Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

I recently witnessed a typical mistake in using EV (enterprise value; short form, market cap + net debt), where the author used it interchangeably with market cap. This got me to thinking how recent non-freshly minted MBAs as well as maybe even other three letter certified specialists, at the margin, may cut corners when valuing their stocks and portfolios and end up siding with momentum investors.It is still fresh in my mind how many (not all) colleagues, especially China-linked, used to care more about inside scoops than valuation approaches. I tend to see many tech plays in light of momentum and not valuation. We could call many of these counters CNBC or Cramer stocks.The discussion is dividend into a discussion and interview on faulty uses of the cost of capital in shipping,  as well as a discussion on some of the mechanical problems now inherent in WACC, especially as it applies to shipping and long-term finance of cyclical assets.

I recently witnessed a typical mistake in using EV (enterprise value; short form, market cap + net debt), where the author used it interchangeably with market cap. This got me to thinking how recent non-freshly minted MBAs as well as maybe even other three letter certified specialists, at the margin, may cut corners when valuing their stocks and portfolios and end up siding with momentum investors.It is still fresh in my mind how many (not all) colleagues, especially China-linked, used to care more about inside scoops than valuation approaches. I tend to see many tech plays in light of momentum and not valuation. We could call many of these counters CNBC or Cramer stocks.The discussion is dividend into a discussion and interview on faulty uses of the cost of capital in shipping,  as well as a discussion on some of the mechanical problems now inherent in WACC, especially as it applies to shipping and long-term finance of cyclical assets.

Frankenstein WACCs. False Idols of Equity, Debt (And Shipping Interview with Sr. Investor)

Lead Analyst, Credit Research, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Konstantinos Oikonomopoulos

Lead Analyst, Credit Research

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Strong shipping bonds issuance in 2017<ul><li>A growing number of shipping companies have taken advantage of the low interest rate environment and tapped the debt capital markets in the past year. This comes at a time when the availability of funds for the shipping industry is declining. We highlight four reasons behind the increase in high yield bond volumes coming from the shipping sector:</li></ul>1.Scarcity of funds from the banking sector. The regulatory pressures are forcing these institutions to increase…

Strong shipping bonds issuance in 2017A growing number of shipping companies have taken advantage of the low interest rate environment and tapped the debt capital markets in the past year. This comes at a time when the availability of funds for the shipping industry is declining. We highlight four reasons behind the increase in high yield bond volumes coming from the shipping sector:1.Scarcity of funds from the banking sector. The regulatory pressures are forcing these institutions to increase…

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

We began to turn cautious on container shipping last Summer and became more negative as Summer turned to Fall. Our view was that average freight rates and carrier profitability had improved sharply in the months following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18689" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18689:1">Hanjin Shipping Co Ltd (117930 KS)</a>'s August 2016 bankruptcy, and that further fundamental improvements would be much harder to come by. About six months after turning cautious on container shipping, we remain negative on the sector, and we believe 2018 will turn out to be worse…

We began to turn cautious on container shipping last Summer and became more negative as Summer turned to Fall. Our view was that average freight rates and carrier profitability had improved sharply in the months following Hanjin Shipping Co Ltd (117930 KS)'s August 2016 bankruptcy, and that further fundamental improvements would be much harder to come by. About six months after turning cautious on container shipping, we remain negative on the sector, and we believe 2018 will turn out to be worse…

Container Shipping Sector: Six Months of Declining Share Prices Explained in Three Charts

Equity analyst - Containers, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Nilesh Tiwary

Equity analyst - Containers

AP Moller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moller Maersk reported its 4Q17 and FY17 numbers on 9 February 2018. The company’s underlying profit from continuing operations stood at USD 356m. However, after including the impact from the discontinued operations, total losses turned out to be USD 1.2bn (DMFR’s loss estimate USD 1.03bn). Maersk Line reported a full-year profit of USD 541m for FY17, slightly lower than our estimate of USD 596m. After initially reacting negatively on Friday, the stock at the time of writing today was up ~3%…

