External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We anticipate margin contraction for steel companies within our coverage due to decreased steel price realizations (average HRC benchmark prices down 7% YoY and 5% QoQ in Q4FY24) and increased coking coal consumption costs (largely flat YoY but higher QoQ), despite a QoQ recovery in sales volumes driven by seasonally strong performance in Q4 (although volumes remain largely flat YoY).</li><li>We expect another good quarter for base metal stocks under our coverage.</li><li>Both Hindalco and NALCO are expected to report margin expansion YoY/QoQ on higher shipments, stable LME, and lower coal/power costs.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We anticipate margin contraction for steel companies within our coverage due to decreased steel price realizations (average HRC benchmark prices down 7% YoY and 5% QoQ in Q4FY24) and increased coking coal consumption costs (largely flat YoY but higher QoQ), despite a QoQ recovery in sales volumes driven by seasonally strong performance in Q4 (although volumes remain largely flat YoY).We expect another good quarter for base metal stocks under our coverage.Both Hindalco and NALCO are expected to report margin expansion YoY/QoQ on higher shipments, stable LME, and lower coal/power costs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Nalco’s Revenue stood at Rs 3,043 Cr, down 13%/4% YoY/QoQ, led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices.</li><li>EBITDA (up 19% YoY, down 33% QoQ) was a negative surprise due to a 29%/39% miss vs. consensus and our estimate, largely due to an unexpected surge in the Power and Fuel costs (up 14% QoQ, 19% higher than our estimates). </li><li>Hindalco’s Consolidated Revenue (down 4% YoY, up 2% QoQ), stood in line with our estimate at Rs 54,169 Cr. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nalco’s Revenue stood at Rs 3,043 Cr, down 13%/4% YoY/QoQ, led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices.EBITDA (up 19% YoY, down 33% QoQ) was a negative surprise due to a 29%/39% miss vs. consensus and our estimate, largely due to an unexpected surge in the Power and Fuel costs (up 14% QoQ, 19% higher than our estimates). Hindalco’s Consolidated Revenue (down 4% YoY, up 2% QoQ), stood in line with our estimate at Rs 54,169 Cr. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Sector Ideas - Metals and Mining (Q2FY24)

<ul><li>Samvat 2079 proved to be an intriguing year for the Indian equity market, characterized by notable volatility in the first half.</li><li>Several factors contributed to this turbulence, including a) A hawkish central bank view on the interest rates, b) Rising bond yields, c) Rising Covid-19 cases in China towards the end of 2022, d) Imposition of lockdowns in the Chinese economy, e) Union budget-related developments, and f) Other macroeconomic challenges.</li><li>These occurrences collectively subdued market performance in the first half of Samvat. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Samvat 2079 proved to be an intriguing year for the Indian equity market, characterized by notable volatility in the first half.Several factors contributed to this turbulence, including a) A hawkish central bank view on the interest rates, b) Rising bond yields, c) Rising Covid-19 cases in China towards the end of 2022, d) Imposition of lockdowns in the Chinese economy, e) Union budget-related developments, and f) Other macroeconomic challenges.These occurrences collectively subdued market performance in the first half of Samvat. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Our POW calls delivered an excellent Monthly strike rate of 84% in Oct’23.</li><li>Calls that successfully achieved their target were Nestle India (~10%), Aptus Value Housing Finance (10%), and Equitas Small Finance Bank (10%).</li><li>ICICI Bank LtdAxis Alpha reported an astounding monthly strike rate of 80% in Oct’23.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our POW calls delivered an excellent Monthly strike rate of 84% in Oct’23.Calls that successfully achieved their target were Nestle India (~10%), Aptus Value Housing Finance (10%), and Equitas Small Finance Bank (10%).ICICI Bank LtdAxis Alpha reported an astounding monthly strike rate of 80% in Oct’23.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Research Scorecard Report for Oct 2023

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replaced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> last week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> stops trading this week and should be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs in the ASX indices.</li>
<li>Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.</li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)/ Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replaced United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) last week.

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) stops trading this week and should be replaced by Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs in the ASX indices.
Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

India

APL Apollo Tubes Ltd. manufactures and exports galvanized steel tubes, galvanized steel pipes, and welded black pipes and tubes.

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Apl Apollo Tubes (APAT IN)

Metals - Q4FY24 Earnings Preview

Both Hindalco and NALCO are expected to report margin expansion YoY/QoQ on higher shipments, stable LME, and lower coal/power costs.

Axis Direct

Top Sector Ideas - Metals and Mining (Q2FY24)

Nalco’s Revenue stood at Rs 3,043 Cr, down 13%/4% YoY/QoQ, led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices. EBITDA (up 19% YoY, down 33% QoQ) was...

Axis Direct

Diwali Muhurat Picks SAMVAT 2080

Samvat 2079 proved to be an intriguing year for the Indian equity market, characterized by notable volatility in the first half.

Axis Direct

Axis Research Scorecard Report for Oct 2023

Our POW calls delivered an excellent Monthly strike rate of 84% in Oct’23. Calls that successfully achieved their target were Nestle India (~10%),...

Axis Direct

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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