We expect these themes will continue to play out over the next year.</li><li>While the property sector continues to trade at compressed spreads to long-bond yields, it is trading on wider yields than some defensive peers and a lower earnings multiple than the broader market. </li></ul>

November was a soft month for the property sector as interest rate volatility continued.1H25 results were largely as expected with most companies seeing: (1) slight vacancy rise, softening tenant demand and slowing market rent growth, reflecting the economic backdrop, (2) debt costs beginning to decline, and (3) asset values and cap rates stabilising. We expect these themes will continue to play out over the next year.While the property sector continues to trade at compressed spreads to long-bond yields, it is trading on wider yields than some defensive peers and a lower earnings multiple than the broader market. 

Real Estate Reflections - From One Cycle to the Next

New Zealand

Argosy Property Limited invests in and manages retail, commercial and industrial properties in New Zealand.

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Argosy Property (ARG NZ)

Argosy - 1H25 — Bolstering the Development Pipeline

Argosy (ARG) reported a soft 1H25, in line with our expectations.. Higher tax from depreciation rule changes was the key drag, with adjusted funds...

Forsyth Barr

Argosy - FY24 Result — Paddling Fast to Stand Still

The result was boosted by NZ$2.3m of maintenance capex that had been expensed in the prior period, being deemed to be recovered/income upon sale of...

Forsyth Barr

Insights from Climate Disclosures Property Sector

The Property sector accounts for around 37% of global carbon dioxide emissions, with variations in sustainability progress across New Zealand's...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - Five Themes for 2025

While we had expected 2024 to be an inflection year for the sector, sticky inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates had other ideas.

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - From One Cycle to the Next

While the property sector continues to trade at compressed spreads to long-bond yields, it is trading on wider yields than some defensive peers and...

Forsyth Barr

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)