Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We are re-introducing two regular posts, Monday Morning Musings and Friday Market Thinking to book-end the week, on the basis that regular postings are appreciated by readers, as well as providing a good discipline for ourselves.</li><li>Other posts will continue obviously. The idea of ‘Musings’ is that while none of the following might merit a full post of their own, they might perhaps add up to some interesting observations (of sorts).</li><li>This week, it is all back to ‘normal’ as Davos man hops on a Private Jet and returns to their snowy ancestral home to talk once again about climate change and world poverty for the World Economic Forum.</li></ul>

We are re-introducing two regular posts, Monday Morning Musings and Friday Market Thinking to book-end the week, on the basis that regular postings are appreciated by readers, as well as providing a good discipline for ourselves.Other posts will continue obviously. The idea of ‘Musings’ is that while none of the following might merit a full post of their own, they might perhaps add up to some interesting observations (of sorts).This week, it is all back to ‘normal’ as Davos man hops on a Private Jet and returns to their snowy ancestral home to talk once again about climate change and world poverty for the World Economic Forum.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UMC vs. TSMC results review comparison: Vastly different tones of results shows the large gap in industry performance for the most advanced chips products vs. the lesser advanced.</li>
<li>Japan gives mixed signals about rapidly joining U.S. chip restrictions vs. China.</li>
<li>TSMC and UMC were some of the most net-bought stocks in Taiwan by foreigners last week.</li>
</ul>


UMC vs. TSMC results review comparison: Vastly different tones of results shows the large gap in industry performance for the most advanced chips products vs. the lesser advanced.
Japan gives mixed signals about rapidly joining U.S. chip restrictions vs. China.
TSMC and UMC were some of the most net-bought stocks in Taiwan by foreigners last week.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: UMC Vs. TSMC Results' Vastly Different Performance, Japan Cautious on China Bans

<ul>
<li>Taiwan's government has passed new major tax subsidies to support semiconductor firms' R&amp;D and capex spending.</li>
<li>TSMC results will be out this afternoon; Interestingly, TSMC's CEO has been buying shares during October, November, and December.</li>
<li>Hon Hai has begun iPhone 15 trial production, and Zhengzhou is back to 100%.</li>
</ul>


Taiwan's government has passed new major tax subsidies to support semiconductor firms' R&amp;D and capex spending.
TSMC results will be out this afternoon; Interestingly, TSMC's CEO has been buying shares during October, November, and December.
Hon Hai has begun iPhone 15 trial production, and Zhengzhou is back to 100%.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Global Optimism for Semi Stocks, Taiwan's New Subsidies, TSMC CEO Buying Stock

<ul>
<li>Apple shares have fallen significantly on a weakening outloook; Yet manufacturers Quanta and Pegatron's shares still haven't reacted negatively.</li>
<li>Inventory levels appear too high across Apple's key contract manufacturers based on our analysis.</li>
<li>We see Quanta &amp; Pegatron at risk of margin pressure in 2023E with negative operating leverage potentially causing significant profit declines.</li>
</ul>


Apple shares have fallen significantly on a weakening outloook; Yet manufacturers Quanta and Pegatron's shares still haven't reacted negatively.
Inventory levels appear too high across Apple's key contract manufacturers based on our analysis.
We see Quanta &amp; Pegatron at risk of margin pressure in 2023E with negative operating leverage potentially causing significant profit declines.


Long Apple Vs. Short Quanta & Pegatron: Trade Ahead of Apple's Upcoming Earnings

<ul>
<li>TSMC's revenue could drop in the near-term due to customers cutting orders, however full year 2023E growth still likely thanks to advanced chips.</li>
<li>Samsung has guided staff internally for a major slump in its semiconductor unit's operating profit.</li>
<li>Apple is pushing for price cuts amongst its suppliers due to weak end demand for its products.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's revenue could drop in the near-term due to customers cutting orders, however full year 2023E growth still likely thanks to advanced chips.
Samsung has guided staff internally for a major slump in its semiconductor unit's operating profit.
Apple is pushing for price cuts amongst its suppliers due to weak end demand for its products.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Signs TSMC Winning the 3-Nm Battle Vs. Samsung, Apple Bargaining Down Suppliers

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

Monday Morning Musings

We are re-introducing two regular posts, Monday Morning Musings and Friday Market Thinking to book-end the week, on the basis that regular postings...

Mark Tinker

Taiwan Tech Weekly: UMC Vs. TSMC Results' Vastly Different Performance, Japan Cautious on China Bans

UMC vs. TSMC results review comparison: Vastly different tones of results shows the large gap in industry performance for the most advanced chips...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Global Optimism for Semi Stocks, Taiwan's New Subsidies, TSMC CEO Buying Stock

TSMC results will be released this afternoon. Notably, TSMC's CEO has been buying shares over the last three months. Hon Hai begins iPhone 15 trial...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Long Apple Vs. Short Quanta & Pegatron: Trade Ahead of Apple's Upcoming Earnings

We see Quanta & Pegatron at risk of margin pressure in 2023E -- With negative operating leverage potentially causing significant profit declines.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Signs TSMC Winning the 3-Nm Battle Vs. Samsung, Apple Bargaining Down Suppliers

TSMC's revenue could drop in the near-term due to customers cutting orders, however full year 2023E growth still likely thanks to advanced chips.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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