AP Moller Maersk reported its 4Q17 and FY17 numbers on 9 February 2018. The company’s underlying profit from continuing operations stood at USD 356m. However, after including the impact from the discontinued operations, total losses turned out to be USD 1.2bn (DMFR’s loss estimate USD 1.03bn). Maersk Line reported a full-year profit of USD 541m for FY17, slightly lower than our estimate of USD 596m. After initially reacting negatively on Friday, the stock at the time of writing today was up ~3%…

AP Moller Maersk – Results on Expected Lines

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

Reiterating our neutral view with a 6% cut in fair value: APMM’s share price has mostly been on a free fall since July 2017. As a reminder, our Neutral case was based on our view that the lower-than-expected spot rates would find its way into the East-West contract rates, thus limiting Maersk Line’s profitability in 2018. While this is true for all other operators in our coverage list, APMM is also grappling with other issues, including divestment of energy assets and the acquisition of Hamburg…

Reiterating our neutral view with a 6% cut in fair value: APMM’s share price has mostly been on a free fall since July 2017. As a reminder, our Neutral case was based on our view that the lower-than-expected spot rates would find its way into the East-West contract rates, thus limiting Maersk Line’s profitability in 2018. While this is true for all other operators in our coverage list, APMM is also grappling with other issues, including divestment of energy assets and the acquisition of Hamburg…

AP Moller Maersk - Sometime to Go Before Hitting Full Throttle

Denmark

A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S operates as an integrated transport and logistics company. The Company offers container vessels, supply ships, special vessels, terminals, tug boat activities and reefer container box manufacturing. A.P. Moller-Maersk serves clients worldwide.

D/S Norden A/S is an international shipping company.  The Company operates a fleet of modern bulk vessels and tankers consisting of company owned vessels and long-term and short-term chartered cargo ships.  D/S Norden transports commodities such as coal, fertilizer, grain, sugar, and steels, as well as crude oil and other liquids.  The Company operates worldwide.

DFDS A/S provides passenger and freight shipping services, and offers shipping related logistics solutions.  The Company focuses on two business divisions: DFDS Tor Line operates roro liner traffic in the North Sea, and DFDS Seaways runs overnight cruise ferries between cities in Northern Europe.  DFDS sells to customers with large shipping requirements and to car traveling tourists.

DSV A/S is the parent company for a group of companies that offer transport and logistics.   The Group provides truck, ship, and plane transport services, as well as warehousing and logistic services.  DSV operates in Europe, North America, and the Far East.

DSV A/S provides transport and logistics services. The Company offers road, marine, and air transport services, as well as warehousing, purchase order management, and other logistic solutions. DSV serves customers worldwide.

Kobenhavns Lufthavne A/S (Copenhagen Airports A/S - CPH) owns and operates Kastrup, the international airport in Copenhagen, and Roskilde airport.  The Company provides traffic management, maintenance, and security services, as well as manages the Airport Shopping Center and airport projects.  Kobenhavns Lufthavne also has investments in airports in Mexico, England, and China.

Vestas Wind Systems A/S develops, manufactures, and markets wind turbines that generate electricity. The Company installs and maintenance turbines. Vestas Wind Systems serves customers worldwide.

Rockwool International A/S develops and produces stone wool, a fiber made from melted volcanic rock, and stone-wool-based products such as insulation and fire protection and noise and vibration control products.  The Company's products line also includes acoustic ceilings, facade panels, and horticultural substrates.  Rockwool produces in several countries and sells worldwide.

ISS A/S provides cleaning, office support, property, catering, and integrated facility services. The Company offers security, facility management, change management, space management, and consulting services.

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd offers marine freight transportation services.  The Company offers container shipping, dry bulk shipping, logistics services, freight forwarding, and terminal and container leasing services internationally.  COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd operates container ships and terminals, and manufactures shipping containers.

