Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Deep-Sea container rates surged in May, yielding best read since June 2022</li>
<li>But volume growth into North American WC ports slowed noticeably...</li>
<li>We believe Q224 results will impress, and still like our Long/Short pairs</li>
</ul>


Deep-Sea container rates surged in May, yielding best read since June 2022
But volume growth into North American WC ports slowed noticeably...
We believe Q224 results will impress, and still like our Long/Short pairs


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Surged in May | Did Volume Growth Wobble? | (June 2024)

<ul>
<li>Our analysis suggests container rate momentum remained +ive in March</li>
<li>Despite higher fuel expense, core container margins likely rose Y/Y in Q124</li>
<li>Our L/S pair trade? It's worked, a little, but Evergreen shares have stayed firm</li>
</ul>


Our analysis suggests container rate momentum remained +ive in March
Despite higher fuel expense, core container margins likely rose Y/Y in Q124
Our L/S pair trade? It's worked, a little, but Evergreen shares have stayed firm


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | March Volumes Strong | Q1 Margins Likely Up Y/Y (April 2024)

<ul>
<li>Since October, Evergreen shares have performed well on rising spot rates</li>
<li>Over the same period, Maersk and ZIM shares fell on longer-term concerns</li>
<li>Pair trade idea: SHORT Evergreen vs LONG Maersk / ZIM position</li>
</ul>


Since October, Evergreen shares have performed well on rising spot rates
Over the same period, Maersk and ZIM shares fell on longer-term concerns
Pair trade idea: SHORT Evergreen vs LONG Maersk / ZIM position


Pair Trade Idea: Short Evergreen Against Long Maersk / ZIM

<ul>
<li>January pricing momentum improved, helped by more operating days &amp; re-routes</li>
<li>Throughput growth remained strong last month, including +18% into WC ports</li>
<li>Near term reality far rosier than downbeat view from industry giant Maersk</li>
</ul>


January pricing momentum improved, helped by more operating days &amp; re-routes
Throughput growth remained strong last month, including +18% into WC ports
Near term reality far rosier than downbeat view from industry giant Maersk


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | LNY Timing, Red Sea Re-Routes Boosted Revenue | (February 2024)

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Early weakness in European shipping demand, while US demand remains strong</li><li>The freight rate story is more likely to impact USD-flation than EUR-flation</li><li>Expect another spike in freight rates when spring volumes arrive</li></ul>

Early weakness in European shipping demand, while US demand remains strongThe freight rate story is more likely to impact USD-flation than EUR-flationExpect another spike in freight rates when spring volumes arrive

Suez Watch: Euro demand cannot cope with these prices!

Denmark

A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S operates as an integrated transport and logistics company. The Company offers container vessels, supply ships, special vessels, terminals, tug boat activities and reefer container box manufacturing. A.P. Moller-Maersk serves clients worldwide.

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AP Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKA DC)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Surged in May | Did Volume Growth Wobble? | (June 2024)

Deep-sea container shipping price momentum surged in May, even though volumes into the North American West Coast slowed. We think this is a head...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | March Volumes Strong | Q1 Margins Likely Up Y/Y (April 2024)

Container rate momentum remained +ive in March, & we believe carriers' margins probably improved Y/Y in Q124 (despite higher fuel expenses). Our L...

Tracking Traffic

Pair Trade Idea: Short Evergreen Against Long Maersk / ZIM

The divergent performances of container carriers Evergreen, Maersk, and ZIM since Q4 last year suggest a LONG Maersk/ZIM against SHORT Evergreen...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | LNY Timing, Red Sea Re-Routes Boosted Revenue | (February 2024)

Container shipping price momentum in January jumped on Red Sea re-routes and a Y/Y increase in operating days. We highlight a growing gap between...

Tracking Traffic

Suez Watch: Euro demand cannot cope with these prices!

Takeaways: Early weakness in European shipping demand, while US demand remains strong The freight rate story is more likely to impact USD-flation...

Steno Research

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