Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. </li>
<li>Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. </li>
<li>Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. </li>
</ul>


The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. 
Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. 
Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. 


EQD | US Election -  Hedge Considerations

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Given UMC's partnership with Intel to produce chips using Intel's 12nm fab capacity, we believe latest Intel developments increase the opportunity for Intel Foundry to take a stake in UMC.</li>
<li>Intel's Foundry business makes a strong partner for UMC who has deep foundry experience and talent, but doesn't have leading edge fabs nor the balance sheet to build them.</li>
<li>If Intel Foundry Services spins out or Intel strengthens its balance sheet through a deal with Qualcomm/Apollo, the potential for a deeper UMC-Intel Foundry partnership becomes even more compelling.</li>
</ul>


Given UMC's partnership with Intel to produce chips using Intel's 12nm fab capacity, we believe latest Intel developments increase the opportunity for Intel Foundry to take a stake in UMC.
Intel's Foundry business makes a strong partner for UMC who has deep foundry experience and talent, but doesn't have leading edge fabs nor the balance sheet to build them.
If Intel Foundry Services spins out or Intel strengthens its balance sheet through a deal with Qualcomm/Apollo, the potential for a deeper UMC-Intel Foundry partnership becomes even more compelling.


United Microelectronics: Intel Foundry Should Take a Stake; Latest News Makes This More Likely

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> is a leading beneficiary of the recovery in global Smartphone demand, and strength in Memory prices, driven by the proliferation of Gen AI demand.</li>
<li>Global Memory prices have recovered by up to +80%y/y driven by demand from hyperscaler customers for leading-technology DDR5, HBM, and other high-value-added memory products.</li>
<li>Samsung Electronics trades more than one standard deviation below its 5-year historic average trading range, a historically proved to be an excellent buying point.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is a leading beneficiary of the recovery in global Smartphone demand, and strength in Memory prices, driven by the proliferation of Gen AI demand.
Global Memory prices have recovered by up to +80%y/y driven by demand from hyperscaler customers for leading-technology DDR5, HBM, and other high-value-added memory products.
Samsung Electronics trades more than one standard deviation below its 5-year historic average trading range, a historically proved to be an excellent buying point.


Samsung Electronics (005930-KR): Quality Generative AI Play, Trading at a Discount

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.</li>
<li>Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27536:1" rel="noopener">XLP</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">XLK</a>.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.
The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.
Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the XLP and XLK.


Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Top Gainers/Loser: Taiwan Tech Stocks Hit Hard Last Week By Global AI/Tech Pullback</li>
<li>Key Events This Week: Major Earnings Week Including UMC, Mediatek, Realtek, AMD, Microsoft</li>
<li>TechChain Insights: Call with Silicon Motion; QLC NAND Emerging as Key Enabler for AI Devices </li>
</ul>


Top Gainers/Loser: Taiwan Tech Stocks Hit Hard Last Week By Global AI/Tech Pullback
Key Events This Week: Major Earnings Week Including UMC, Mediatek, Realtek, AMD, Microsoft
TechChain Insights: Call with Silicon Motion; QLC NAND Emerging as Key Enabler for AI Devices 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hit Hard By AI/Tech Pullback; Watch UMC, Mediatek, Realtek, AMD, MSFT Earnings

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

EQD | US Election - Hedge Considerations

The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

John Ley

United Microelectronics: Intel Foundry Should Take a Stake; Latest News Makes This More Likely

UMC's partnership with Intel could lead to Intel Foundry taking a stake in UMC due to Intel's latest developments and UMC's foundry experience.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Samsung Electronics (005930-KR): Quality Generative AI Play, Trading at a Discount

In this insight, we analyse Samsung Electronics with a particular focus on the global Memory and Smartphone markets, company financials and growth...

Wium Malan, CFA

Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

US$300bn tracks the Select Sector Indices. Implementation of proposed changes will set off a US$35bn trade. Apple could be bought by multiple...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hit Hard By AI/Tech Pullback; Watch UMC, Mediatek, Realtek, AMD, MSFT Earnings

A recap of last week's gainers and losers plus key events to watch out for this week and recently published research pieces.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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EQD | US Election - Hedge Considerations

​The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

John Ley

United Microelectronics: Intel Foundry Should Take a Stake; Latest News Makes This More Likely

​UMC's partnership with Intel could lead to Intel Foundry taking a stake in UMC due to Intel's latest developments and UMC's foundry experience.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Samsung Electronics (005930-KR): Quality Generative AI Play, Trading at a Discount

In this insight, we analyse Samsung Electronics with a particular focus on the global Memory and Smartphone markets, company financials and growth...

Wium Malan, CFA

Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

US$300bn tracks the Select Sector Indices. Implementation of proposed changes will set off a US$35bn trade. Apple could be bought by multiple...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hit Hard By AI/Tech Pullback; Watch UMC, Mediatek, Realtek, AMD, MSFT Earnings

A recap of last week's gainers and losers plus key events to watch out for this week and recently published research pieces.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

UMC's partnership with Intel could lead to Intel Foundry taking a stake in UMC due to Intel's latest developments and UMC's foundry experience.