Orient Overseas International Ltd, through its subsidiaries, owns and leases ships, operates terminals, and provides freight forwarding and container transportation services.  The Company also develops and invests in properties, leases equipment, and invests in securities.

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. operates marine cargo and passenger transportation around the world.  The Company provides ocean liner, bulk carrier, car carrier, unscheduled specialized carrier, and energy transportation services. The Company also offers insurance, warehousing, and land transportation services.  Items transported include automobile, grain, petroleum, coal, iron ore, and wood chip.

Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha mainly provides marine transportation services and transportation management solution from international hub ports to both domestic and international ports. The Company operates container transportation, tramp and specialized carriers, and logistics and cruise lines. Nippon Yusen offers scheduled and unscheduled transportation services around the world.

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

Evergreen Marine Corp. (Taiwan) Ltd. transports freight by ships. The Company operates container ships to move freight throughout the world. Evergreen Marine has interests in terminals, airline operations and motor freight transportation, as well as container manufacturing.

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. provides marine transportation, warehousing, and cargo handling services.  The Company operates container ship, specialized carrier, oil tankers, and ferry.  Items transported include coal, iron ore, grain, logs, aluminum, cement, industrial salt, copper ore, wood chips, paper products, chemical products, gasoline and other petroleum products, LPG, and other cargoes.

Kuehne + Nagel International AG transports freight worldwide.  The Company operates sea, land, and rail freight transportation businesses and warehousing and distribution facilities.  Kuehne + Nagel also provides related special services.

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. offers marine shipping services. The Company provides refined oil transportation, crude oil transportation, and other services. COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation also ships iron ores, dry bulks, coal, and other products.

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H)

Kirby Corporation operates a fleet of inland tank barges.  The Company transports industrial chemicals, refined petroleum products, black oil products, and agricultural chemicals.  Kirby also overhauls and services diesel engines employed in marine, power generation, and rail applications.

A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S is a conglomerate with diversified holdings. The Company operates a fleet including container vessels, tankers, supply ships, special vessels, APM terminials, and oil drilling rigs.  A.P. Moeller-Maersk also operates industrial business and explores for and produces oil and gas. The Company is active worldwide.

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AP Moeller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKB DC)

Frankenstein WACCs. False Idols of Equity, Debt (And Shipping Interview with Sr. Investor)

I recently witnessed a typical mistake in using EV (enterprise value; short form, market cap + net debt), where the author used it interchangeably...

Charles De Trenck

Container Shipping - Fixed Income

Strong shipping bonds issuance in 2017A growing number of shipping companies have taken advantage of the low interest rate environment and tapped...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

AP Moller Maersk – Results on Expected Lines

AP Moller Maersk reported its 4Q17 and FY17 numbers on 9 February 2018. The company’s underlying profit from continuing operations stood at USD...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

AP Moller Maersk - Sometime to Go Before Hitting Full Throttle

Reiterating our neutral view with a 6% cut in fair value: APMM’s share price has mostly been on a free fall since July 2017. As a reminder, our...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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Frankenstein WACCs. False Idols of Equity, Debt (And Shipping Interview with Sr. Investor)

I recently witnessed a typical mistake in using EV (enterprise value; short form, market cap + net debt), where the author used it interchangeably...

Charles De Trenck

Container Shipping - Fixed Income

Strong shipping bonds issuance in 2017A growing number of shipping companies have taken advantage of the low interest rate environment and tapped...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Container Shipping Sector: Six Months of Declining Share Prices Explained in Three Charts

We began to turn cautious on container shipping last Summer and became more negative as Summer turned to Fall. Our view was that average freight...

Daniel Hellberg

AP Moller Maersk – Results on Expected Lines

AP Moller Maersk reported its 4Q17 and FY17 numbers on 9 February 2018. The company’s underlying profit from continuing operations stood at USD...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

AP Moller Maersk - Sometime to Go Before Hitting Full Throttle

Reiterating our neutral view with a 6% cut in fair value: APMM’s share price has mostly been on a free fall since July 2017. As a reminder, our...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research