IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40028:1" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation (5842 JP)</a> has set its IPO price at JPY2,300-2,400 per share, 18%-29% lower than the IPO reference price range of JPY2,800-3,400 per share.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/integral-corporation-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:110936" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/integral-corporation-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111035" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/integral-corporation-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111474" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that the revised IPO price range is attractive compared to peer multiples. The re-rating of peers since the release of the prospectus also makes the offer tempting. </li>
</ul>



Integral Corporation (5842 JP) has set its IPO price at JPY2,300-2,400 per share, 18%-29% lower than the IPO reference price range of JPY2,800-3,400 per share.
We previously discussed the IPO in Integral Corporation IPO: The Bull Case, Integral Corporation IPO: The Bear Case and Integral Corporation IPO: Valuation Insights. 
Our analysis suggests that the revised IPO price range is attractive compared to peer multiples. The re-rating of peers since the release of the prospectus also makes the offer tempting. 


Integral Corporation IPO: New Price Range Is Tempting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40028:1" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation (5842 JP)</a> is an independent Japanese private equity firm seeking to raise about US$174 million. The pricing is on 4 September, and the listing is on 20 September. </li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/integral-corporation-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:110936" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/integral-corporation-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111035" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss forecasts and valuation. Our analysis suggests that the indicative IPO price range of JPY2,800-3,400 per share is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass.</li>
</ul>



Integral Corporation (5842 JP) is an independent Japanese private equity firm seeking to raise about US$174 million. The pricing is on 4 September, and the listing is on 20 September. 
We previously discussed the IPO in Integral Corporation IPO: The Bull Case and Integral Corporation IPO: The Bear Case. 
In this note, we discuss forecasts and valuation. Our analysis suggests that the indicative IPO price range of JPY2,800-3,400 per share is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass.


Integral Corporation IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40028:1" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation (5842 JP)</a> is an independent Japanese private equity firm seeking to raise about US$175 million. The pricing is on 4 September, and the listing is on 20 September. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/integral-corporation-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:110936" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rest on the declining mix of fee-earning AUM, growth driven by volatile investment income and uninspiring 1HFY22 performance in fee-related revenue growth and margin.</li>
</ul>



Integral Corporation (5842 JP) is an independent Japanese private equity firm seeking to raise about US$175 million. The pricing is on 4 September, and the listing is on 20 September. 
In Integral Corporation IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rest on the declining mix of fee-earning AUM, growth driven by volatile investment income and uninspiring 1HFY22 performance in fee-related revenue growth and margin.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40028:1" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation (5842 JP)</a> is an independent Japanese private equity firm seeking to raise about US$175 million. The pricing is on 4 September, and the listing is on 20 September. </li>
<li>Integral primarily targets investments in Japanese medium-sized companies and invests its own capital both through investments in funds under management and through direct investments.</li>
<li>The bull case rest on rising AUM, strong operating income growth, cash flow potential through material unrealised carried interest and solid potential returns on its principal investments.</li>
</ul>



Integral Corporation (5842 JP) is an independent Japanese private equity firm seeking to raise about US$175 million. The pricing is on 4 September, and the listing is on 20 September. 
Integral primarily targets investments in Japanese medium-sized companies and invests its own capital both through investments in funds under management and through direct investments.
The bull case rest on rising AUM, strong operating income growth, cash flow potential through material unrealised carried interest and solid potential returns on its principal investments.


European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 30 June, Apollo placed itself ahead of competitors with a €9.5/share cash offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applus-services-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21249:1" rel="noopener">Applus Services SA (APPS SM),</a> whose shares rose to €9.9, in the hope of a counter offer.</li>
<li>The market is capable of forcing Apollo to sweeten its proposal to reach 75% acceptances. Many risk arbitrageurs have positions in Applus and may not settle for the current premium.</li>
<li>This situation has been flagged for a while. If already long, it is worth holding for a possible better offer, which could come around €10/share, a 5.2% increase.</li>
</ul>


On 30 June, Apollo placed itself ahead of competitors with a €9.5/share cash offer for Applus Services SA (APPS SM), whose shares rose to €9.9, in the hope of a counter offer.
The market is capable of forcing Apollo to sweeten its proposal to reach 75% acceptances. Many risk arbitrageurs have positions in Applus and may not settle for the current premium.
This situation has been flagged for a while. If already long, it is worth holding for a possible better offer, which could come around €10/share, a 5.2% increase.


Apollo/Applus: Somewhat Cheap Offer and First Mover Advantage

United States

Apollo Global Management, Inc. operates as an alternative investment management company. The Company focuses on investing in yield, hybrid, and equity markets to generate retirement and investment income for clients. Apollo Global Management serves businesses and individuals worldwide.

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Apollo Global Management (APO US)

Integral Corporation IPO: New Price Range Is Tempting

Our analysis suggests that the revised IPO price range is attractive compared to peer multiples. The re-rating of peers since the release of the...

Arun George

Integral Corporation IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, we discuss forecasts and valuation. Our analysis suggests that the indicative IPO price range of JPY2,800-3,400 per share is...

Arun George

Integral Corporation IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rest on the declining mix of fee-earning AUM, growth driven by volatile investment income and uninspiring 1HFY22 performance in fee...

Arun George

Integral Corporation IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rest on rising AUM, strong operating income growth, cash flow potential through material unrealised carried interest and solid...

Arun George

Apollo/Applus: Somewhat Cheap Offer and First Mover Advantage

On 30 June, Apollo placed itself ahead of competitors with a €9.5/share cash offer for Applus, whose shares rose to €9.9, in the hope of a counter...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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