Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Applied Industrial Tech / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Applied Industrial Technologies ended its fiscal year 2024 with strong financial and operational results, despite facing a challenging and uncertain market.</li><li>The company's focus on executing strategic initiatives and maintaining strong customer relationships played a key role in these achievements.</li><li>This assessment provides an objective overview of the company's latest quarterly performance, touching on both positive developments and areas that require attention.</li></ul>

Applied Industrial Technologies ended its fiscal year 2024 with strong financial and operational results, despite facing a challenging and uncertain market.The company's focus on executing strategic initiatives and maintaining strong customer relationships played a key role in these achievements.This assessment provides an objective overview of the company's latest quarterly performance, touching on both positive developments and areas that require attention.

Applied Industrial Technologies: Initiation Of Coverage - Expansion of Engineered Solutions & Major Drivers

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday after the close, the S&amp;P DJI Index Committee announced changes to the S&amp;P 100, S&amp;P500, S&amp;P MidCap400, and S&amp;P SmallCap600. Changes happen at the close 15 March 2024.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/super-micro-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7921:1" rel="noopener">Super Micro Computer (SMCI US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deckers-outdoor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3028:1" rel="noopener">Deckers Outdoor (DECK US)</a> replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zions-bancorporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9490:1" rel="noopener">Zions Bancorporation (ZION US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whirlpool-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1538:1" rel="noopener">Whirlpool Corp (WHR US)</a> in the S&amp;P500. 2 changes to 400, 6 to 600.</li>
<li>The immediate reaction was to send SMCI up 12.5%. That's shortsighted. It pays to count the pennies involved. There are a LOT of pennies.</li>
</ul>


On Friday after the close, the S&amp;P DJI Index Committee announced changes to the S&amp;P 100, S&amp;P500, S&amp;P MidCap400, and S&amp;P SmallCap600. Changes happen at the close 15 March 2024.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI US) and Deckers Outdoor (DECK US) replace Zions Bancorporation (ZION US) and Whirlpool Corp (WHR US) in the S&amp;P500. 2 changes to 400, 6 to 600.
The immediate reaction was to send SMCI up 12.5%. That's shortsighted. It pays to count the pennies involved. There are a LOT of pennies.


S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal - It's Not The Trade You Think

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/super-micro-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7921:1" rel="noopener">Super Micro Computer (SMCI US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deckers-outdoor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3028:1" rel="noopener">Deckers Outdoor (DECK US)</a> replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whirlpool-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1538:1" rel="noopener">Whirlpool Corp (WHR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zions-bancorporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9490:1" rel="noopener">Zions Bancorporation (ZION US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> at the close on 15 March.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of inclusions, deletions and migrations across the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, the S&amp;P Midcap 400 Index, and the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index.</li>
<li>The largest flows will be in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> adds and the largest impact in the adds to the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index.</li>
</ul>



Super Micro Computer (SMCI US) and Deckers Outdoor (DECK US) replace Whirlpool Corp (WHR US) and Zions Bancorporation (ZION US) in the S&amp;P 500 INDEX at the close on 15 March.
There are a bunch of inclusions, deletions and migrations across the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), the S&amp;P Midcap 400 Index, and the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index.
The largest flows will be in the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) adds and the largest impact in the adds to the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index.


S&P500 Index Rebalance: SPCY Additions & Large Impact

<ul>
<li>The last week was a very busy one. The coming week has some announcements and implementations but is a relatively quieter one.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index changes for March will be implemented at the close on Friday, the 8th.</li>
<li>Another week of inflows for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US)</a> ETF as creations cross US$2bn for 2024. ETF AUM has gone from US$420m in 2021 to US$11bn now!</li>
</ul>


The last week was a very busy one. The coming week has some announcements and implementations but is a relatively quieter one.
The SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index changes for March will be implemented at the close on Friday, the 8th.
Another week of inflows for the iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US) ETF as creations cross US$2bn for 2024. ETF AUM has gone from US$420m in 2021 to US$11bn now!


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>More restrictive Fed policy than expected is disproportionately hitting small/mid-caps which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. This suggests we could see further consolidation for small- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Large-Caps (SPX, Nasdaq 100, DJI) remain bullish on continued strength from mega-caps (AMZN, META, NVDA,MSFT). Our bullish outlook remains appropriate, but we discuss what would lead us to get cautious.</li>
<li>1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields testing resistance today and failing. U.S. dollar (DXY) also testing key resistance at $104.60. We also push back on the bad breadth argument (again).</li>
</ul>


More restrictive Fed policy than expected is disproportionately hitting small/mid-caps which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. This suggests we could see further consolidation for small- and mid-caps.
Large-Caps (SPX, Nasdaq 100, DJI) remain bullish on continued strength from mega-caps (AMZN, META, NVDA,MSFT). Our bullish outlook remains appropriate, but we discuss what would lead us to get cautious.
1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields testing resistance today and failing. U.S. dollar (DXY) also testing key resistance at $104.60. We also push back on the bad breadth argument (again).


Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

United States

Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. distributes bearings and seals, power transmission and fluid power components, hydraulic and pneumatic components, industrial rubber products, linear components, and general maintenance items. The Company also provides engineering design and systems integration services, as well as mechanical, fabricated rubber, and fluid power shop services.

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Applied Industrial Tech (AIT US)

Applied Industrial Technologies: Initiation Of Coverage - Expansion of Engineered Solutions & Major Drivers

Applied Industrial Technologies ended its fiscal year 2024 with strong financial and operational results, despite facing a challenging and...

Baptista Research

S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal - It's Not The Trade You Think

The S&P DJI Index Committee announced the March index rebals. Everybody is looking at SMCI because it has run hard til now. That's missing the...

Travis Lundy

S&P500 Index Rebalance: SPCY Additions & Large Impact

There are bunch of adds, deletes and migrations for the SnP 500/400/600 indices in March. The largest inflows are on the SP500 adds but the largest...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar. 1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields $TNX failing at shorter-term resistances today; $DXY below...

Vermilion Research

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Applied Industrial Technologies: Initiation Of Coverage - Expansion of Engineered Solutions & Major Drivers

Applied Industrial Technologies ended its fiscal year 2024 with strong financial and operational results, despite facing a challenging and...

Baptista Research

S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal - It's Not The Trade You Think

​The S&P DJI Index Committee announced the March index rebals. Everybody is looking at SMCI because it has run hard til now. That's missing the...

Travis Lundy

S&P500 Index Rebalance: SPCY Additions & Large Impact

There are bunch of adds, deletes and migrations for the SnP 500/400/600 indices in March. The largest inflows are on the SP500 adds but the largest...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar. 1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields $TNX failing at shorter-term resistances today; $DXY below...

Vermilion Research

The S&P DJI Index Committee announced the March index rebals. Everybody is looking at SMCI because it has run hard til now. That's missing the...