Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

Appier’s performance since listing has been mediocre with the announced offering driving the stock below its IPO price. However, we believe consensus underestimates the potential margins for the company and consider the current pricing to be attractive.

Appier’s performance since listing has been mediocre with the announced offering driving the stock below its IPO price. However, we believe consensus underestimates the potential margins for the company and consider the current pricing to be attractive.

Appier Offering – Profile Remains Attractive

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Several shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/appier-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32165:1" rel="noopener">Appier Group Inc (4180 JP)</a> are looking to sell about 11m shares of the company in an International Secondary placement.In this note, we will share our thoughts on deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Several shareholders of Appier Group Inc (4180 JP) are looking to sell about 11m shares of the company in an International Secondary placement.In this note, we will share our thoughts on deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework. 

Appier Placement - Selldown by Various Investors

Equity Bottom-Up

Appier Group reported results yesterday which were good but not great as revenue increased 31% YoY in USD terms with ARR up 38%. The company maintained the gross margin boost it saw in 2H20 and thus the results overall looked strong, but the revenue acceleration that we hoped for did not come through.

Appier Group reported results yesterday which were good but not great as revenue increased 31% YoY in USD terms with ARR up 38%. The company maintained the gross margin boost it saw in 2H20 and thus the results overall looked strong, but the revenue acceleration that we hoped for did not come through.

While we are typically sceptical about high multiple tech IPOs holding on to large first day pops, we view Appier as a high-quality name. Thus, its relatively modest first day gain so far of ~30% has us quite interested on the long side. A refreshing change from our typically banal call to run for the hills as soon as possible.

While we are typically sceptical about high multiple tech IPOs holding on to large first day pops, we view Appier as a high-quality name. Thus, its relatively modest first day gain so far of ~30% has us quite interested on the long side. A refreshing change from our typically banal call to run for the hills as soon as possible.

Appier Group IPO – First Day Trading – Worth Adding

With Coconala looking like it will open towards the high-end or above our “30-50% pop” guesstimate, we take another look into our crystal ball to check whether this is an issue that is worth hanging onto, or whether your capital might be better deployed elsewhere.

With Coconala looking like it will open towards the high-end or above our “30-50% pop” guesstimate, we take another look into our crystal ball to check whether this is an issue that is worth hanging onto, or whether your capital might be better deployed elsewhere.

Coconala IPO – First Day Trading – I See an Air Pocket in Your Future

Japan

Appier Group, Inc. provides artificial intelligence software as a service (AISaaS) services based on data-driven decisions. The Company offers data analysis for potential users predicting and acquiring, relationships building and maintaining, purchasing and action motivation, audience intelligence, and more. Appier Group serves clients across Asian.

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Appier Group (4180 JP)

Appier Offering – Profile Remains Attractive

We believe consensus underestimates the potential margins for Appier and thus consider the current pricing to be attractive.

Mio Kato

Appier Placement - Selldown by Various Investors

Several shareholders of Appier Group Inc (4180 JP) are looking to sell about 11m shares of the company in an International Secondary placement.

Sumeet Singh

Appier Group – Good but Not Great

Appier Group demonstrated strong growth and maintained reasonable gross margins but did not demonstrate the acceleration in revenue growth that we...

Mio Kato

Appier Group IPO – First Day Trading – Worth Adding

While Appier Group's revenue growth of just 24% last year appears to have led to a modest IPO debut we see signs this could accelerate to 60-80%+...

Mio Kato

Coconala IPO – First Day Trading – I See an Air Pocket in Your Future

With Coconala looking to open strong we take a look into our crystal ball to check whether this is an issue that is worth hanging onto, or whether...

Mio Kato

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