Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>AppLovin's latest earnings for the third quarter ending September 2024 provides a comprehensive overview of the company's performance, strategic initiatives, and future growth prospects.</li><li>The company reported strong financial metrics with total revenue reaching $1.2 billion, marking a 39% year-over-year increase.</li><li>Adjusted EBITDA also rose significantly to $722 million, reflecting a 72% increase from the same period last year, and achieving a 60% adjusted EBITDA margin.</li></ul>

AppLovin's latest earnings for the third quarter ending September 2024 provides a comprehensive overview of the company's performance, strategic initiatives, and future growth prospects.The company reported strong financial metrics with total revenue reaching $1.2 billion, marking a 39% year-over-year increase.Adjusted EBITDA also rose significantly to $722 million, reflecting a 72% increase from the same period last year, and achieving a 60% adjusted EBITDA margin.

AppLovin Corporation: Expansion into E-commerce As A Strategic Growth Enabler!  - Major Drivers

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dollar-tree-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10913:1" rel="noopener">Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> after the close of trading on 15 November.</li>
<li>Passive trackers are expected to buy over US$1.6bn in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> while they will sell around US$250m in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dollar-tree-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10913:1" rel="noopener">Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> is the biggest tech name outside the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> now and is a high probability inclusion to the index at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>



AppLovin (APP US) will replace Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US) in the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) after the close of trading on 15 November.
Passive trackers are expected to buy over US$1.6bn in AppLovin (APP US) while they will sell around US$250m in Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US). 

AppLovin (APP US) is the biggest tech name outside the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) now and is a high probability inclusion to the index at the December rebalance.


NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Lovin' It as AppLovin (APP) Replaces Dollar Tree (DLTR)

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-global-management-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28770:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Global Management (APO US)</a> are the main candidates for addition by transition as they are passing the estimated transition threshold and have strong eligibility metrics.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-pacific-land-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28693:1" rel="noopener">Texas Pacific Land (TPL US)</a> is the main candidate for addition by migration - despite failing eligibility - due to its significant distance above the minimum S&amp;P500 mcap threshold. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emcor-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20703:1" rel="noopener">Emcor Group (EME US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lennox-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16420:1" rel="noopener">Lennox International (LII US)</a> are the next candidates for addition by migration with both passing eligibility and adequate distance above the mcap threshold. </li>
</ul>



AppLovin (APP US) and Apollo Global Management (APO US) are the main candidates for addition by transition as they are passing the estimated transition threshold and have strong eligibility metrics.  

Texas Pacific Land (TPL US) is the main candidate for addition by migration - despite failing eligibility - due to its significant distance above the minimum S&amp;P500 mcap threshold. 

Emcor Group (EME US) and Lennox International (LII US) are the next candidates for addition by migration with both passing eligibility and adequate distance above the mcap threshold. 


S&P500 December 2024 Forecasts: APP, APO and TPL Leading the Pack

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> has secured a place in the index and is no longer a deletion candidate thanks to the recent methodology changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)</a> are the main candidates for direct addition following their recent stock price surge.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dollar-tree-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10913:1" rel="noopener">Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US)</a> is the favorable candidate for direct deletion in December with an additional but negligible probability of fast-exit in November.</li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (ARM US) has secured a place in the index and is no longer a deletion candidate thanks to the recent methodology changes.

AppLovin (APP US) and Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) are the main candidates for direct addition following their recent stock price surge.

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US) is the favorable candidate for direct deletion in December with an additional but negligible probability of fast-exit in November.


Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecasts (Part 2): APP & MSTR Poised for Entry; DLTR & SMCI Set for Exit

<ul><li>AppLovin's earnings for the second quarter of 2024 demonstrated a balanced view of their company's performance, represented through CEO Adam Foroughi, CFO Matt Stumpf, and Head of Investor Relations David Hsiao’s comprehensive discussions on their business metrics and strategic directions.</li><li>AppLovin's financials for the quarter showed significant growth, with total revenue reaching $1.08 billion, demonstrating a 44% increase year-over-year.</li><li>The company’s adjusted EBITDA was reported at $601 million, translating to an impressive 56% adjusted EBITDA margin, marking an 80% increase compared to the same period last year.</li></ul>

AppLovin's earnings for the second quarter of 2024 demonstrated a balanced view of their company's performance, represented through CEO Adam Foroughi, CFO Matt Stumpf, and Head of Investor Relations David Hsiao’s comprehensive discussions on their business metrics and strategic directions.AppLovin's financials for the quarter showed significant growth, with total revenue reaching $1.08 billion, demonstrating a 44% increase year-over-year.The company’s adjusted EBITDA was reported at $601 million, translating to an impressive 56% adjusted EBITDA margin, marking an 80% increase compared to the same period last year.

AppLovin Corporation: How Are They Expanding Into New Verticals? - Major Drivers

United States

AppLovin Corporation provides software solutions. The Company offers an end-to-end software that optimizes monetization, and uses machine learning to make data-driven marketing decisions for profitable growth. AppLovin serves clients worldwide.

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AppLovin (APP US)

AppLovin Corporation: Expansion into E-commerce As A Strategic Growth Enabler! - Major Drivers

AppLovin's latest earnings for the third quarter ending September 2024 provides a comprehensive overview of the company's performance, strategic...

Baptista Research

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Lovin' It as AppLovin (APP) Replaces Dollar Tree (DLTR)

AppLovin (APP US) will replace Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US) in the Nasdaq100 Index after the close on 15 November. Passive trackers need to buy...

Brian Freitas

S&P500 December 2024 Forecasts: APP, APO and TPL Leading the Pack

AppLovin and Apollo Global Management are the main candidates for addition by transition while Texas Pacific Land is the main candidate for...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecasts (Part 2): APP & MSTR Poised for Entry; DLTR & SMCI Set for Exit

Fast-Exit has been announced and will be implemented for DLTR at the close of 15 November 2024 where the stock will be deleted from Nasdaq100 and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

AppLovin Corporation: How Are They Expanding Into New Verticals? - Major Drivers

AppLovin's earnings for the second quarter of 2024 demonstrated a balanced view of their company's performance, represented through CEO Adam...

Baptista Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

AppLovin Corporation: Expansion into E-commerce As A Strategic Growth Enabler! - Major Drivers

AppLovin's latest earnings for the third quarter ending September 2024 provides a comprehensive overview of the company's performance, strategic...

Baptista Research

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Lovin' It as AppLovin (APP) Replaces Dollar Tree (DLTR)

AppLovin (APP US) will replace Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US) in the Nasdaq100 Index after the close on 15 November. Passive trackers need to buy...

Brian Freitas

S&P500 December 2024 Forecasts: APP, APO and TPL Leading the Pack

​AppLovin and Apollo Global Management are the main candidates for addition by transition while Texas Pacific Land is the main candidate for...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecasts (Part 2): APP & MSTR Poised for Entry; DLTR & SMCI Set for Exit

Fast-Exit has been announced and will be implemented for DLTR at the close of 15 November 2024 where the stock will be deleted from Nasdaq100 and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

AppLovin Corporation: How Are They Expanding Into New Verticals? - Major Drivers

AppLovin's earnings for the second quarter of 2024 demonstrated a balanced view of their company's performance, represented through CEO Adam...

Baptista Research

AppLovin and Apollo Global Management are the main candidates for addition by transition while Texas Pacific Land is the main candidate for...