Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>1st Vertical | Recycling and Renewables: A very important vertical segment helping APERAM Group to attain a neutral CO2 emission footprint.</li><li>Innovative business based on new technology. Companies active within the segment are ELG (Recycling), BioEnergia (charcoal production from forests; plant in Brazil, CO2 neutral), Recyco (metal recycling from dust).</li><li>Represented 13% of consolidated EBITDA in FY 2022.</li></ul>

1st Vertical | Recycling and Renewables: A very important vertical segment helping APERAM Group to attain a neutral CO2 emission footprint.Innovative business based on new technology. Companies active within the segment are ELG (Recycling), BioEnergia (charcoal production from forests; plant in Brazil, CO2 neutral), Recyco (metal recycling from dust).Represented 13% of consolidated EBITDA in FY 2022.

<div><div><div><ul><li>Aperam S.A. announced its financial results for the 4Q 2022.</li><li>Overall, the fourth quarter developed in line with expectations.</li><li>The import window has closed, leading imports back to the historical normal level. In the industrial side, energy sector is strong and O&amp;G is recovering.</li></ul></div></div></div>

Aperam S.A. announced its financial results for the 4Q 2022.Overall, the fourth quarter developed in line with expectations.The import window has closed, leading imports back to the historical normal level. In the industrial side, energy sector is strong and O&amp;G is recovering.

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">The past two weeks have been full of announcements by various companies in Europe’s industrial sector that they are either shutting down production or curtailing production due to spiraling energy costs. </span></li><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">This includes steel companies, fertilizer companies, aluminum foundries, and chemical companies which use natural gas in manufacturing to produce their end products. </span></li><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">This got me thinking these announcements may be just the next leg of continuing the theme started by Howard Mark’s memo (link below) of the “pendulum swing” whereby the inability to have cheap and stable energy prices will likely result in companies seeking alternative supply sources away from Europe.</span></li></ul>

The past two weeks have been full of announcements by various companies in Europe’s industrial sector that they are either shutting down production or curtailing production due to spiraling energy costs. This includes steel companies, fertilizer companies, aluminum foundries, and chemical companies which use natural gas in manufacturing to produce their end products. This got me thinking these announcements may be just the next leg of continuing the theme started by Howard Mark’s memo (link below) of the “pendulum swing” whereby the inability to have cheap and stable energy prices will likely result in companies seeking alternative supply sources away from Europe.

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos haven't shown a clear trend during July/beginning of August. Investors have favored Swedish hodlcos, disliked GBL's results and avoided the Heineken/Heineken Holdings trade.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV: Alba, 42.8%; GBL, 34.5%; Heineken Holdings to 21.5%; Industrivärden C, 7.8%; Investor B, 14.3%; Porsche Automobile Holding to 29.4%. Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 16.2%.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. If anything, recommended trades are: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Porsche, Rio Tinto (DLC).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos haven't shown a clear trend during July/beginning of August. Investors have favored Swedish hodlcos, disliked GBL's results and avoided the Heineken/Heineken Holdings trade.
Discounts to NAV: Alba, 42.8%; GBL, 34.5%; Heineken Holdings to 21.5%; Industrivärden C, 7.8%; Investor B, 14.3%; Porsche Automobile Holding to 29.4%. Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 16.2%.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. If anything, recommended trades are: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Porsche, Rio Tinto (DLC).


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: July ‘22 Report

Luxembourg

APERAM manufactures specialty steel. The Company produces stainless and grain-oriented and non grain-oriented electrical steel and nickel alloys. APERAM markets its products in Brazil, France, and Belgium.

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APERAM SA (APAM NA)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Aperam S.A. - Quick Note - July 3, 2023

1st Vertical | Recycling and Renewables: A very important vertical segment helping APERAM Group to attain a neutral CO2 emission footprint.

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Aperam S.A. - 4Q2022 Results

The import window has closed, leading imports back to the historical normal level. In the industrial side, energy sector is strong and O&G is...

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 8/29

The past two weeks have been full of announcements by various companies in Europe’s industrial sector that they are either shutting down production...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: July ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos haven't shown a clear trend during July/beg. of August. Investors have favored Swedish hodlcos, disliked GBL's...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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52-week Range

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