Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Appier reported 4Q21 results on Monday with revenue beating consensus by 5% and EBITDA beating by 323%. </li>
<li>The company guided for ¥17.5bn in revenue, above consensus at ¥16.2bn but significantly below our guesstimate of ¥20.8bn. </li>
<li>However, a close look at trends in the US suggest that our initial estimate remains reasonable enough.</li>
</ul>


Appier reported 4Q21 results on Monday with revenue beating consensus by 5% and EBITDA beating by 323%. 
The company guided for ¥17.5bn in revenue, above consensus at ¥16.2bn but significantly below our guesstimate of ¥20.8bn. 
However, a close look at trends in the US suggest that our initial estimate remains reasonable enough.


Appier – Baby Thrown Out With the Bathwater Number One

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AI is an exciting area of technology that has the potential to change how industries operate and consumers live their lives</li>
<li>There is a huge TAM, but it can be difficult for equity investors to gain meaningful exposure</li>
<li>We identify 22 Japanese stocks that are engaged in AI. We have two top picks </li>
</ul>


AI is an exciting area of technology that has the potential to change how industries operate and consumers live their lives
There is a huge TAM, but it can be difficult for equity investors to gain meaningful exposure
We identify 22 Japanese stocks that are engaged in AI. We have two top picks 


Artificial Intelligence | How to Play the Thematic in Japan

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, Nagoya Premier-listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chubu-steel-plate-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18535:1" rel="noopener">Chubu Steel Plate (5461 JP)</a> announced that it had applied today to be listed in Tokyo. </li>
<li>It is one of very few Japan names not listed in Tokyo. A TSE listing examination will be conducted, and there is a possibility it moves to TSE Prime.</li>
<li>There are 6 key segment transfer and listing requirements to gain a listing in TSE Prime. Chubu Steel Plate is really close.</li>
</ul>


Today, Nagoya Premier-listed Chubu Steel Plate (5461 JP) announced that it had applied today to be listed in Tokyo. 
It is one of very few Japan names not listed in Tokyo. A TSE listing examination will be conducted, and there is a possibility it moves to TSE Prime.
There are 6 key segment transfer and listing requirements to gain a listing in TSE Prime. Chubu Steel Plate is really close.


Chubu Steel Plate (5461) - Unusual TOPIX Inclusion Possibility

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  US Equities rebound led by Tech as NVIDIA +7% gets boost from MS report; China troubles persist: Country Garden suspends bond trading; Foreign Investors losing interest in China</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.5;  Yen Weakens be beyond 145 to USD, heads to 146 on widening spreads; JP M&amp;A Boom as Cos seek improvements; Dentsu Miss</li>
<li>NUGGET. Activism-Japanese Firms Expect It ! June's Reuters survey of companies in Japan revealed this fact. At the very minimum, an implicit acknowledgement that there is room for improvement</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  US Equities rebound led by Tech as NVIDIA +7% gets boost from MS report; China troubles persist: Country Garden suspends bond trading; Foreign Investors losing interest in China
JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.5;  Yen Weakens be beyond 145 to USD, heads to 146 on widening spreads; JP M&amp;A Boom as Cos seek improvements; Dentsu Miss
NUGGET. Activism-Japanese Firms Expect It ! June's Reuters survey of companies in Japan revealed this fact. At the very minimum, an implicit acknowledgement that there is room for improvement


Ohayo Japan| Tech Lead in Equity Rebound Amid Concerns; NUGGET: Activism-Japanese Firms Expect It !

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation. </li>
<li>For companies with "low liquidity" the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation. </li>
<li>Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE. In this insight, we take an early look at what could happen in April 2023.</li>
</ul>


The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation. 
For companies with "low liquidity" the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation. 
Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE. In this insight, we take an early look at what could happen in April 2023.


TOPIX Index Upweights: An Early Preview Of "The Big April Basket" 2023

Japan

Appier Group, Inc. provides artificial intelligence software as a service (AISaaS) services based on data-driven decisions. The Company offers data analysis for potential users predicting and acquiring, relationships building and maintaining, purchasing and action motivation, audience intelligence, and more. Appier Group serves clients across Asian.

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Appier Group (4180 JP)

Appier – Baby Thrown Out With the Bathwater Number One

We believe Appier has been the unfair victim of selling Mothers names, many of which are low quality. But Appier is not, and with some very...

Mio Kato

Artificial Intelligence | How to Play the Thematic in Japan

AI is an exciting area of technology that has the potential to change how industries operate and consumers live their lives. We identify 22...

Mark Chadwick

Chubu Steel Plate (5461) - Unusual TOPIX Inclusion Possibility

Chubu Steel Plate is listed in Nagoya. Only. It has applied for TSE listing. It appears to just make it over the full and tradable market cap...

Travis Lundy

Ohayo Japan| Tech Lead in Equity Rebound Amid Concerns; NUGGET: Activism-Japanese Firms Expect It !

US Big Cap Tech leads amid concerns; NKY Futures +0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.5; Yen Weakens be beyond 145 to USD, heads to 146 on widening spreads;...

Mark Chadwick

TOPIX Index Upweights: An Early Preview Of "The Big April Basket" 2023

Daiei Kankyo, Socionext, Sun* , Mercari, Loadstar Capital, Bewith, Medley, and Appier Group are our high-conviction names that could see their...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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