Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 4th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD27.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Ampol, Domino'S Pizza Enterprises, BHP, Fortescue.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 4th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD27.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Ampol, Domino'S Pizza Enterprises, BHP, Fortescue.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 4th): Ampol, Domino'S Pizza Enterprises, BHP, Fortescue

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

This morning real estate manager <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apn-property-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3730:1" rel="noopener">Apn Property Group (APD AU)</a> made an <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02373507-3A566928?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> it had entered into a Scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dexus" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:403:1" rel="noopener">Dexus Property (DXS AU)</a> at a price of A$0.915/share, a 50% premium to last close.
The Offer has the unanimous backing of APN directors. In addition, APN directors holding 33% of APN's outstanding shares intend to vote in favour of the Scheme.
APN Chairman Chris Aylward has separately granted Dexus a call option equal to 19.9% of APN's shares, exercisable in the event a competing proposal is announced.
The Scheme meeting is expected to be held mid-July with implementation potentially early August. 
Board support, a hefty premium to last close, and a decade-plus high - this is priced to complete and is trading accordingly.
More below the fold.

This morning real estate manager Apn Property Group (APD AU) made an announcement it had entered into a Scheme with Dexus Property (DXS AU) at a price of A$0.915/share, a 50% premium to last close.
The Offer has the unanimous backing of APN directors. In addition, APN directors holding 33% of APN's outstanding shares intend to vote in favour of the Scheme.
APN Chairman Chris Aylward has separately granted Dexus a call option equal to 19.9% of APN's shares, exercisable in the event a competing proposal is announced.
The Scheme meeting is expected to be held mid-July with implementation potentially early August. 
Board support, a hefty premium to last close, and a decade-plus high - this is priced to complete and is trading accordingly.
More below the fold.

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

Propertylink Group / Equity Capital Markets

Propertylink (PHL), an Australia-based real estate group, is looking to raise about A$500m. PHL is an internally managed real estate company that owns, manages and co-invests in industrial and logistics properties in Australia.In this insight, we compare the company with its peers, recently listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22748" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22748:1">Frasers Logistics &amp; Industrial (FLT SP)</a>  and with ASX listed IDR and TIX. We have some concerns about some of the company's directors background. Last but not the least we examine its valuation against its peers.  Please read this insight in conjunction with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4">Sumeet Singh</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/frasers-logistics-ipo-reasonable-valuation-but-decade-low-cap-rates-remain-a-worry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:4093">Frasers Logistics IPO - Reasonable Valuation but Decade Low Cap Rates Remain a Worry</a>.

Propertylink (PHL), an Australia-based real estate group, is looking to raise about A$500m. PHL is an internally managed real estate company that owns, manages and co-invests in industrial and logistics properties in Australia.In this insight, we compare the company with its peers, recently listed Frasers Logistics &amp; Industrial (FLT SP)  and with ASX listed IDR and TIX. We have some concerns about some of the company's directors background. Last but not the least we examine its valuation against its peers.  Please read this insight in conjunction with Sumeet Singh's Frasers Logistics IPO - Reasonable Valuation but Decade Low Cap Rates Remain a Worry.

Propertylink IPO: Decent Yield Comes with Quality Concerns

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

As a consequence of increasing global risks, tougher regulatory demands, intensifying pressure on net interest margins, higher bad debts and lower than expected returns on equity we reduce earnings forecasts, fair value estimates and rebase medium- to longer-term dividend payout ratios lower to more sustainable long-term levels for three of the four wide moat-rated Australian banks: Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank and Westpac Banking Corporation. We cut Australia and New Zealand Banking Group's earnings forecasts and fair value estimate in March 2016 and now rebase its longer-term dividend payout ratio lower. Our preferred banks are the big retail-focused, New South Wales-based, banks Westpac and Commonwealth Bank due to their lower risk profiles, higher ROEs, higher NIMs, lower cost/income ratios, consistently lower-loan-loss rates, less volatility in earnings, and larger exposures to the strongly performing New South Wales economy.Analyst: David Ellis

As a consequence of increasing global risks, tougher regulatory demands, intensifying pressure on net interest margins, higher bad debts and lower than expected returns on equity we reduce earnings forecasts, fair value estimates and rebase medium- to longer-term dividend payout ratios lower to more sustainable long-term levels for three of the four wide moat-rated Australian banks: Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank and Westpac Banking Corporation. We cut Australia and New Zealand Banking Group's earnings forecasts and fair value estimate in March 2016 and now rebase its longer-term dividend payout ratio lower. Our preferred banks are the big retail-focused, New South Wales-based, banks Westpac and Commonwealth Bank due to their lower risk profiles, higher ROEs, higher NIMs, lower cost/income ratios, consistently lower-loan-loss rates, less volatility in earnings, and larger exposures to the strongly performing New South Wales economy.Analyst: David Ellis

Challenges Mount for the Wide Moat-Rated Australian Banks

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome.  The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of tightening bank credit conditions, some softening recently in credit growth, cooler job vacancies, a stronger AUD, some renewed doubts on China and timing of the 2 July election suggest the RBA needs to be decisive and get ahead of expectations.  Consequently we see further weakness in the AUD and continue to favour gold as we discussed last week outlining risks in China that may spill over to global asset markets and the rebounding JPY that may push the BoJ toward more easing.

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome.  The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of tightening bank credit conditions, some softening recently in credit growth, cooler job vacancies, a stronger AUD, some renewed doubts on China and timing of the 2 July election suggest the RBA needs to be decisive and get ahead of expectations.  Consequently we see further weakness in the AUD and continue to favour gold as we discussed last week outlining risks in China that may spill over to global asset markets and the rebounding JPY that may push the BoJ toward more easing.

Australia

Dexus Industria REIT operates as a real estate investment trust. The Company invests in and owns interest in real estate properties throughout Australia, focusing on industrial, technology park, and business office assets.

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Dexus Industria REIT (DXI AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 4th): Ampol, Domino'S Pizza Enterprises, BHP, Fortescue

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Ampol, Domino'S Pizza Enterprises, BHP, Fortescue.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

APN Prop (APD AU): Dexus' Done Deal

Board support, a hefty premium to last close, and a decade-plus high - this is priced to complete and is trading accordingly.

David Blennerhassett

Propertylink IPO: Decent Yield Comes with Quality Concerns

Propertylink (PHL), an Australia-based real estate group, is looking to raise about A$500m. PHL is an internally managed real estate company that...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Challenges Mount for the Wide Moat-Rated Australian Banks

As a consequence of increasing global risks, tougher regulatory demands, intensifying pressure on net interest margins, higher bad debts and lower...

Morningstar, Inc.

AmpGFX - RBA Cut the Obvious Decision

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome. The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of...

Greg Gibbs

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